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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ha yea. I’m attempting to stay positive even though subconsciously I’ve started the melting process...it just hasn’t translated to my fingers yet. 

 I have to say Mr. iceberg, you have slowly but surely subtly yet relentlessly become one of the top five funniest people on this board. Zeus is still number one,  and his standard is above most mortal human beings,  but you’re definitely top five.  Your ultimate melt will be very fun!

top 5:

Zeus

Brian

Ruanaway

Scott?  (It’s dry and subtle)

who am I missing?  Forky when he’s not being a biatch 

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

 I have to say Mr. iceberg, you have slowly but surely subtly yet relentlessly become one of the top five funniest people on this board. Zeus is still number one,  and his standard is above the most more like human beings,  but you’re definitely top five.  Your ultimate melt will be very fun!

top 5:

Zeus

Brian

Ruanaway

Scott?  (It’s dry and subtle)

who am I missing?  Forky when he’s not being a biatch 

Hi

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3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

 I have to say Mr. iceberg, you have slowly but surely subtly yet relentlessly become one of the top five funniest people on this board. Zeus is still number one,  and his standard is above the most more like human beings,  but you’re definitely top five.  Your ultimate melt will be very fun!

top 5:

Zeus

Brian

Ruanaway

Scott?  (It’s dry and subtle)

who am I missing?  Forky when he’s not being a biatch 

Dendrite

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Lived through the 80's in Amherst, NYC, and Pittsfield. Some crappy times indeed, but I remember a couple of really great early March snowfall in NYC and November storms in Pittsfield (even great October storm of 1987, year my daughter was born).  Wasn't in Worcester for much, but it just seemed kind of dull. Amherst really suffered from the Valley effect, but one spell 81-82; had a winter with snow on the ground from early December until the beginning of April. Year of the great cold April blizzard 1982

So don't despair. And Feb 2015 was only 3 years ago. Last March was  a pretty good punch of winter, too.

Really boys and girls, etc. Let's get a grip

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We've definitely seen changes...the cold loading has been much more eastward and deeper into North America....ORH just had their coldest high temperature in 25 years and we did just have our biggest winter storm, since 11/15. Those are some sensible wx results that are a 180 from most of December and early January.

 

We're still not getting a sustained PNA ridging....we get it in little pockets. As a result, the heights in the southeast should be lower in a typical El Nino and we keep getting the tendency of them to rebound too much there. That is causing some issues for storm track. We will see if we get some more NAO assistance coming up...so far it has mostly been absent, but that doesn't mean it will continue to be the case (see March 2018).

 

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3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Everyone is whining all over the other forums and social media because forecasters had this winter being a cold and snowy winter for the whole northeast .

NOAA's seasonal forecasts in October and November predicted above normal temperatures for this Winter.  People hear what they want to hear.  I still think Ray's forecast was great despite not getting snow.  Most of what he's mentioned actually has occurred, and it was very educational regardless of the outcome.  Sometimes $h!t happens (or doesn't).

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5 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

NOAA's seasonal forecasts in October and November predicted above normal temperatures for this Winter.  People hear what they want to hear.  I still think Ray's forecast was great despite not getting snow.  Most of what he's mentioned actually has occurred, and it was very educational regardless of the outcome.  Sometimes $h!t happens (or doesn't).

I'm usually pretty objective with grading...never had any complaints, although that may be a function of no one caring.

If I nail the pattern, but miss badly on snowfall, then I will probably give it a like a C+. Its hard to argue that I missed the PNA potential when one of my most prominent analogs was 1969.

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

1/1-10 had 9 above normal days and one below.  1/11-20 had 6 below normal days and 4 above.  1/21-30 will kick right off with 2 way below normal days.  That to me is a pretty significant change even if it hasn’t snowed in Plymouth.

And if you read my posts you would know that i wasnt talking plymouth centric. Nothing has really changed with the storm track. Which is why i was asking if someone could tell me what changed. 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It usually comes with talk of it feeling warm on his nape , and the inside of cars warming up without him turning the heat on

And light fall rates melting on wind shields due to increasing solar irradiance, despite cloudy skies and subfreezing temps.

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1 minute ago, #NoPoles said:

And if you read my posts you would know that i wasnt talking plymouth centric. Nothing has really changed with the storm track. Which is why i was asking if someone could tell me what changed. 

It did, though. Most went from getting zero snowfall, to several inches. There is a difference between a cutter, and a track over the south coast with arctic air approaching.

 

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2 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

And if you read my posts you would know that i wasnt talking plymouth centric. Nothing has really changed with the storm track. Which is why i was asking if someone could tell me what changed. 

Right. And my post you quoted was an example of the change.  Will’s is a better example.

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17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tip always does on Feb 10

Right ...right because that is physically the end of the perennial solar nadir  ... which begins November 10 and ends on that Feb date... 

every year... 

A 6th grade complexity Earth -sun relationship facet that for some reason (gee I wonder why) doesn't seem to penetrate some individuals in this short-bus forum

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