Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, poolz1 said: The look of the GEFS after day 10 look icy to me. A ton of low level cold... Agreed. Looking less blocky and more progressive. Some loose comparisons to JF 2014 and 1994 imho. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Don't be fooled by that SE ridge that develops on the LR GEFS... 2m temps still cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, wawarriors4 said: That would be fantastic Makes sense. BTW, have already had an OK winter in N. MD. Two snows of 4" or a tiny bit more, a one inch, some sleet and now below zero WCs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 The only thing I am taking away from the 12Z GFS is that we are going to have legit chances to track through the end of the month at least. The long range isnt that ugly either. This is workable. -AO, -NAO, big Southern stream storm and an Aleutian low. I will take my chances with this look in the long range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We have 6 weeks before the calendar starts doing the dirtywork. Right now i only care about the rest of Jan. Getting totally blanked seems unlikely to me. Absolutely correct. Very good chance everyone in the entire forum sees snow cover the ground at least twice by superbowl weekend. Plenty winter left. I want the epic stretch as much as anyone but I'm quite pleased with the way things are progressing. I could care less about how the pac looks 14 days from now. In 2016 the ensembles crapped the bed on jan. 9th after looking solid for several days before. Then 14 days later we had a hecs. Like I've said a few time already, this year is nothing like the previous two winters. Everyone will probably exceed clime when it's all said and done. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Reading through the last few pages of this thread, you'd think the models showed rainstorm after rainstorm. I just looked at the GFS myself and was pleasantly surprised to see plenty of snow opportunities. Hard to imagine that we won't get a winter storm in the the next couple weeks. I guess it's mainly that Pennsylvania guy that's giving this forum a negative vibe. Let's just ignore him...I'm sure he lives a sad sad life and is looking for attention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Personally I dont want it to be cold in Miami I just want it cold enough here with moisture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We could go back to removing lots of crap posts that upsets people just as much. Or you could do something about those handful of crap posters. 5-post them, or block them from this subforum. That should make these threads a lot more readable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Too many people are always hunting for KU/HECS patterns. And yes we’ve been teased with some this winter on the weeklies and D10+ ensembles, but they are super rare for a reason. Most of our snow storms occur in patterns where a couple or few of the good indicators looks good and the rest are meh to bad. For our snow chances, the AO is easily the most important indicator. It looks negative for the foreseeable future during our prime climo. It’s mid January, I’m tired of talking pattern. Let’s just watch storm threats develop. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 A lot of mixed events on the gefs in early Feb. Before that it looks like much above normal chances for snow. I'll go down with the ship if necessary but I have a strong inuitive feeling that we'll get more snow this month before anything bad happens with the Pac pattern. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 FV-3 gives some backend snow this Thursday and just misses the region with a big storm. Very juicy and the pressures are below 1000. I think we may be heading for a snowy period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 LOL. The FV3 is a weenine run. I counted at least 6 chances to track through the end of the run. Fun times ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Euro at 144 looks potentially very tasty, sorta like the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: LOL. The FV3 is a weenine run. I counted at least 6 chances to track through the end of the run. Fun times ahead. Day 7.5 is the one I like the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Euro gulf low d7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Ji said: Euro gulf low d7 1000mb south of Alabama, impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 It won't be a crawling miller a with this setup but i've seen far worse snow on us in Jan. Gefs shows multiple versions of a coastal in the same timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 It won't be a crawling miller a with this setup but i've seen far worse snow on us in Jan. Gefs shows multiple versions of a coastal in the same timeframe. It will prob fizzle out as it sees dc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Euro is a hit, nice clean snowstorm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Meh....1000 gulf low with no precip in the southeast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It won't be a crawling miller a with this setup but i've seen far worse snow on us in Jan. Gefs shows multiple versions of a coastal in the same timeframe. It will prob fizzle out as it sees dc It will be a few days before any type of consesus builds. Here's the gefs spread. Looks good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Euro is a nice hit but razor thin path to succes in how it got there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 This looked really unusual but it ended up being a good storm ha. Never seen a gulf low with a precip hole like that haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 981 of Carolina coast. I'll take that a call it a winter till February 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 This is one of those setups where we can snow and SNE gets rain if the track tucks close enough. It's rare but sometimes our latitude helps us with amplified coastals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 This is one of those setups where we can snow and SNE gets rain if the track tucks close enough. It's rare but sometimes our latitude helps us with amplified coastals.Psu 1966 blizzard which occurred on same date 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Kuchera. I'd hit 20"+ ytd before Feb. Very tricky setup. We'll get the kitchen sink thrown at us next couple days me thinks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Kuchera. I'd hit 20"+ ytd before Feb. Very tricky setup. We'll get the kitchen sink thrown at us next couple days me thinks Driest 981 Miller a in history lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 500mb looks really nice. The fast flow could end up hurting us though. I’ve been tracking this time frame for a few days now and the one negative we could potentially run into is kicker problems....This looks like a Miller A/B hybrid to me, but idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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