Festus Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Looking at Millersville University's official snowfall data for this winter shows the following: November - 6.3" (all on the 15th) December - Trace January - 6.0" ( and a trace 3 times) Plenty of winter to go but has it ever been the case that a) November had the largest single snow event and b) November was the snowiest month? I think a) probably happened but b) would have to be unprecedented. EDIT Did a little digging - 1938 - November 24 (12 inches TIES all of January 1939 total) 1953 - November 6 (13.5 inches but January 1954 total is 13.7") 1972 - November 30 (3.1", rest of the winter was 1.0" total) So would not be unique if November ends up the snowiest day and/or month but certainly rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 The NAM continues to suggest we have a frozen storm coming up Wed afternoon and evening...up a bit from the previous Thursday thought. It actually shows significant snow accumulation but I am not buying that yet as 850's are quite warm. If it gets snow through that level it will be wet and fat. I do not see a particularly strong CAD signature at the surface (though at 700MB it is there) vs. simply the front getting past us and the air being just cold enough to have to watch for sleet/freezing rain and the NAM snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 hour ago, kerplunk said: I once arrived home and started up my driveway (it was raining with bare ground) and by the time I got up to the house it was snowing and the ground was white. Turned around and went back down to the bottom of my drive and it was still raining. Drove back up to the house and it was still snowing. Sometimes the dividing line can be very thin. My driveway was just shy of 1/4 mile long with a switchback. This was in NE PA around Montrose. Hilltops with snow at tops and bottoms with rain was not uncommon in that area. Especially driving along Route 6. But in all the time I lived there this was the only time I saw a difference between the bottom of my driveway versus up at the house. It was a weird experience. Used to be a beautiful area up around there until fracking took over. That is one steep hill! Pretty amazing. Kind of like a tropical rain shower where it rains on one side of the house but not the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Festus said: Looking at Millersville University's official snowfall data for this winter shows the following: November - 6.3" (all on the 15th) December - Trace January - 6.0" ( and a trace 3 times) Plenty of winter to go but has it ever been the case that a) November had the largest single snow event and b) November was the snowiest month? I think a) probably happened but b) would have to be unprecedented. EDIT Did a little digging - 1938 - November 24 (12 inches TIES all of January 1939 total) 1953 - November 6 (13.5 inches but January 1954 total is 13.7") 1972 - November 30 (3.1", rest of the winter was 1.0" total) So would not be unique if November ends up the snowiest day and/or month but certainly rare. I love reading stuff like this...did not think about the significance and rarity of having more snow in November than any month in winter. FWIW, MDT squeaked out more snow in Jan than Nov this season but it was only about 1/2" apart so basically the same thought of how pedestrian the snow fall totals have been this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 14 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I love reading stuff like this...did not think about the significance and rarity of having more snow in November than any month in winter. FWIW, MDT squeaked out more snow in Jan than Nov this season but it was only about 1/2" apart so basically the same thought of how pedestrian the snow fall totals have been this winter. MDT is still Above normal snow for the season at 19.4 inches as of today. The average through today is 15.3 inches. MDT is only about 12 inches below climo seasonal average as of today. I don’t care whether my snow comes in October or April. I enjoy every flake. I think some folks in here would feel better about this winter if the November storm happened a few weeks later in December instead of November. I also think many people on here forget the the LSV only averages around 31 inches of snow per season. We still have 2 months to score snow ! I think another Above climo season is underway! These just some random winter thoughts that are directed at no one in particular, but I just wanted to put it out there for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 38 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: The NAM continues to suggest we have a frozen storm coming up Wed afternoon and evening...up a bit from the previous Thursday thought. It actually shows significant snow accumulation but I am not buying that yet as 850's are quite warm. If it gets snow through that level it will be wet and fat. I do not see a particularly strong CAD signature at the surface (though at 700MB it is there) vs. simply the front getting past us and the air being just cold enough to have to watch for sleet/freezing rain and the NAM snow storm. Very interesting... has