40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: I think the moral of the story is everyone still has a lot to learn wrt seasonal forecasting. Just when we think we have something figured out we get thrown a curveball...*cough judah*... If this ends up a lousy winter after a confident call of epicness, there’s nothing else to call it other than a major bust...whether you think the methodology is right or not. With that said, everyone learns from the busts and keeps pushing the science and the forecasts foreward. You can’t get discouraged either because we all bust. Some are good at spinning them with excuses, but for sure we’ve all had some big fails. With all of that said, it’s still January so let’s not mail it in like the 2012 Sox quite yet. Yes, a bust is a bust. I wasn't trying to contest that. The best methodology possible will still lead us astray from time to time in this frontier science. I will read back through some of the milder outlooks and look for what I missed should that come to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: I think the moral of the story is everyone still has a lot to learn wrt seasonal forecasting. Just when we think we have something figured out we get thrown a curveball...*cough judah*... If this ends up a lousy winter after a confident call of epicness, there’s nothing else to call it other than a major bust...whether you think the methodology is right or not. With that said, everyone learns from the busts and keeps pushing the science and the forecasts foreward. You can’t get discouraged either because we all bust. Some are good at spinning them with excuses, but for sure we’ve all had some big fails. With all of that said, it’s still January so let’s not mail it in like the 2012 Sox quite yet. Speaking of the Sox, pitchers and catchers report in a little over 2 weeks- the clearest sign that winter is ebbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: If one traveled back in the archives, well before any official outlooks came out, didn’t 40/70 call winter 18/19 to rat and 19/20 to rock? I just remember telling some friends back when I read that, almost a year ago, to not expect anything special this winter in SNE. I did...but that was when I thought that the solar min would occur next season. That was early speculation. One thing I may have to reexamine is my stance in solar min winters for this area...raindance may have something there. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, a bust is a bust. I wasn't trying to contest that. The best methodology possible will still lead us astray from time to time in this frontier science. I will read back through some of the milder outlooks and look for what I missed should that come to pass. I think Jerry hit it on the head with sample size. There’s so many synoptic and global scale forcing mechanisms that work on the pattern that our relatively small sample size of datasets doesn’t necessarily give you a representative range of possible outcomes when factoring in some luck. Obviously you know all this and bust or not, you’ll be back next year fine. You have to have a “we’re onto Cincinnati” attitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Yea, Jerry is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 48 minutes ago, tavwtby said: cool wet spring Absolutely not . You want to see a melt ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 March 2012 was one of the best ever. Not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: March 2012 was one of the best ever. Not gonna happen. Ski season ended for for March 18 for me...plus I cracked a rib or two on that last day. it was neat seeing my son practice baseball on a dry field at the end of March...I doubt I see a month like that again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: March 2012 was one of the best ever. Not gonna happen. 12, 10, 98...we won’t be picky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: 12, 10, 98...we won’t be picky 10 was a deluge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 10 was a deluge Comfy spring overall. Not much of a mudseason up here. I was crushing BTV in the forecasting contest by going wayyy above guidance. No snow cover meant to bump up the mixing heights like it was late Aprl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I think March in 98 was 90+ late month,,,,maybe 89 but spectacularly warm for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think that may end up muted...we will see. I think it will. Dec-Jan haven't exactly been blowtorch months and I expect Feb to be subdued in the temp department too. At the very least I don't expect expect another torch like the last two years especially in a Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I didn't see any torches for the next 16 days on the 0z GFS. That is, unless we have redefined the word "torch". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 hours ago, weathafella said: I think March in 98 was 90+ late month,,,,maybe 89 but spectacularly warm for March. A few days of 80s and then the 31st flirted with 90. Then a hellacious backdoor moved through. Tippy remembers that one well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, a bust is a bust. I wasn't trying to contest that. The best methodology possible will still lead us astray from time to time in this frontier science. I will read back through some of the milder outlooks and look for what I missed should that come to pass. enso is just one of a myriad factors, not your fault, I think everyone was banking on a 1:1 correlation that hasn't panned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Cold no joke again Thursday morning-17F at 925 -18F at 850 wind chills -30 5 dog night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Yeah...the cold Thursday morning will be nasty. Still considering postponing ski club...again, which will suck. Last week, 2” of rain and 55F...this week, 5F and wind...ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Cold no joke again Thursday morning-17F at 925 -18F at 850 wind chills -30 5 dog night That has also been a frustrating element to this season, even for the winter enthusiasts in NNE. Much of there snow has had ungodly cold and wind intruding on the heals of these storms.(of course I would take this, but I’m deflecting now) Even for the heartiest of New Englanders it’s been pretty brutal. I wonder if the resorts are BN in regards to revenue due to the extreme cold. IMO that does take some of the shine off there AN snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Glad this will be greatly modified for us. MEX with -14/-25 for ORD Thursday. Shattered records if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Glad this will be greatly modified for us. MEX with -14/-25 for ORD Thursday. Shattered records if that verifies. But still not Feb 1996 -60 Tower, MN levels. What an amazing winter that was, the historic cold that came in February doesn't get much attention. I think that -60 might have been the lowest temp ever recorded east of the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: But still not Feb 1996 -60 Tower, MN levels. What an amazing winter that was, the historic cold that came in February doesn't get much attention. I think that -60 might have been the lowest temp ever recorded east of the Rockies. Probably too much of a pressure gradient for those northern arrowhead sites (Tower/Embarrass), but this one may have more oomph for places further south than 96 did. The associated sfc high