dendrite Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: They shouldn't even make those maps, lol. 20-40" SWFE sounds about right. Models lost the 80" totals, but are slowly bringing them back. Pretty typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: They shouldn't even make those maps, lol. 20-40" SWFE sounds about right. The qpf its spitting out is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Look out for sneaky warm layers in those soundings. 700mb is pretty warm for areas of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Models lost the 80" totals, but are slowly bringing them back. Pretty typical. You can always adjust up if need be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 More storminess later next week too. The AMWX server is going to be put to test this weekend. Remember everyone there is a facebook page if it goes down. Wonder if this south trend is not finished and C/NNE start getting shafted a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, wxeyeNH said: More storminess later next week too. The AMWX server is going to be put to test this weekend. Remember everyone there is a facebook page if it goes down. Wonder if this south trend is not finished and C/NNE start getting shafted a bit? It only goes down if DC is involved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, wxeyeNH said: More storminess later next week too. The AMWX server is going to be put to test this weekend. Remember everyone there is a facebook page if it goes down. Wonder if this south trend is not finished and C/NNE start getting shafted a bit? May have ticked 20 mi from 0z which is basically noise up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Not a surprise after we saw the OP run, but the EPS mean is south of the 06z run through 72h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: The qpf its spitting out is insane. lol right, the normal snow maps show that fine without jacking up the ratios. I had my time to jack it a couple days ago with 38" on Kuchie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: The AMWX server is going to be put to test this weekend. Remember everyone there is a facebook page if it goes down. Please join up before these things happen. I will approve your membership. https://www.facebook.com/groups/Amwxsne/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The Euro run really is the best of all probabilities... The southern stream is allowed to propagate along uncompressed .. or not attenuating from that particular mitigating factor as much .. . it's almost like the flow just cleaved open temporarily just enough to make room for it. eerie Then, right as it is nearing 80 W the N stream suddenly jabs into the backside and the full bird dose of roids into this sucker is on. Right as it is moving passed LI...too. I tell you what, this could be an underdone surface pressure response ... if that's really all going to take place that way. I cannot help but remain skeptical of that degree of stream interaction accuracy amid high velocity flows ... I think it would be foolish to count on that ... even though I keep getting flogged over the head with that idea by ever third or so model cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 We're not going down. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not a surprise after we saw the OP run, but the EPS mean is south of the 06z run through 72h. There’s a small part of me worried this thing could really flatten and go to crap but I’m more leaning towards it bouncing back north inside 60-72 somewhat. The DCA event did and even the small Friday event has pushed north now the last two model cycles though nobody is really paying attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Hopefully this bumps back north for those who wanted their icestorm. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: We're not going down. Uh huuuuuuuuuuuuuh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: We're not going down. It already did today lol. Took 5 minutes to load every refresh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: The Euro run really is the best of all probabilities... The southern stream is allowed to propagate along uncompressed .. or not attenuating from that particular mitigating factor as much .. . it's almost like the flow just cleaved open temporarily just enough to make room for it. eerie Then, right as it is nearing 80 W the N stream suddenly jabs into the backside and the full bird dose of roids into this sucker is on. Right as it is moving passed LI...too. I tell you what, this could be an underdone surface pressure response ... if that's really all going to take place that way. I cannot help but remain skeptical of that degree of stream interaction accuracy amid high velocity flows ... I think it would be foolish to count on that ... even though I keep getting flogged over the head with that idea by ever third or so model cycle. In your defense...we've already lost the big phasing scenarios where the sfc low cutting into ROC or even ALB (as unrealistc as ALB was...it was trying to put the sfc low there at least in part because o those more phased scenarios)..... I thought the larger phased scenarios were unlikely as well for the reasons you outlined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Please join up before these things happen. I will approve your membership. https://www.facebook.com/groups/Amwxsne/ Thx. Am the guy with baby & the burnt orange profile pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, ajisai said: Thx. Am the guy with baby & the burnt orange profile pic. Hookem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Look out for sneaky warm layers in those soundings. 700mb is pretty warm for areas of SNE You need to let it go... people gonna be buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The op Euro would be a hideous ice storm around NYC/NJ I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not a surprise after we saw the OP run, but the EPS mean is south of the 06z run through 72h. Following the classic trend it seems of showing a solution at Day 7-10, losing it a bit (going north in this case) in the medium range, then honing back in on the original long range outlook in the shorter range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 EPS has low go from near ACY to just outside ACK....similar to OP run in how far north the pellets get...prob near pike...maybe slightly north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: In your defense...we've already lost the big phasing scenarios where the sfc low cutting into ROC or even ALB (as unrealistc as ALB was...it was trying to put the sfc low there at least in part because o those more phased scenarios)..... I thought the larger phased scenarios were unlikely as well for the reasons you outlined. Yeah... but it's doing it here... just a different detailed avenue in how it gets it down.. But clearly at 96 hours the N/stream is crashing the party over Michigan which ... heh, hate to f'n say - that's usual where/when subsuming tends to show up at the party for these... It's like a high velocity 1978 thing... weird - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: The op Euro would be a hideous ice storm around NYC/NJ I think Which rarely if ever occurs. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen but I would lean towards it being more sleet or just going to rain faster. That’s what happens 95 out of 100 times here. A severe ice storm is about a once in 20-30 year event for the NYC metro and Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: The op Euro would be a hideous ice storm around NYC/NJ I think Yeah. 1.8" of ice after 8" of snow. For NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: EPS has low go from near ACY to just outside ACK....similar to OP run in how far north the pellets get...prob near pike...maybe slightly north. Is it south and colder sorry to bother you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Which rarely if ever occurs. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen but I would lean towards it being more sleet or just going to rain faster. That’s what happens 95 out of 100 times here. A severe ice storm is about a once in 20-30 year event for the NYC metro and Long Island I didn't say LI for a reason. But it has that look for parts of NYC (bronx/manhattan) and west into NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: You need to let it go... people gonna be buried You definitely will be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Which rarely if ever occurs. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen but I would lean towards it being more sleet or just going to rain faster. That’s what happens 95 out of 100 times here. A severe ice storm is about a once in 20-30 year event for the NYC metro and Long Island When was the last epic ice storm in NYC? 1994? 25 years....about due for another. Jan 1978 had one too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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