Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6z euro takes most of us out of the dreaded green into the magic blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Nice weenie band signal near and south of DC. Enjoy it. At least it’s january and wont melt hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6z Euro looks good. QPF bump HRRR /SREF are juicy as well ICON GFS Euro all agree on approaching warning snowfall, if not exceeding it. Alright, time for a 12z NAM’ing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 6z euro takes most of us out of the dreaded green into the magic blue I’m closer to tan now. That 0.8 is sitting on top of my house. Holy QPF Batman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, jayyy said: 6z Euro looks good. QPF bump HRRR /SREF are juicy as well ICON GFS Euro all agree on approaching warning snowfall, if not exceeding it. Alright, time for a 12z NAM’ing! NAM can’t be better than 6z was. That was porn in HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 LOL oh yeah big time NAM'ING incoming 500MB is the best its looked Yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 We have finally trended in the right direction over the last 24 hours with this one!!! One of the few that have. Such a relief to see!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I spy the NAM strengthening the 850mb jet Closed 145DM 850 low this run too. Everything is only getting better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Any reports of precip from central VA yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nice weenie band signal near and south of DC. Enjoy it. At least it’s january and wont melt hours later. Thanks coastal but i think you meant to say melts on contact. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 lol the NAM radar is juiced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 NAM really starts cranking tomorrow. 1 inch per hour rates in DC proper at 16z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Man this run is gonna be a beatdown lol Low is actually inland over NC headed towards EVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, peribonca said: Any reports of precip from central VA yet? Flurries in Chester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Cannot show the graphic because it's in house only, but WPC Super Ensemble has around 6" mean for snow at DCA for the event, which is right in line with a lot of numerical model guidance. When you remove the 3 highest and lowest outliers, it's right at 6" still, so the prospects for warning level snowfall is above average for the DC metro. IAD is running a mean of around 6.3" which is still in line with WSW criteria. BWI is at 5", so right on the borderline of WSW criteria, but longevity of snowfall to achieve the amount will likely place BWI on the outside looking in for an initial WSW, but will likely maintain advisory and adjust up if necessary. Other areas of interest and mean snowfall forecast are as followed: OKV: 6.4" MRB: 5.4" FDK: 5" HGR: 4.3" APG: 3.7" OPL: 7.3" EZF: 7.4" CHO: 7.2" SHD: 8.2" NHK: 6.3" SBY: 4.1" GED: 5.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Hard to tell on IWM, but it looks like 1.25” qpf for DC on the NAM thru 31 hrs. Oh, NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, peribonca said: Any reports of precip from central VA yet? Cloudy 33 and radar hallucinations just outside richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 There is some really deep moisture and vorticity advection aloft. Soundings are gonna show some definite instability aloft. Pretty good signal for strong banding and possible convection (Thundersnow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Cannot show the graphic because it's in house only, but WPC Super Ensemble has around 6" mean for snow at DCA for the event, which is right in line with a lot of numerical model guidance. When you remove the 3 highest and lowest outliers, it's right at 6" still, so the prospects for warning level snowfall is above average for the DC metro. IAD is running a mean of around 6.3" which is still in line with WSW criteria. BWI is at 5", so right on the borderline of WSW criteria, but longevity of snowfall to achieve the amount will likely place BWI on the outside looking in for an initial WSW, but will likely maintain advisory and adjust up if necessary. Other areas of interest and mean snowfall forecast are as followed: OKV: 6.4" MRB: 5.4" FDK: 5" HGR: 4.3" APG: 3.7" OPL: 7.3" EZF: 7.4" CHO: 7.2" SHD: 8.2" NHK: 6.3" SBY: 4.1" GED: 5.3" Tremendous stuff, thank you @MillvilleWx hope we get a nice storm when you are in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Beachin said: Man this run is gonna be a beatdown lol I like your enthusiasm. Very nice indeed.28/23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Uh yeah you want convection you got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 NAM crushes Baltimore with heavy rates at noon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Hard to tell on IWM, but it looks like 1.25” qpf for DC on the NAM thru 31 hrs. Oh, NAM. And it's still snowing at 3pm tomorrow haha, brings the mix line almost up to EZF, that said, it is still the NAM but verbatim it's great for everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Hard to tell on IWM, but it looks like 1.25” qpf for DC on the NAM thru 31 hrs. Oh, NAM. NAM doing NAM things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Bigtime weeinie run, probably gonna be 10-12 for DC based on the way the radar looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Hard to tell on IWM, but it looks like 1.25” qpf for DC on the NAM thru 31 hrs. Oh, NAM. Even if you us the standard short range nam reality adjustment it's still .60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Yeah it’s the NAM, but Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Even if you us the standard short range nam reality adjustment it's still .60 It is just hanging around all afternoon. 1.5”+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Still coming down hard after sunset tomorrow evening, according to the NAM. I would've never expected a deform band like this a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 ITS STILL GOING OMG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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