correnjim1 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 maybe i'll crack 1 inch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Graupler Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Big jump today on euro in a good way imho I think if you scroll back a bit this was exactly what I was calling for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 It’s more of the two pieces remain more separated vs any PV flattening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Its a bit slower this run and slightly weaker with the lead s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, The Graupler said: I think if you scroll back a bit this was exactly what I was calling for. What’s on tap this week at widow maker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 You can see that pv @ 850 pushing down into Maine from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 It’s still ugly for SNE. We need a lot more help, but better front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Def less amped than 00z...still gonna taint into CNE...but that's a good shift. The sfc will prob stay SE on this run (or would in reality), so it will be lots of ice too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 18 minutes ago, Greg said: Honestly, this thing is looking like a Low Pressure Center coastal scrapper with the track unless the upper levels change a bit. Always love a good scrapper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 better but still torches metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Good run for the ski areas, no taint concern like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s still ugly for SNE. We need a lot more help, but better front end. When u say ugly, you should clairfy not Just snow against everything else but frozen against liquid pappy we have had 10 rainstorms , in this context sleet is not so ugly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Greens, Whites, Mahoosuc's grappling mauler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: When u say ugly, you should clairfy not Just snow against everything else but frozen against liquid pappy No liquid for you...you'd get hammered with ZR after front end snow/sleet. Basically keeps everyone outside of 495and N of pike below freezing...in reality it would probably stay below freezing for areas even further south and east like to 128 and N CT or something....these models won't do the CAD correctly....though Euro is better at it than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: No liquid for you...you'd get hammered with ZR after front end snow/sleet. Basically keeps everyone outside of 495and N of pike below freezing...in reality it would probably stay below freezing for areas even further south and east like to 128 and N CT or something....these models won't do the CAD correctly....though Euro is better at it than GFS. Thank you Sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Huge step in right direction. Those calls earlier of 50’s and rains based on overamped Eps were silly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Graupler Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What’s on tap this week at widow maker? We brought back the 50 year storm and Com RAD Russian imperial stout. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The high pressure dropping into the Dakotas continues to trend weaker. Last 4 ECMWF runs for SFC HP strength at 06z Sunday: 14.00z = 1050 mb 14.12z = 1047 mb 15.00z = 1045 mb 15.12z = 1042 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: No liquid for you...you'd get hammered with ZR after front end snow/sleet. Basically keeps everyone outside of 495and N of pike below freezing...in reality it would probably stay below freezing for areas even further south and east like to 128 and N CT or something....these models won't do the CAD correctly....though Euro is better at it than GFS. on that track, I worry about ZR in my area with CAD.. Brutal cold on the EURO for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: The high pressure dropping into the Dakotas continues to trend weaker. Last 4 ECMWF runs for SFC HP strength at 06z Sunday: 14.00z = 1050 mb 14.12z = 1047 mb 15.00z = 1045 mb 15.12z = 1042 mb please elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: When u say ugly, you should clairfy not Just snow against everything else but frozen against liquid pappy we have had 10 rainstorms , in this context sleet is not so ugly Well for snow yes ugly. I’m sure typical spots interior will have a lot of ZR. West and north 495 etc. I don’t have a ZR fetish so maybe I’m biased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 There's too much focus on "PV" ... It's the flow compression from basically Cuba to James Bay and all points in between that is the problem... Yeah, I get it - the two in this case are probably connected, still.. the understanding needs to focus on fast versus relaxed flow restoring. Those two play out differently. The fast version imposes intrinsic limitation in the ability for a fluid medium to structure cohesive "curved' forms of amplitude... That's why these features are "open wave" structures ...probability wise... a repeating motif for the next two weeks of this new pattern if the gradient between James Bay and the Gulf doesn't enter an idealized 80 dm ... or whatever, but less than 120 f'um five 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Well for snow yes ugly. I’m sure typical spots interior will have a lot of ZR. West and north 495 etc. I don’t have a ZR fetish so maybe I’m biased. ZR is the ultimate pack preserver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Surface temps don't even make it to 23°F for the storm duration up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: ZR is the ultimate pack preserver. That would be a glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Let's split the difference between the Euro and Ukie, the two best globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s more of the two pieces remain more separated vs any PV flattening. Yea, never liked the phased monster, either...we aren't blocky yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 That's true Will... I remember 1/2" glaze over a 6" snow in 1990 I think it was... and noticed that it was more resilient to 40 F afternoon a week later. Funny ...but I specifically recall noting this when I was kid - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Not sure what other's are seeing, but from what I am ... any differences between the 00z and 12z are beneath the threshold of making a sensible variation ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: please elaborate? Just a trend I have been noticing, but where I think I am going with this is that as the system traverses the country, we need to prevent it from gaining as little latitude as possible. Back when the HP was modeled in the 1050s, the storm center was exiting the east coast down near the DelMarVa. As the HP has trended weaker, the storm center is able to gain latitude and traverse through SNE. While its likely a cause and Tip can add much more confusing language to explain what I'm thinking, its just something to keep an eye on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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