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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

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32 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah that's interesting. So often with ZR we start oozing above 32F and melting stuff before the wind kicks up. 

The wind kinda helps knock the ice off the trees.....like if you took a stick and shook it, the ice fractures and falls off. And then if it's even slightly windy during the storm, ice doesn't accumulate really. 

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1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

 And then if it's even slightly windy during the storm, ice doesn't accumulate really. 

That isn't true at all

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That isn't true at all

I was about to go to bed, but felt obliged to post this pic from 2008 with 20 knot winds.

 

 

028_downsized.jpg

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not gonna make it to the Euro tonight....but we're tossing inland low tracks for those that stay up.

Tossing them right into the forecast package? :devilsmiley:

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In trying to analyze if this arctic boundary is trying to jilt us ... 

if it's backing off in subtle amounts it might account for this warming profile.  

Is this the problem?
 

Using GFS here, but at 850 winds are already either west or south west, and this is at 18Z Sat.  Wouldn't we need a little more of a more northerly component, at least up in northern New England, to prevent the warmup?

I honestly don't have the skill set to understand if what is depicted (it might not even be the right map to illustrate this) is either a cause or an effect as to why the models keep churning out more warmth than expected.  But it seems that arctic high is more strung out west to east in terms of influence on the models, and that's why that low is allowed to barrel farther north than what we would normally expect.

I'll be honest I agree that things "just don't look right" compared to what we would normally see but I couldn't tell you why, lol.

gfs_temp_adv_fgen_850_neus_4.png

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8 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

The wind kinda helps knock the ice off the trees.....like if you took a stick and shook it, the ice fractures and falls off. And then if it's even slightly windy during the storm, ice doesn't accumulate really. 

Wind aids in evaporative cooling. Swaying trees and power lines much more tendency to break. It has the opposite effect 

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1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

That was taken the day after all the ice fell....soooo no.

Lol the entire event had NE winds gusting to 20-25 knots. 

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2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Is this the problem?
 

Using GFS here, but at 850 winds are already either west or south west, and this is at 18Z Sat.  Wouldn't we need a little more of a more northerly component, at least up in northern New England, to prevent the warmup?

I honestly don't have the skill set to understand if what is depicted (it might not even be the right map to illustrate this) either a cause or an effect as to why the models keep churning out more warmth than expected.  But it seems that arctic high is more strung out west to east in terms of influence on the models, and that's why that low is allowed to barrel farther north than what we would normally expect.

I'll be honest I agree that things "just don't look right" compared to what we would normally see but I couldn't tell you why, lol.

You don't need northerly components at 850 to hold the cold. You need easterly components below the tops of the mountains. 

But models can struggle at times with the depth of the cold air. If it's deeper than modeled, sometimes that modeled +5C ends up closer to 1C and it's sleet rather than freezing rain. 

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Is there a model we are not tossing lol

ita clear as daylight it’s wagons north on ML temps and surface appear to be tighter unless things shift back manana . Unless this is a case of meso against global but I don’t see that 

gonna be a tight gradient somewhere between route 2 and MHT it appears w snow totals , unless there are more tickles 

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FWIW, the entire Ohio Valley is verifying about 2-4C cooler at 850 mb than the GFS and NAM. So the entire leading edge of the WAA models are struggling with.

As usual, the 12z Euro is actually performing better than the 00z Americans. :bag:

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All good in my hood.
00z GFS and GEM still both give me 10", then a ton of sleet.
I'm doing final tomorrow at the gtg, but thinking of switching from 8-14" to 8-12".


Have a good time with everyone, I’m sure some of you guys will be there in time for the Euro, I’ll have to try to get down for one of these, But with this storm coming, Wasn’t going to make the 2.5 hr trek.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

You don't need northerly components at 850 to hold the cold. You need easterly components below the tops of the mountains. 

But models can struggle at times with the depth of the cold air. If it's deeper than modeled, sometimes that modeled +5C ends up closer to 1C and it's sleet rather than freezing rain. 

Ahh, that makes sense. Thanks for that explanation. Doesn't look like we're getting that easterly component needed either, at least on the GFS as modeled...

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

FWIW, the entire Ohio Valley is verifying about 2-4C cooler at 850 mb than the GFS and NAM. So the entire leading edge of the WAA models are struggling with.

As usual, the 12z Euro is actually performing better than the 00z Americans. :bag:

Did the Euro correct that height error you references last night?

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:lol: After all those runs being the furthest east model.


Where are the posters from the NYC threads to come tell us how it schooled the Euro?

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17 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Harvey dropped Boston from 6-12" to 2-4" but he has 4-8" pretty close like say where I am or at least to Arlington.

Also an Arlington native here

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3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Ahh, that makes sense. Thanks for that explanation. Doesn't look like we're getting that easterly component needed either, at least on the GFS as modeled...

Plenty of easterly wind at 925 though, which will be blocked by the terrain and help lock in cold.

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I posted this Thursday morning on Memebook.  Looks like a bust out on the Cape.  Ranges are probably 1" too high everywhere else.  Not a fan of these slop storms...

50272797_10100371143772124_2066171146763501568_o.jpg

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UKMET actually skirts the NE coast and emerges at Cape Cod bay. Thats a helluva front end thump in SNE though. Dead body found next to chicken coop, self inflicted, mouth stuffed with chicken pellets.

download (10).png

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