Snugharbor Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It helps for those of us who remember the 80s and early 90s to know whats going to happen with a storm like this lol. Some people dont believe me but I had literally 1 snow day going to school in Providence from grade 7 to graduating HS (87-93). Sure there was a weekend storm here and there, and it snowed more up in Greenville where we lived, but the pattern was definitely warm and often wet. It all changed once I went to college (it was a pounding for several years in the mid 90s) but when you are a kid you dont tend to misremember not having snow days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I will need you to talk me off the ledge tomorrow. Wife is in Virginia for the weekend and an ice storm with power loss is the last thing I need now. Lol You're a man's man, you can handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snugharbor said: Some people dont believe me but I had literally 1 snow day going to school in Providence from grade 7 to graduating HS (87-93). Sure there was a weekend storm here and there, and it snowed more up in Greenville where we lived, but the pattern was definitely warm and often wet. It all changed once I went to college (it was a pounding for several years in the mid 90s) but when you are a kid you dont tend to misremember not having snow days! Here we had no double digit storms between Feb 1983 and Mar 1993 (the superstorm, which naturally changed to rain after a foot fell here, so really it was like Feb 1983 to Jan 1996 with no double digit pure snowstorms.) We repeated that with no double digit snowstorms after the great 1995-96 winter until the Millenium storm in Dec 2000. But the funny thing was that period felt entirely different because we at least had the great 1993-94 and all time 1995-96 winters under our belts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snugharbor said: Some people dont believe me but I had literally 1 snow day going to school in Providence from grade 7 to graduating HS (87-93). Sure there was a weekend storm here and there, and it snowed more up in Greenville where we lived, but the pattern was definitely warm and often wet. It all changed once I went to college (it was a pounding for several years in the mid 90s) but when you are a kid you dont tend to misremember not having snow days! Long Island was the same way. You couldn’t buy a sizeable snowfall. Meanwhile, 20 miles north of the city it was winter wonderland in perpetuity. So frustrating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Interesting to note the meso models are definitely much colder here in the edge of their range. We've had a lot of conversation about how globals were handling push of warm air against arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 RPM anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 WHDH 4-8 in boston? a little low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro gonna bust on this. I’d bet 6z starts it back colder 6z Euro not backing down. Going to be an interesting battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 17 minutes ago, Snugharbor said: Some people dont believe me but I had literally 1 snow day going to school in Providence from grade 7 to graduating HS (87-93). Sure there was a weekend storm here and there, and it snowed more up in Greenville where we lived, but the pattern was definitely warm and often wet. It all changed once I went to college (it was a pounding for several years in the mid 90s) but when you are a kid you dont tend to misremember not having snow days! The fact that you can remember that is crazy as is that situation is sad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I have gone colder with snow amounts, a further south large area of a foot or more. Downeast ME with the highest amounts of 17-24"+. BOS could see around 12-16", just south of the city could see around 8-12" while Upper Cape Cod region sees 8-12" while the outer Cape sees 6-8" and CHH sees 3-6" and ACK sees 1-3". MVY sees about 10". I am going with the colder scenario. Either way, the Cape and Islands see some sleet and freezing and a few hours of plain rain before the flash freeze and a turn to snow and maybe additional moderate amounts from OES as the NAM shows. I think the SREFs also show the OES impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: WHDH 4-8 in boston? a little low If you believe some of these models, that's a good range. I think it's either 4-8" or 6-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Even the warmer GFS had 1,6 for the MEX numbers for CHH, 1 for SAT and 6 for MON, the guidance that Jerry goes by. those are snowfall numbers, 12z could be even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, sbos_wx said: If you believe some of these models, that's a good range. I think it's either 4-8" or 6-12" I think 6-12" covers it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Saw something really cool driving on I95 in Bridgeport a little while ago. There is a power station on the south side of the highway - left side as driving south - and the steam coming out was doing a spiral as it elevated through the atmosphere. First it was going right to left (NW>SE) it spiraled up and clockwise and probably 100 feet above the top of the stack it was going SE to NW. Really cool to see. Something that might be cool to visualize as we talk up this cold lower layer for this next storm. It's really cool to see visually what we talk about vertically in the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Wow, the 3km NAM is cold. 850s only creep above 0c about 15mi N of the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I have gone colder with snow amounts, a further south large area of a foot or more. Downeast ME with the highest amounts of 17-24"+. BOS could see around 12-16", just