any other model shown this recently? I think many folks, including me, had written off any winter weather here until next weekend at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Very interesting... has any other model shown this recently? I think many folks, including me, had written off any winter weather here until next weekend at the earliest. The FV3 has been advertising it for several days...loses it sometimes then brings it back. Bit of a long shot but if that front makes it through here and a weak wristed system goes to our west there is certainly a chance for some frozen even if it eventually leads to rain. No front and it is a rainer. Here is an FV3 panel from yesterday showing some snow as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 33 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: That is one steep hill! Pretty amazing. Kind of like a tropical rain shower where it rains on one side of the house but not the other. Haha. Exactly. Almost didn't buy the place due to the steepness of the driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 It's 46 absolutely beautiful, wonderful degrees here in Tamaqua!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 18 minutes ago, Voyager said: It's 46 absolutely beautiful, wonderful degrees here in Tamaqua!!! Same temp here! Snowpack is taking a big hit today. And the upcoming rain will probably all but wipe it out. Although, I've thought that many times in the past and have been surprised how it can often manage to hang in there. I actually wouldn't mind a clean slate by the time the 11th rolls around and we swing back to a more winter-like pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Basically it feels like June outside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Just shy of the (50) mark at 49.8 degrees after a low of 15.8. Got a 35-degree diurnal going now. Feels great and the sun feels warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 The 12z Euro & GFS-FV3 both like the idea of snow for CTP by next Tuesday. There are track & timing differences, but even with a west track, the Euro put down a good swath of front end snow. The MJO forecasts for today continued to move towards & into phase 8 by the end of next week, which is excellent for us. The last 3 weeks of February should provide us with plenty of winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 7 hours ago, bubbler86 said: The FV3 has been advertising it for several days...loses it sometimes then brings it back. Bit of a long shot but if that front makes it through here and a weak wristed system goes to our west there is certainly a chance for some frozen even if it eventually leads to rain. No front and it is a rainer. Here is an FV3 panel from yesterday showing some snow as well... Nam took a step back for Wed but FV3 still advertises a period of snow before changing to rain. Still worth watching in my opinion. Nam lost the snow because it delayed the precip getting into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 4 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z Euro & GFS-FV3 both like the idea of snow for CTP by next Tuesday. There are track & timing differences, but even with a west track, the Euro put down a good swath of front end snow. The MJO forecasts for today continued to move towards & into phase 8 by the end of next week, which is excellent for us. The last 3 weeks of February should provide us with plenty of winter weather. It would be nice to get 3 or so 3"-6"/4"-8" snow events to finish out feb. Haven't had a bunch of those in a month in awhile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 51 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: It would be nice to get 3 or so 3"-6"/4"-8" snow events to finish out feb. Haven't had a bunch of those in a month in awhile. Agreed. Was up north this weekend and it felt like real winter. I hope by later this week we are back to tracking what looks like an active period starting next week. Didn’t dig much but what I saw was decent and that was ol man gfs and fv3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 The 0z Euro put most of CTP on the snow side of the boundary for early next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Check out the crazy temperature inversion this morning. It's 53 in Hazleton, 52 in Tamaqua, and only 40 in Allentown and 38 in Reading... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Looks quite rainy late this week. Like old times. Also I will say the previous week and half were just a fun winter ride. The snow, while not much, was fun and the cold was real. That was a great winter period. I'm over 20" of snow so even if we're shut out going forward (which would SUCK) it's not like this winter was the worst thing ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Hit 62 this afternoon in Tamaqua according to my weather app. Quite impressive after being -1 on Saturday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 While us snow hounds suffer through losing our precious snow at least the 18z fv3 says we go back to lots of opps as we go zonal next week with multiple vorts taking aim at us. Couple nice hits verbatim. