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Rjay

January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

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4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Euro is a biblical ice storm for nyc and LI

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

do you have maps or soundings?

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Just now, TriPol said:

How close is this to an all snow event from NYC-BOS?

It's not happening, period. The WAA will simply not allow it. This has always been a snow to rain vs snow to ice, depending on surface temps.

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How close is this to an all snow event from NYC-BOS?
Much closer than people think.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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I'm not sure we've ever seen heavy rain with temps in the lower to mid 20's. I certainly cannot recall it previously. 

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Just now, WarrenCtyWx said:

The snowfall depicted for much of the area seems excessive given the warming aloft, no?

Not really, because all of that is front end. It could come down 1-2" per hour before the changeover. 

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3 minutes ago, David-LI said:

do you have maps or soundings?

The Euro is back to the big ice storm for the NYC Metro that it was showing last weekend. 

FC60143F-63DA-4F54-A82E-AB3012BC165F.thumb.png.be09637b2f05ddd891deab289ca8ac19.png

 

 

 

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Just now, bluewave said:

The Euro is back to the big ice storm for the NYC Metro that it was showing last weekend. 

FC60143F-63DA-4F54-A82E-AB3012BC165F.thumb.png.be09637b2f05ddd891deab289ca8ac19.png

 

 

 

Wow that's insane

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's not happening, period. The WAA will simply not allow it. This has always been a snow to rain vs snow to ice, depending on surface temps.

How can you say so definitively when reliable models are showing all or at least mostly snow just north of the coast?  Everything from big snowstorm to big rainstorm is still on the table at this juncture.

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is back to the big ice storm for the NYC Metro that it was showing last weekend. 

FC60143F-63DA-4F54-A82E-AB3012BC165F.thumb.png.be09637b2f05ddd891deab289ca8ac19.png

 

 

 

This map shows you exactly where the 850 line gets to. Anywhere N and W of this line basically stays snow. 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is back to the big ice storm for the NYC Metro that it was showing last weekend. 

FC60143F-63DA-4F54-A82E-AB3012BC165F.thumb.png.be09637b2f05ddd891deab289ca8ac19.png

 

 

 

I know I said that the Southern cutoff for the big ice was I-80, however it looks like 78 might be more accurate. Of course some of that could be overdone. 

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If the city gets an inch of ice everyone will lose power. Half an inch is already enough to bring down trees and power lines, I can't imagine what 1.5" does.

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is back to the big ice storm for the NYC Metro that it was showing last weekend. 

FC60143F-63DA-4F54-A82E-AB3012BC165F.thumb.png.be09637b2f05ddd891deab289ca8ac19.png

 

 

 

It’s showing close to a record ice storm north and west of the city

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1 minute ago, David-LI said:

If the city gets an inch of ice everyone will lose power. Half an inch is already enough to bring down trees and power lines, I can't imagine what 1.5" does.

We did not lose power in the 94 storm, the only thing comparable to what is possible here. But it's a good idea to get the generators in working order. And hope for sleet instead.

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3 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

How can you say so definitively when reliable models are showing all or at least mostly snow just north of the coast?  Everything from big snowstorm to big rainstorm is still on the table at this juncture.

He’s right. If it happens the way the Euro just showed it is definitely not staying snow. There will be massive midlevel warming in such a setup

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1 minute ago, David-LI said:

If the city gets an inch of ice everyone will lose power. Half an inch is already enough to bring down trees and power lines, I can't imagine what 1.5" does.

That’s not true, most of the city electric supplied by underground. However overhead areas would be in trouble. Staten Island, some parts of Brooklyn and queens

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At this point a south trend would likely just make the icing situation worse instead of giving the city significantly more snow. Every model torches the 850s up into the LHV and it would be tough to avoid that warm punch long enough for the city to remain mostly snow. Only thing I can think of would be an earlier transfer to the coastal, which would interrupt the warm punch and start bringing cooler air south.

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

It’s showing close to a record ice storm north and west of the city

Yeah, this would be a huge win for the Euro if it verifies. Remember how it showed this solution last weekend. Probably need to get to writhin 24-48 hrs to know where the most dangerous icing sets up.

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s showing close to a record ice storm north and west of the city

That looks like the it includes the city as well. Let us hope this is not the end result. For all our sakes.

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Much prefer snow to ice obviously.  What eventually happens will be interesting given the epic battleground between warm and cold here.  We are right in the middle of it.  Still many more model solutions to go before the event, so hold caution drawing any conclusions yet, even with some model agreement.  Should be even a wilder few days coming up. 

 

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21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

No, the primary ice zone is from I-84 on the North end to about route 80 on the South side.

I'm about 20 miles north of 84 and Im just hoping the freezing rain stays south of me. Hate the ice. I'll take the snow and little bit of sleet. 

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20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's not happening, period. The WAA will simply not allow it. This has always been a snow to rain vs snow to ice, depending on surface temps.

It's very close

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6 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said:

That’s not true, most of the city electric supplied by underground. However overhead areas would be in trouble. Staten Island, some parts of Brooklyn and queens

That's a big part of the city if you're not mentioning Manhattan only. Also Long Island would be in trouble with that forecast.

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It's very close

No it's not. That might look close, but you're running +5 to +10C at 850mb and it's even warmer at other levels.

ecmwf_T850_neus_5.png

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