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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion


MAG5035
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6 minutes ago, Ruin said:

I want to say it was 1996 we had a sleet storm that looked like a snow storm. 4 or more inchs of sleet it was crazy but it was drivable but it was a slow go cause we had 2 inchs of snow before hand.

With that much sleet you would have to forgo building a Snow Man and chose to go with a Sleet Stack instead.

latest?cb=20130602174907

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0z NAM at 34 hours v. 0z HRRR which went out to 34/36 hours. Depending on the source of the model run, the NAM had both sleet and zr as dominant transitional types. TT had a widespread extended period of sleet across most of the central counties while Accuwx's ptype map has a ton of freezing rain, which the above pivotal weather map seems to be reflecting. 

1420302511_ScreenShot2019-02-10at9_36_16PM.thumb.png.2a4180285beaa351d2e2499542afa878.png

Screen Shot 2019-02-10 at 9.37.49 PM.png

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I have noticed that the older 12km NAM grossly overdoes freezing rain on the Pivotal maps.  If it's out go look at 3km NAM and see how much it has.

Meanwhile I love the fact that the HRRR still has all of us pure snow (LSV) even up to 5AM Tues.  Even the TT Nam map shows it only just going over to sleet at that time.  Overall, that is a much later time for the mix to be developing than the timing in our grid forecasts, which I think show sleet mixing in by midnight.

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11 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

With that much sleet you would have to forgo building a Snow Man and chose to go with a Sleet Stack instead.

latest?cb=20130602174907

hah i see what you did :) couldnt do any thing really Tho it was fun sledding but if you fell off down the hill you got road rash.

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13 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

0z NAM at 34 hours v. 0z HRRR which went out to 34/36 hours. Depending on the source of the model run, the NAM had both sleet and zr as dominant transitional types. TT had a widespread extended period of sleet across most of the central counties while Accuwx's ptype map has a ton of freezing rain, which the above pivotal weather map seems to be reflecting. 

1420302511_ScreenShot2019-02-10at9_36_16PM.thumb.png.2a4180285beaa351d2e2499542afa878.png

Screen Shot 2019-02-10 at 9.37.49 PM.png

I honestly think some of these models/maps with the change over earlier runs from early sun and last night are gonna bust bad. I think the change over to snow takes a bit longer and we stay sleet frz instead of going to all rain. i still think we will see a hour or 2 of just rain. but the way some things are setting up even tho we have a cutter to the west looks like a colder solution will be the way things go.

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8 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I have noticed that the older 12km NAM grossly overdoes freezing rain on the Pivotal maps.  If it's out go look at 3km NAM and see how much it has.

Meanwhile I love the fact that the HRRR still has all of us pure snow (LSV) even up to 5AM Tues.  Even the TT Nam map shows it only just going over to sleet at that time.  Overall, that is a much later time for the mix to be developing than the timing in our grid forecasts, which I think show sleet mixing in by midnight.

3K had a similar look but much less in the totals department but I have seen the 3K come up way to short on qpf totals so I personally do not trust it for that vs. trends.  I agree the 12K/old Nam is overdone on totals but the time period of non snow is the same between both.  12 hours of moderate to heavy ice was the main take away and that is a lot.  I am staying up to see what Goofus has to say. 

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10 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

On Pivotal, the NAM and the HRRR at 12Z Tues show the entire column from surface up to 500 at -1 or colder.  That would imply that it's still snowing at 7AM I would think.

I was still on the 3K so looked and at 12Z Tuesday the 540 Line is well up into PA and much of S/W 2/3rd of the state is over freezing at 500

image.thumb.png.9a83b51cf1b55f976259358f7d15d0d1.png

 

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3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I was still on the 3K so looked and at 12Z Tuesday the 540 Line is well up into PA and much of S/W 2/3rd of the state is over freezing at 500

image.thumb.png.1f4445ee61a6ad4ba60138d1c2a9582d.png

 

Yeah, I had the wrong hour selected.  The HRRR is still below zero all levels 12Z Tues, the 3km is +1, the 12km is +2 column maxes at MDT.  That's still really good in the temp department even if the mix has kicked in by then.  Will be interesting to keep watching the HRRR to see if it delays or speeds up the timing of crossing above zero Tuesday morning.