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: While us snow hounds suffer through losing our precious snow at least the 18z fv3 says we go back to lots of opps as we go zonal next week with multiple vorts taking aim at us. Couple nice hits verbatim. Yes, things should get very interesting beginning early next week. The 12z Euro & GFS FV3 both have snow events for us by next Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 It was gorgeous today. Almost got to 60. Saw people taking walks wearing nothing but t-shirts. Here's hoping we get one or two more decently sizes snowstorms before spring officially arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 The 0z Euro displayed a fantastic snow Storm for next Tuesday. It tracks a low towards Ohio, but then develops a secondary low off of the Virginia coast that takes over. There is very good CAD with the initial front end thump of snow, then possible mixing in the LSV, then back to a several hour period of snow as the coastal takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Inside 24 hrs hours there are still signs of a possible quick burst of snow for people in the North side or Northeast of the LSV. The F3 is especially bullish with the Nam not far behind. All based on the timing of the precip in conjunction with the actual track of the low. Nam actually tracks the shortwave south of PA. In addition the USV could be facing a decent ice event. The F3 shows 2-3" in MDT but still not buying into that...or maybe some grass accumulation plus this could include sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 29 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Inside 24 hrs hours there are still signs of a possible quick burst of snow for people in the North side or Northeast of the LSV. The F3 is especially bullish with the Nam not far behind. All based on the timing of the precip in conjunction with the actual track of the low. Nam actually tracks the shortwave south of PA. In addition the Upper LSV could be facing a decent ice event. The F3 shows 2-3" in MDT but still not buying into that...or maybe some grass accumulation plus this could include sleet. Some of the wrf suite show similar. Looks like N and E of Hbg should be prepared for a little surprise. Looking at morning runs, we may start snowpack rebuilding once again. GFS boys have it, Euro (as Blizz posted) has it. Sure hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Some of the wrf suite show similar. Looks like N and E of Hbg should be prepared for a little surprise. Looking at morning runs, we may start snowpack rebuilding once again. GFS boys have it, Euro (as Blizz posted) has it. Sure hope so. You should especially be hugging the FV3 for tomorrow. Ha. I am torn on next week as I will be in Florida Sun to Thursday so I am hoping the train of shortwaves starts building pack later in the week but does seem like Tuesday is a big time hit risk right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: You should especially be hugging the FV3 for tomorrow. Ha. I am torn on next week as I will be in Florida Sun to Thursday so I am hoping the train of shortwaves starts building pack later in the week but does seem like Tuesday is a big time hit risk right now. yeah, I saw that. Unfortunately, I think I'm out on this one, short of a little snizzzle or sleet/zr for a brief period. I'd think Voyager and wmspt and poconos have best shot...depending on how cold it can get tonight. WRT next week, all models show Mon-wed timeframe as next appreciable chance at winter lovin. I'm just glad most have something, so hopefully while model watching in my undershorts for the rest of this week, I'll hopefully be able to put some clothing back on over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: yeah, I saw that. Unfortunately, I think I'm out on this one, short of a little snizzzle or sleet/zr for a brief period. I'd think Voyager and wmspt and poconos have best shot...depending on how cold it can get tonight. WRT next week, all models show Mon-wed timeframe as next appreciable chance at winter lovin. I'm just glad most have something, so hopefully while model watching in my undershorts for the rest of this week, I'll hopefully be able to put some clothing back on over the weekend. I am not flying into MDT right now but can still see TMI! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: I am not flying into MDT right now but can still see TMI! looking at ens guidance overnight, it looks like there is not much consensus beyond 5-7 days. Hug the EPS as it is close to something good. GEFS gets there way out, but its way out, so normal caveats apply. GEPS....meh. A few weeks ago I told myself to no longer get lost in model watching for any epic patterns that never seem to materialize this year. I'm now on the bootleggin train for the rest of this season, and will hopefully scratch and scrape my way into winter fun. Stable patterns are great, but obviously a rartity around here, so i guess it is what it is. I'm seeing snow every week, and while I just wish we could keep it, I'm not complaining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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