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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

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2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

 

I mean that was a pretty irresponsible forecast from TWC. The PWM storm of record is a hair over 30", yet they go with 3' at like 84 hours lead time.  Rip and read.

They say they use some "inhouse blend" of various models with "special" algorithms to come up with their forecasts and its more "accurate" than any weather model (notice all the quotes I used lol).

It's stuff like this that makes me think the NWS shouldn't let corporations like TWC and Accuweather use their products.  It should only be for nonprofit use by individuals and if for profit corporations want to use it they should have to pay a very hefty fee.  Same goes for satellite and radar data.

 

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6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

They say they use some "inhouse blend" of various models with "special" algorithms to come up with their forecasts and its more "accurate" than any weather model (notice all the quotes I used lol).

It's stuff like this that makes me think the NWS shouldn't let corporations like TWC and Accuweather use their products.  It should only be for nonprofit use by individuals and if for profit corporations want to use it they should have to pay a very hefty fee.  Same goes for satellite and radar data.

Their temp forecasts are actually quite accurate, but that snowfall forecast was just so far on the extreme that the only thing it was based off of was QPF and high ratios. 

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 06Z RGEM also appears to have come south again but of course as was pointed out here early tonight it was so far north at 48-54 it pretty much had to come south 

Do you think the storm will clear fast enough to see the total phase of the lunar eclipse (totality begins around 11:41 pm Sunday night and lasts for about an hour).  Latest forecasts on TV were saying the storm will clear out faster than earlier expected and our region should be out of any precip by early afternoon.

 

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Their temp forecasts are actually quite accurate, but that snowfall forecast was just so far on the extreme that the only thing it was based off of was QPF and high ratios. 

I was surprised with the prediction of 36" of snow just south of Manchester, NH and they said there will be a 30 inch difference in snowfall across 30 miles or so (they were forecasting 6 inches in Boston and 36 inches just south of Manchester.)  They even made the ridiculous joke that it could be snowing in someone's back yard while it's raining in their front yard lol.

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16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

They say they use some "inhouse blend" of various models with "special" algorithms to come up with their forecasts and its more "accurate" than any weather model (notice all the quotes I used lol).

It's stuff like this that makes me think the NWS shouldn't let corporations like TWC and Accuweather use their products.  It should only be for nonprofit use by individuals and if for profit corporations want to use it they should have to pay a very hefty fee.  Same goes for satellite and radar data.

 

Lumping TWC with other private forecasters ignores the fact that TWC is a hype machine because they sell advertising.  And, btw, the private corporations do pay a hefty fee; taxes.

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3 minutes ago, Yankees29 said:

Lumping TWC with other private forecasters ignores the fact that TWC is a hype machine because they sell advertising.  And, btw, the private corporations do pay a hefty fee; taxes.

I just meant the big corporation private forecasters like TWC and Accuweather.

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8 minutes ago, Yankees29 said:

Lumping TWC with other private forecasters ignores the fact that TWC is a hype machine because they sell advertising.  And, btw, the private corporations do pay a hefty fee; taxes.

Meh, the average cost per person is $3 a year. I could find worse uses for the money. You can gripe about things government spends tax dollars on, but honestly weather is not one of them.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Icestorm 

Where exactly? 

It just looks sleety with so much low level cold. Even the GFS that loves to be warm in the boundary layer is cold enough for sleet at BDL.

There will be ice, but unless things change significantly I don't see a widespread damaging ice signal.

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Where exactly? 

It just looks sleety with so much low level cold. Even the GFS that loves to be warm in the boundary layer is cold enough for sleet at BDL.

There will be ice, but unless things change significantly I don't see a widespread damaging ice signal.

Who knows where . I just meant a lot of sleet and zr for a whole bunch of people. Sleet is also an icestorm 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who knows where . I just meant a lot of sleet and zr for a whole bunch of people. Sleet is also an icestorm 

:rolleyes: 

Seems you're really stretching your definition of damage now.

I think right now the best chances for higher ice totals will be where Will was talking about yesterday. Near the coast could have the best combo of staying below freezing but near the warmth aloft. Forecast soundings from the NAM near HVN and GON show much more of an ice look, and the NAM is actually decent with low level thermal profiles.

GFS has them flipping to rain...:axe:

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

:rolleyes: 

Seems you're really stretching your definition of damage now.

I think right now the best chances for higher ice totals will be where Will was talking about yesterday. Near the coast could have the best combo of staying below freezing but near the warmth aloft. Forecast soundings from the NAM near HVN and GON show much more of an ice look, and the NAM is actually decent with low level thermal profiles.

GFS has them flipping to rain...:axe:

Gfs jacked up qpf too

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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro / EPS still so warm aloft up to NH. Everything does show a flip back to snow Sunday afternoon/ night

It’s really ridiculous.  I’m inclined to think it’s out to lunch on this event.  As OceanWx said it was off on heights in Canada.  The Euro isn’t ALWAYS great with northern stream features or with disturbances coming out of Canada.  I’ve been nervous about that late northern stream interaction now for 36 hours.  If the NAM continues getting colder today as this event gets inside 36-42 I’m probably tossing the Euro on this.  

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s really ridiculous.  I’m inclined to think it’s out to lunch on this event.  As OceanWx said it was off on heights in Canada.  The Euro isn’t ALWAYS great with northern stream features or with disturbances coming out of Canada.  I’ve been nervous about that late northern stream interaction now for 36 hours.  If the NAM continues getting colder today as this event gets inside 36-42 I’m probably tossing the Euro on this.  

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro was a bust on this. Cold presses always win 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro was a bust on this. Cold presses always win 

Dont try to steal my ice storm bro

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro was a bust on this. Cold presses always win 

Euro will cave at 12z.   The actual surface track did move a tick south but the thermals in the mid level didn’t seem to change much.  Remember euro rarely makes big jumps.  But having the 6Z guidance so far continue cold gives me some confidence that 12z will cement things.

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro will cave at 12z.   The actual surface track did move a tick south but the thermals in the mid level didn’t seem to change much.  Remember euro rarely makes big jumps.  But having the 6Z guidance so far continue cold gives me some confidence that 12z will cement things.

I agree to Jerry, I think confidence is increasing that HYA to CHH will see around 5.5" of snow, most of it possibly on the backside of the storm.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I agree to Jerry, I think confidence is increasing that HYA to CHH will see around 5.5" of snow, most of it possibly on the backside of the storm.

You may actually hit for cycle on ptypes. Start as snow, to mix, to rain. Then flip back to a mix and end as snow as the cold tuck undercuts the warmth aloft.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

You may actually hit for cycle on ptypes. Start as snow, to mix, to rain. Then flip back to a mix and end as snow as the cold tuck undercuts the warmth aloft.

Sweet

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