south of the city could see around 8-12" while Upper Cape Cod region sees 8-12" while the outer Cape sees 6-8" and CHH sees 3-6" and ACK sees 1-3". MVY sees about 10". I am going with the colder scenario. Either way, the Cape and Islands see some sleet and freezing and a few hours of plain rain before the flash freeze and a turn to snow and maybe additional moderate amounts from OES as the NAM shows. I think the SREFs also show the OES impact. Noone on the cape will see over 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think 6-12" covers it. Gotta always try to put the number you think will verify somewhere in the middle of the range. i.e. 6-12" I'm really thinking somewhere around ~9" 4-8" I'm really thinking somewhere around ~6" 3-6" I'm really thinking 4 or 5 inches Personally I think the BOS number is between 6-9". Perhaps I should be saying 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It's funny, I respect the warm push, but like the tracks closer to NAM type guidance. If that makes any sense. I could see this kissing the islands and near CHH. For some reason I've felt the same. These non-phased SWFE storms seem to favor the NAM thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 BTV WRF seems like the NAM too. Tickles near CHH, but rather chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I have gone colder with snow amounts, a further south large area of a foot or more. Downeast ME with the highest amounts of 17-24"+. BOS could see around 12-16", just south of the city could see around 8-12" while Upper Cape Cod region sees 8-12" while the outer Cape sees 6-8" and CHH sees 3-6" and ACK sees 1-3". MVY sees about 10". I am going with the colder scenario. Either way, the Cape and Islands see some sleet and freezing and a few hours of plain rain before the flash freeze and a turn to snow and maybe additional moderate amounts from OES as the NAM shows. I think the SREFs also show the OES impact. 10" for MVY?????? Good luck with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: WHDH 4-8 in boston? a little low Jeremy always is the more conservative met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Seems to me this whole situation has been providing a unique, coherent testing opportunity for all guidance types - cold low level layer S.A.T. so to speak. I mean, at the end of the day ... y'all want snow or bust. Right. We know... But my own consternation ... well, lack therein actually, I don't really care about ptype. I'm really more concerned with handling the llvs/BL resistance for this evolution/focus. I almost don't care to argue whether 800 mb level or whatever elevates a warm layer. It simply ain't gettin' above 32 F anywhere in this at the surface, not with that degree of in situ polar-arctic high. Which is not only armed quintessentially perfectly nodal in western Quebec, but clearly dammed physically into the climo resistance patterning while flat wave deep layer kinematics attemps to erode... That's not arriving while this is playing out ... it's not leaving either. Take half the pages of posting consternation of this thread, and erase them... useless. It's there, it's perpetually feeding in positive-statically stable layer underneath. Any llv frontal positions, as well, most likely this whole thing, are going to be forced south of that resistance and it is simply not even eligible to enter the conference hall where any debate quorum is taking place. Not qualified - As for ptype, it was always a matter of whether that is snow, or snow mixed with snow that's mixed with snow-IP mix, or snow mixed with snow-IP mix, or snow-IP mix, or IP mixed with some snow... or IP with one or two mangled bow-tie pasta noodles, ... or IP, or IP mixed with ZR ... or ZR with a few pellets mixed in, or ZR... but it ain't just rainin' when all that said resistance is also nascent arctic airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Wow, the 3km NAM is cold. 850s only creep above 0c about 15mi N of the south coast. Did you see what it did with temps aloft? 850mb is brick cold. Pretty insane. Not even close to sleeting. Ice cold at 950mb too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Wow, the 3km NAM is cold. 850s only creep above 0c about 15mi N of the south coast. yeah...it was much more in line with the 12km at 6z...they were quite a bit different last night at 0z, with the 3km being rather toasty. I will say NAM has certainly backed off the prolific fzra totals it was spitting out for CT yesterday. Seems to be a combo of less QPF and an overall colder trend. 6z even kept GON mostly below freezing. Hoping that holds here at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3KM NAM is northeast winds throughout the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4-8” seems reasonable for BOS. Closer to 8” out by Brookline. 5-6” at Logan. Heck, the observer might only measure 1.9” or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: If you believe some of these models, that's a good range. I think it's either 4-8" or 6-12" i'm feeling pretty optimistic about this....i think we could see 10 maybe 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 19 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: WHDH 4-8 in boston? a little low NECN says a foot and sleet storm south to near the Cape, no mention of freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: NECN says a foot I need to see 12z guidance before going all in on a foot plus for BOS just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: Did you see what it did with temps aloft? 850mb is brick cold. Pretty insane. Not even close to sleeting. Ice cold at 950mb too Yeah, it's an insane gradient. There is about a 10-12C difference at 850mb between BOS and GHG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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