settles over the Dakotas on Wed morning so maybe they have a better chance to decouple and get into the -40s. MEX is hitting MSP with a -18/-30 which is right up there with the -17/-32 of 1996. The wind chills will be ridonkulous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Probably too much of a pressure gradient for those northern arrowhead sites (Tower/Embarrass), but this one may have more oomph for places further south than 96 did. The associated sfc high settles over the Dakotas on Wed morning so maybe they have a better chance to decouple and get into the -40s. MEX is hitting MSP with a -18/-30 which is right up there with the -17/-32 of 1996. The wind chills will be ridonkulous. I heard they dont shut down their schools unless temps are -25 or colder with wind chills of -35 or colder- kids will start complaining when their cell phones stop working lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I heard they dont shut down their schools unless temps are -25 or colder with wind chills of -35 or colder- kids will start complaining when their cell phones stop working lol. That actually happened to me, here ...in SNE ... My proclivity for forgetfulness with weather events and their dates has me at a loss as to what winter it was... but it was a recent one. I left my iPhone on the front passenger seat of my car while at the gym. One hour work out, came out ... phone was unresponsive. I hadn't ever considered any limitations related to temperature and that particular technology, but I know first hand that there is some form of temperature band-width. I wonder if there is an upper bound for that matter. Interesting.. What I do recall was the temperature being -6 F on the dash-indicator. An hour later ... while sitting in a warm cozy office chair, sipping a Gatorade and deflating over mindless web pap on my PC ... the interface of the phone starts glowing ...then, pops back to life with, the standard fare of icons working again. If my iPhone got punch drunk at -6 ... they're gonna be in a comms black out up there, one might wonder. It's an example of how technology is effecting sociologically ... For a myriad of other reasons aside, civility becoming increasingly reliant upon the Internet, and/or the general WAN of a wired society ... that mere daily functioning becomes (as an aside, 'dangerously') dependent upon it - so much so that one could conceive a scenario where a 'state of emergency' has to be issue, because that dependency becomes inaccessible too acutely and quickly to adjust ... rendering a break-down in public safety on multiple levels. It's funny ...putting it into perspective... For all conceits of man and how their ingenuity creates marvels ... a cold day cripples. This and these regional inconveniences ... they can serve as a nice microcosmic example of fragility, exposing how vulnerability is just there ... beyond the faux walls of technological conveniences that keep us preoccupied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 My cell phone and car key fob die pretty often when skiing. The batteries go lifeless until they warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 I still wonder (if not suspect) that the Euro operational is over-done with the warm up in the late middle range. I mentioned that yesterday ... the model has a subtle meridian bias in the D6+ time ranges, one particularly notable when ever there is a reason to plunk a negative geopoential anomaly over the Great Basin. Many know of this ... the "SW bias low heights of the Euro" that used to be demonstrative back in the day ... is more like vestigial now. There's been corrections and improvements over all in that model ... but some how some way through it all there is an echo of its ancestry still in the panache of its trend-handling and pattern modulations and so forth. Just a whisper... Case in point, the 12z yesterday demoed a fantastically warm hemispheric burst over eastern North American mid latitudes for D6-10 as we all know. The 00z? Still has it... but the particulars have it less as extremely so. Meanwhile ... the high trustworthy other model types (eh hm) ... don't agree anyway. The GGEM? That's a prelude to an ice storm ... almost 1998 style... with a positive trough tilted across the U.S.... an arm of high pressure draped across S-SE Canada, and waves of overrunning being ejected and strung out along the boundary. The paralegal model, Fv3' of the GFS' soon to be replacement (in theory) flat out models extended icing scenarios on both it's 00z and 06z runs. Ice storms are fantastically difficult to assess ...let alone even predict occurrences beyond two days. In fact, I'd almost argue you could predict a tornado outbreak with more certitude. But, the macro-synopsis of the period D7 to 11 (say) would seem to suggest an enhanced possibility for that type of weather phenomenon. The AO is negative... while the PNA flat lines (if perhaps the latter being modulated (A LITTLE) by the MJO's recent charge through Phase 4-6)... The success of that sort of concurrent index mode offers the positive tilted trough with overrunning ... almost as the preferred pattern tendency (intuitively) so, ... While I do think that TX-FL and adjacent SW Atl. Basin heights may end up positive D6 thru 12... I wouldn't be shocked if there is exertion (more so than the oper. Euro is seeing) from the N, along the 40th parallel... and the form that comes in, when talking early February... that's anyone's guess - but at the end of the day I bet against the Euro's early May look from 12z yesterday, and it's 00z, albeit subtle backing off that general complexion, is probably indicative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 When I lived out in the Intermountain west, doing field in sept, oct, nov, we would take the batteries out of all the electronics and split them up among the crew so that we all some to sleep with in our sleeping bags. At the end of the season when it was chilly during the day as well, we would carry the extra batteries on us to keep them warm. Cold sucks the life out of everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: I heard they dont shut down their schools unless temps are -25 or colder with wind chills of -35 or colder- kids will start complaining when their cell phones stop working lol. Widespread -40s in northern MN this morning. The AWOSs can’t even report that cold. INL -45°. No thanks. edit....saw a -48F at Ash Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I’ve also experienced the cell phone phenomenon. Go out to walk the dog on a very cold night and the battery drains quickly. This cold should be the temperature nadir of winter. We’re actually heading into a decent pattern long term but the obscene EPO seems over for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 48 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Call me crazy, but the CFS and EURO weeklies look good. I know they keep getting pushed back BUT the MJO looks good on 90% of guidance. Also, both CFS and EURO weeklies predicted this torch week coming up with a dip of the pna. Then the pattern gets better. Also, Isotherm and too a lesser extent Don are still confident on a better pattern. Now, it may not last long, but like you said 1 or 2 moderate to heavy events are still POSSIBILITIES before spring. Neck, we may even luck out with a hail Mary blizzard to get our area to climo. All in all too early to completely give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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