Hoosier Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Forgot about January 1982. That got similar 850 mb temps that far south. Point is we are talking about a very small number of occurrences. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 4 hours ago, beavis1729 said: Taken from the TN sub-forum. The pink area is 48+ degrees below normal. That's freakin' insane. It broke the damn scale lol. If you look closely at the top it says anomaly min at -61.2 degrees! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 7 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: That’s “glacier flattening the land” cold. Perhaps January 1857 style cold, as per David Ludlum's Early American Winters, volume 2? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 OK, we already know it's going to be cold. So here's another 4panel, just in case it helps ;-} 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 The 12z Euro and EPS (498 h5 heights over Lk Superior on the mean!) were obscene and then the 18z GFS came in and tried to one-up the Euro. We'll see what tonight's runs have in store. For reference, here's the upper air climatology page: https://www.weather.gov/unr/uacAttached are top coldest h85 temps at ILX/PIA/RAN and DVN. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Nice! I'm surprised the record low H85 temp at DVN is "only" -27.7C. I would have thought closer to -30 or -32C. That makes the current model output even more impressive. Would like to get this within 5 days...but even so, those incredibly low EPS mean heights are very telling that it's probably the real deal. Yeah, the 18z GFS was wild. 468 dm thickness at INL and H85 temps below -40C. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Nice! I'm surprised the record low H85 temp at DVN is "only" -27.7C. I would have thought closer to -30 or -32C. That makes the current model output even more impressive. Would like to get this within 5 days...but even so, those incredibly low EPS mean heights are very telling that it's probably the real deal. Yeah, the 18z GFS was wild. 468 dm thickness at INL and H85 temps below -40C.Reason for that at DVN is that it's only been a UA site since 1996. Agree that if we get this within 5 days, will start to become a reality and question will be exactly how extreme it is. Will also help to get the heaviest snow axis over northern IL on Monday to help max things out.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Oh my God. That is 468 in central Minnesota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 GFS staying cold CMC now has more cold air coming south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Oh my God. That is 468 in central Minnesota Just a tad nippy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Oh my God. That is 468 in central Minnesota The duration of the well below zero cold is unreal on that run. Almost can't believe seeing that modeled when it's not in fantasy range. Edit: Below zero at the ORD point from 12z Tuesday until 21z Friday. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 At least -40°C at 850 mb by Wednesday of next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 That run gets 850's of at least -39C into northern IL. I don't even have words for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That run gets 850's of at least -39C into northern IL. I don't even have words for that. Can actually see it better on the NCEP site than some others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 105 straight hours below zero in Madison on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 That run gets 850's of at least -39C into northern IL. I don't even have words for that.For reference, coldest 850 on record at INL is -42.1 and -39.5 at GRB, both on 1/16/82. Record low 850 for MPX is -39.3 on 1/9/82 (00z 1/10). Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 In almost 20 years of looking at weather models, I can honestly say that tonight's GFS is one of the craziest things I can remember seeing on a model prog for cold weather. And it's not way out there at 10 days plus. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Legit question: When you’re talking wind chills in the -40s & -50s, at what point is it just unsafe to venture outside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 How the heck is anyone supposed to go anywhere with it being that dangerously cold for that long?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 In almost 20 years of looking at weather models, I can honestly say that tonight's GFS is one of the craziest things I can remember seeing on a model prog for cold weather. And it's not way out there at 10 days plus.Agree. I remember being wowed by medium range projections of early January 2014 cold shot and it wasn't like this. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: How the heck is anyone supposed to go anywhere with it being that dangerously cold for that long?? True. As a guy who usually works at 4am during the weekdays, this would absolutely suck to verify. Even if I’m inside a car, it’ll be brutal to just leave the warmth of my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Parts of Eastern Iowa go below zero for nearly 5 days on the 00z GFS!! That would be pure insanity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Much better radiational cooling setup next Wednesday night/Thursday morning on this run of the Euro. Unbelievably cold min temps modeled in IA and IL. Looks like spots of -40ish in north central IA. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 00z euro - thursday morning... of course, we'll have to score with the clipper to have a chance at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 What is Chicago's coldest temperature ever? Euro has -31 and -33 at day 8.5 for ORD and MDW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, Stebo said: What is Chicago's coldest temperature ever? Euro has -31 and -33 at day 8.5 for ORD and MDW. Record is -27 on 1/20/1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 What is Chicago's coldest temperature ever? Euro has -31 and -33 at day 8.5 for ORD and MDW.Actually bottoms out at -34 at ORD Friday morning, insane.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 On 1/24/2019 at 2:40 AM, RCNYILWX said: Actually bottoms out at -34 at ORD Friday morning, insane. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Yeah incredible! On 1/24/2019 at 2:17 AM, Chicago Storm said: Record is -27 on 1/20/1985. I see, definitely something to watch as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: 00z euro - thursday morning... of course, we'll have to score with the clipper to have a chance at this. Please no -44F. My room's heater can't handle that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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