anotherman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said: Why don't we have winter storm watches out yet for Monday night/ Tuesday? The expected combination of snowfall and ice accretion should easily meet WSW criteria. Unless they are going with a watch in the afternoon package and then an upgrade to warning tomorrow morning? Because it has been a winter where no guidance is to be believed. Probably being super cautious since they've busted on almost every storm so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I’m more surprised there isn’t a WWA for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, canderson said: I’m more surprised there isn’t a WWA for tonight. Yeah, they're not expecting more than 2" (in most of the southern 1/3) which is the level over which it's issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 They've just removed the steak from their eyes over the last episode. They're going to be a little slow to the call this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 The UKMET has not backed down at 12z. It still has a CTP bullseye! Again, I think most of us could live with half of this amount ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 GFS is what they will ride from way season has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 The 12z GEFS upped the ante for CTP! Most ensemble members bring a widespread 4-8 inches of snow to most of us by Wednesday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 20 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z GEFS upped the ante for CTP! Most ensemble members bring a widespread 4-8 inches of snow to most of us by Wednesday am. getting pretty close to the event for ensembles, but that being said, there is still some spread between members in regards to snow amounts around central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 The 12z Euro seems to be locked in ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 hour ago, canderson said: I’m more surprised there isn’t a WWA for tonight. There is one issued for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Why is Euro less for northern tier by NY...seems they'd be favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 36 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z Euro seems to be locked in ! man i wanna believe it and the Ukie are onto something. I'll put my confidence in anything that gives me snow right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 37 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z Euro seems to be locked in ! Don't ever remember a lakes cutter delivering double digits here. There's a first time for everything I guess haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Don't ever remember a lakes cutter delivering double digits here. There's a first time for everything I guess haha. I think that High up north means business for us in CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Canderson and Blizz going to the MA and representing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I think that High up north means business for us in CTP. Yea it certainly does, this should be a really good CAD setup. I dunno if I buy widespread warning snowfall totals yet. The 12z NAM weatherbell snowmap really, REALLY had a ton of inflation via heavy mixed precip, although a few inches probably came from tonights wave as well. There's a lot of sleet and freezing rain conditionals on P-types. This is the Accuweather version of the 12z NAM snowfall, which I feel is more reasonable. Now the Euro's take seems to have heavier precip up front in the snow phase of the system, especially in the central counties thus the snowfall bullseye. The Euro's snow totals are legitmate, and it still has a drawn out mixing phase after like the NAM does. Warning totals are doable if we get whacked with heavy precip up front. The Euro/UK seem to be the models hanging on to keeping the column good for snow the longest. I'm def leaning colder solutions for this setup, but my concern would be enough warming aloft that a mix to sleet takes the top off potential snow amounts. I like a region wide high end advisory snow wise to start with... say Central counties 4-5", LSV-southern tier 2-4". Location of meso features (heavier precip via forcing etc) could dictate where a region of warning snows resides. Right now I think 6-8" is top end on snowfall potential, and for a primary into the lakes region seeing that anywhere in C-PA would be impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 The 12z EPS & Control run say game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 42 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Canderson and Blizz going to the MA and representing! Who in here that posts even semi regularly is trolling the MA? Most of our regulars usually keep to themselves up here.. and the ones that post down there are on the edge of that subforum. The only thing I've seen other than weather discussion in here lately is some enlightening advice on steaks, moose biscuits, and kanjer cakes.. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Who in here that posts even semi regularly is trolling the MA? Most of our regulars usually keep to themselves up here.. and the ones that post down there are on the edge of that subforum. The only thing I've seen other than weather discussion in here lately is some enlightening advice on steaks, moose biscuits, and kanjer cakes.. lol. i am not sure who is "trolling" and as all I have seen is the occasional poster, myself included, join in the convo and then a new guy that keeps talking about Harrisburg as if he is the wrong forum. This "you are in the wrong forum" stuff is for the birds in most cases. I will only speak for myself when I say that anyone from the MA, NE, NYC, anywhere...is welcome to contribute to any board I am part of as we are all here for enjoyment of weather tracking and such...especially winter weather for those here now. If someone from another forum is always coming into sub forums and trying work up the crowd that is not totally cool but as you stated I have not seen that and that would be what I consider trolling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Has anyone got to projected temps today? I think I was to be 35, I’m not sure I’ll go above the 29 I’m sitting at currently! May work out in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Liking the look of NAM and Euro.Several inches of snow before change over.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Regardless of snow maps and sleet vs snow the 18Z has a nice 1-2 shot and is certainly deserving of a warning if its depiction is close to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 finally some gd respect for my superior weather forecasting ability's. Its kanjer cakes for all of us this time around I tell ya starting tonight. The moose biscuits will move in by tomorrow afternoon hopefully by 4:20 pm . The hot air from the schumerpelosi BS belt should stay well south down around DC so the whole thing doesn't melt away quicker than it falls. Should the shumerpelosi BS belt lift north a little dont be surprised to wake up with a little BS in your back yard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Flatheadsickness said: finally some gd respect for my superior weather forecasting ability's. Its kanjer cakes for all of us this time around I tell ya starting tonight. The moose biscuits will move in by tomorrow afternoon hopefully by 4:20 pm . The hot air from the schumerpelosi BS belt should stay well south down around DC so the whole thing doesn't melt away quicker than it falls. Should the shumerpelosi BS belt lift north a little dont be surprised to wake up with a little BS in your back yard. You stoned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, Flatheadsickness said: finally some gd respect for my superior weather forecasting ability's. Its kanjer cakes for all of us this time around I tell ya starting tonight. The moose biscuits will move in by tomorrow afternoon hopefully by 4:20 pm . The hot air from the schumerpelosi BS belt should stay well south down around DC so the whole thing doesn't melt away quicker than it falls. Should the shumerpelosi BS belt lift north a little dont be surprised to wake up with a little BS in your back yard. Huh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 21 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Regardless of snow maps and sleet vs snow the 18Z has a nice 1-2 shot and is certainly deserving of a warning if its depiction is close to correct. Yea this is kind of crazy. A cutter like this and we might be seeing a warning level snow/ice event. When do you return? The long range is starting to look very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 The new NAM was pretty close to making this whole ordeal one event in the southern tier. Very little break in between. HRRR looks pretty good currently for the western PA gang with tonight's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 Watches just issued, entire CTP CWA. Edit: Glancing at the products, pretty uniform on snow totals. up to 6" central counties, 4-8" north central and 3-6 Sus Valley. Up to a tenth ice in north central/Sus Valley and 0.25" in central counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Watch issued for the whole forum. 3-6 for Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Nanny is all worked up for this event. She is out in the shed already with her conair removing the ice cicles from her beef curtains singing Jackson Browne's song for adom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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