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Minnesota_storms

January 24 - 31 Cold Blast

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Just now, Angrysummons said:

HRRR has a cold bias that would make the GFS blush.

It actually does very well around here.

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8 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

ok..........whatever floats your boat.

He is right though, HRRR does fairly well, the cold bias is pretty minimal at this point.

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I really need the clipper on Monday to materialize if we want to maximize the potential of this possible historic cold wave. Yesterday’s heavy rainfall and temps of 39 degrees put a huge dent in our snowpack, in fact a lot of places have 1” or less on the ground. 

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13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

LOT already has -14 at ORD Thursday morning.  A week away.  

WUnderground says -21 Thurs morning at my location

image.thumb.png.bf2e738e80e37c97ceaa3170f46f54c0.png

 

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Models weren't spitting out these kind of crazy numbers back in Jan 2014, were they? I know they were showing big time cold, but I don't recall this insanity. :lol:

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taking an early look at records for MSN, some of the more attainable ones are:

1/30 Record Low Max -1F

1/31 Record Low -22 F  

1/31 Record Low Max -6F

2/1 Record Low Max -1 F

 

If some of the models pan out then record lows of -26F and -28F on the 29th and 1st seem reachable

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Does anybody know where to find maps of snow depth for individual dates?  I am trying to see what the snow depths were like across the region during the other notorious arctic outbreaks.  That would be more convenient than looking up a bunch of cities.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Does anybody know where to find maps of snow depth for individual dates?  I am trying to see what the snow depths were like across the region during the other notorious arctic outbreaks.  That would be more convenient than looking up a bunch of cities.

NWS website. Change the date on the left side.

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58 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Does anybody know where to find maps of snow depth for individual dates?  I am trying to see what the snow depths were like across the region during the other notorious arctic outbreaks.  That would be more convenient than looking up a bunch of cities.

Snow cover during the 2014 outbreak.   

 

BA0E6E02-36DF-4D80-8779-5963FA0C118D.png

F287C696-E57D-4A08-B445-5B3A298E375D.png

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I'm not ready to go all Chicago Storm and predict the coldest temperature on record for Chicago :P, but I really like the odds of them getting into the -20s.  That has only happened 15 times since records began. 

It also appears that there may be a shot at back to back lows of -25 or colder, which has never been observed before.

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24 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm not ready to go all Chicago Storm and predict the coldest temperature on record for Chicago :P, but I really like the odds of them getting into the -20s.  That has only happened 15 times since records began. 

It also appears that there may be a shot at back to back lows of -25 or colder, which has never been observed before.

Gotta go big or go home.

But yea, odds of -20 or colder are getting close to lock status.

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Yeah I think this approaches the record for Detroit too. The only saving grace would be if the Lakes produce clouds into the area and/or the upper low goes north of here, though in that 2nd scenario the winds would be much higher.

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3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Gotta go big or go home.

But yea, odds of -20 or colder are getting close to lock status.

I really want to see one of the major climate sites in northern IL tag -30.  Aurora has done it before but they radiate like crazy.

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9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I really want to see one of the major climate sites in northern IL tag -30.  Aurora has done it before but they radiate like crazy.

My early pick would be RPJ.

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

My early pick would be RPJ.

Meh, imo they don't count lol.  I'm talking Rockford, Moline, Chicago... the big boys.

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Meh, imo they don't count lol.  I'm talking Rockford, Moline, Chicago... the big boys.

Hahaha, all reporting sites considered, RPJ is going to set the bar. -30 or bust. 

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Just now, WHEATCENT said:

In one run of the Euro the -15 for Thursday morning for lake county ohio is now 10 -_- 

Looks to have moderated the extent of the cold in both magnitude and duration fairly significantly. Heck, it almost looks benign!

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