ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, WxBlue said: Yep, this would bust forecasts hard in S NH That map looks too low for S NH. AFN/ASH are all snow through 12z with over an inch of liquid equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: And considering it warms us to plain rain, the amounts are actually higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, WxBlue said: Yep, this would bust forecasts hard in S NH I ran a couple skew-t's for my hood and it showed what might be a flirtation with sleet, but it was only razor thin and only briefly. So much for all the excitement of the NAM runs last night. Hopefully the GFS and EC will hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That map looks too low for S NH. AFN/ASH are all snow through 12z with over an inch of liquid equivalent. I give up Will people just not getting it.. keep fighting though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: There's a funny irony about this in that the low has finally agreed upon to not come on land anywhere yet the ptype transition it's penetrating farther north west every recycle. Stronger 850 winds out of the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: NAM is like 32F here for 8 hours Sunday AM. I'll take the under. I honestly think Kevin's big ice call might be correct even here.. but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That map looks too low for S NH. AFN/ASH are all snow through 12z with over an inch of liquid equivalent. Looking at soundings, that'd be roughly 6 hours of sleet. Still gonna get a foot on that run given the snow-to-liquid ratio, but not sure we'll hit NWS forecast of 18" in this scenario. Probably wouldn't be a major bust then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And considering it warms us to plain rain, the amounts are actually higher. Get those genny's out. I wish I had one lol. I'll be at BDL for this though, working a double shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, CT Rain said: NAM is like 32F here for 8 hours Sunday AM. I'll take the under. Why don't you use the 3k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: How far is SNH away from ZR Far. There could be some microscale flips to freezing rain, but serious threat to accumulate would be well south. It should be more sleet, unless a petty large late shifts in modeling occur in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Everything has trended warmer in the boundary layer. Even the RPM is bringing the surface 0c isotherm to Hartford for a while in the morning Sunday. Not sure if that's overdone but it is notable that everything has come north some this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I honestly think Kevin's big ice call might be correct even here.. but we'll see Sleet bitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Why don't you use the 3k? It's about the same. Looked at that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: I give up Will people just not getting it.. keep fighting though.. I mean, I'm not too worry about that run (and that run isn't even that bad). We'll still get plenty of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Everything has trended warmer in the boundary layer. Even the RPM is bringing the surface 0c isotherm to Hartford for a while in the morning Sunday. Not sure if that's overdone but it is notable that everything has come north some this evening. Last night it was all south so you upped amounts lol if HFD is above 32 I will be 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Looking at soundings, that'd be roughly 6 hours of sleet. Still gonna get a foot on that run given the snow-to-liquid ratio, but not sure we'll hit NWS forecast of 18" in this scenario. Probably wouldn't be a major bust then. Here's probably a more accurate clown map (though prob a little too light near coast). Yeah, 18" is in trouble there I think on most guidance....but I'd expect you'll crack double digits pretty easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I honestly think Kevin's big ice call might be correct even here.. but we'll see I see no way out from about RI / Mass border on SSW line to DXR. I think Ginx, me, anybody up into Union to Putnam down to Ryan to Iceberg to Spanks to Hoth are in deep doo doo. Euro ain’t gonna be wrong this close in. It’s prep time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I see no way out from about RI / Mass border on SSW line to DXR. I think Ginx, me, anybody up into Union to Putnam down to Ryan to Iceberg to Spanks to Hoth are in deep doo doo. Euro ain’t gonna be wrong this close in. It’s prep time Further south in CT, yeah maybe....for you though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Further south in CT, yeah maybe....for you though: What do you make of the warmer tick at 2m on the hires stuff, Will? Sort of surprised to see as much rain as I do now even up to HFD on NAM/RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Further south in CT, yeah maybe....for you though: That sleet line is gonna be up north from Granby to ORH to Bos. That sleet is yours . Ryan knows CT. When he’s worried.. we listen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Here's probably a more accurate clown map (though prob a little too light near coast). Yeah, 18" is in trouble there I think on most guidance....but I'd expect you'll crack double digits pretty easily Those totals ramp up pretty quickly over a few miles in SNE. I'll take my 14" and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Rgem is very warm It rains up to CNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Further south in CT, yeah maybe....for you though: I thought the Euro 850 was like 6 degrees warmer than the NAM and other mesos. Definitely need a EURO bump south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: That sleet line is gonna be up north from Granby to ORH to Bos. That sleet is yours . Ryan knows CT. When he’s worried.. we listen I'm not particularly worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Sleet is going to make this snow quite heavy to move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: I'm not particularly worried. Define particularly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Pretty funny as a spectator watching Kevin fight tooth and nail against anything but sleet - please oh god not that. Ice? Yes. Snow? Yes. Sleet? F u the world sucks. What happens? Next model comes out even more terrifyingly sleety Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Everything has trended warmer in the boundary layer. Even the RPM is bringing the surface 0c isotherm to Hartford for a while in the morning Sunday. Not sure if that's overdone but it is notable that everything has come north some this evening. So the freezing rain can stay north of me? That would be great. Kevin can have it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I see no way out from about RI / Mass border on SSW line to DXR. I think Ginx, me, anybody up into Union to Putnam down to Ryan to Iceberg to Spanks to Hoth are in deep doo doo. Euro ain’t gonna be wrong this close in. It’s prep time Remember the pdfamily temp map? I'm thinking of that from Rocktober any how few pws reports were showing up. Maybe this could be similar, though not as wide geographically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Define particularly Could there be a narrow zone of 1/2" of ice accretion? Sure. But I'm not that confident in it. Southern areas may battle a more easterly component to the wind for a bit and warm about 0c at the surface. Central/Northern areas lose to much QPF to sleet and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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