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8 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

GFS holds the column past 12Z but gives it up sometime in the next 3 hours.  500's again for everyone and 850's for lower part of the LSV.  Using the Pivotal Snow Cover maps shows a nice appreciable dump in the center of the state.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Capture.JPG

Understood the first sentence but not quite sure what you meant in the second with 500's.  Your snow map does not look like the pivotal map I just looked at:

snku_acc.us_ne.png

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6 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Understood the first sentence but not quite sure what you meant in the second with 500's.  Your snow map does not look like the pivotal map I just looked at:

snku_acc.us_ne.png

I posted the final snow fall map vs. the accumulated snow...trying to weed out any sleet   On my second sentence  was saying that everyone loses 500MB and the lower part of the LSV actually go above freezing at 850.  Your snow map is fairly similar to the one I posted...just 1-2" discrepancies except maybe that one 10. accum on yours.

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Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

Well, one thing is very interesting and that is the 3km NAM keeps MDT at or below 0 (surface) until 3Z Wed and by then it shows the precip has ended, implying little to no actual liquid rain falls.

I was thinking you guys were assuming that at this point.  Just some light showers or drizzle.  Maybe not all snow but going to be a crippling blow.

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3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Well, one thing is very interesting and that is the 3km NAM keeps MDT at or below 0 (surface) until 3Z Wed and by then it shows the precip has ended, implying little to no actual liquid rain falls.

Looking at the sounding for MDT the warm layer ends up around 800mb which pushes in around 4-7am Tuesday on this run before 750-850mb layer warms quite a bit by the afternoon.  If surface temps stay at or below freezing until 3z Wednesday that will be sleet Tuesday morning to freezing rain by Tuesday afternoon

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8 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I was thinking you guys were assuming that at this point.  Just some light showers or drizzle.  Maybe not all snow but going to be a crippling blow.

The "impression" you get from NWS point n click is that another quarter to half inch of "liquid" falls in the overnight period.  I think that part is totally bogus and the storm is like you said, some light showers.  I guess I'm just picking apart what it says, which I think gives the impression that a fair amount of liquid rain is going to fall Tuesday evening and overnight.

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4 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

Looking at the sounding for MDT the warm layer ends up around 800mb which pushes in around 4-7am Tuesday on this run before 750-850mb layer warms quite a bit by the afternoon.  If surface temps stay at or below freezing until 3z Wednesday that will be sleet Tuesday morning to freezing rain by Tuesday afternoon

On top of 6" of snow.  That ice pack will take a while to melt even with temps in the 40's at the end of the week.  Thanks for the clarification on the timing of the layers, etc.  Basically it's nearly all snow until close to dawn Tuesday, followed by change to sleet for 6 hours, followed by change to freezing rain for another six hours, ending as drizzle before midnight.

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12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The Susquehanna Valley & Central Mountains typically hold on to the the low level cold for several hours longer than modeled. I think this storm is one of those occasions.

This is where I’m at. Models struggle with thermal temps here in established cold patterns and when the warm air isn’t a blast furnace coming quickly. I buy sleet over zr for instance. 

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Looks like an inch or two here in Carlisle. Back roads are a mess. Ready for round 2... Please no freezing rain. I would love some snow but since I started driving tractor trailers locally in the northeast my love for snow has diminished by alot. Maybe we'll get a CMV interstate ban again. 

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4 minutes ago, rescape said:

Looks like an inch or two here in Carlisle. Back roads are a mess. Ready for round 2... Please no freezing rain. I would love some snow but since I started driving tractor trailers locally in the northeast my love for snow has diminished by alot. 

You should meet Voyager :)

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