Beachin Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: We won't need a ton of qpf if we get higher ratios...so if we can get a small bump to like .3 we could get 3-5" up here...but if the coastal continues to trend stronger but not strong enough to influence us that could kill our area if it robs the lift and moisture transport from the WAA wave to the north sooner and everything collapses south as the ccb develops. If that ccb then does us no good we end up with weak sauce up here. On the other hand... we are not within another 30-40 mile bump north from having a very good result even up here so its not impossible. We have seen it many times...we had about that much of a north adjustment at the end on the Dec 9 storm only it did us no good since we were 100 miles out of the game that time. I just checked kuchera ratios and they are around 14:1-15:1 For northern MD North of the 695-70 area so i agree it wont take much QPF to have a good snow up here. If the coastal continues its trend north then we can get even better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not sure I like the trend towards more coastal development for us up here. Our best shot was the WAA wave but that will shut off a little faster as the coastal takes over and so we are seeing the gradient tighten up...that could be good for DC and bad for us. Still time for another shift or two but not in love with the new look right now. So you think this will be the rare 1 in 20 event where your yard doesnt somehow find a way... no matter how jacked up or weird it is... to come in at or above dc and the suburbs? Eh, enjoy your jackpot. 3 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Kuchera ratios based off a blend of models DC south side 11:1 DC north side 12:1 Baltimore South side 12:1 Baltimore North side 13:1 going up as you go north Near the Masondixion 15:1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: So you think this will be the rare 1 in 20 event where your yard doesnt somehow find a way... no matter how jacked up or weird it is... to come in at or above dc and the suburbs? Eh, enjoy your jackpot. LOL I am not complaining...as obviously over any period of time I will win way more than lose and the "fringe" thing is mostly a joke now, BUT in these kinds of moderate events it can and has happened a bit more often then you think. The late Feb 2007 storm, March 2009, January 2010, The first March 2014 storm, Twice in Feb 2015... its possible for the urban corridor to get more than me. Not DCA they will record 1" even if everyone around has 4 but in general it does happen sometimes and this is the kind of situation where it COULD. Not saying I would bet on it... I don't need much qpf to win up here...even with less than ideal temperatures I typically have very good ratios here on this ridge and I am aware of it...but if the trend to tighten up the system continues and the ccb development ends up robbing the moisture transport into the WAA snow to the north it is possible we see a situation where there is a right cutoff between DC and the PA line. It's rare not impossible. I am not really worried about it yet...and if it happens oh well I will live and I will feel happy for you guys and at least it should improve the mood on this forum for a while! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 Now we're talking 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: LOL I am not complaining...as obviously over any period of time I will win way more than lose and the "fringe" thing is mostly a joke now, BUT in these kinds of moderate events it can and has happened a bit more often then you think. The late Feb 2007 storm, March 2009, January 2010, The first March 2014 storm, Twice in Feb 2015... its possible for the urban corridor to get more than me. Not DCA they will record 1" even if everyone around has 4 but in general it does happen sometimes and this is the kind of situation where it COULD. Not saying I would bet on it... I don't need much qpf to win up here...even with less than ideal temperatures I typically have very good ratios here on this ridge and I am aware of it...but if the trend to tighten up the system continues and the ccb development ends up robbing the moisture transport into the WAA snow to the north it is possible we see a situation where there is a right cutoff between DC and the PA line. It's rare not impossible. I am not really worried about it yet...and if it happens oh well I will live and I will feel happy for you guys and at least it should improve the mood on this forum for a while! like, a day. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: LOL I am not complaining...as obviously over any period of time I will win way more than lose and the "fringe" thing is mostly a joke now, BUT in these kinds of moderate events it can and has happened a bit more often then you think. The late Feb 2007 storm, March 2009, January 2010, The first March 2014 storm, Twice in Feb 2015... its possible for the urban corridor to get more than me. Not DCA they will record 1" even if everyone around has 4 but in general it does happen sometimes and this is the kind of situation where it COULD. Not saying I would bet on it... I don't need much qpf to win up here...even with less than ideal temperatures I typically have very good ratios here on this ridge and I am aware of it...but if the trend to tighten up the system continues and the ccb development ends up robbing the moisture transport into the WAA snow to the north it is possible we see a situation where there is a right cutoff between DC and the PA line. It's rare not impossible. I am not really worried about it yet...and if it happens oh well I will live and I will feel happy for you guys and at least it should improve the mood on this forum for a while! dude--i have never seen a DC metro event where you didnt end up getting the most. Congrats and see you on 1/22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6Z GFS Cobb data. I am not going to post the entire thing. It is too long. I will just post the highest snow total for each airport. If you want to see all of the data from your closest airport go here and enter your airport code: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kiad kmrb: 190113/0800Z 50 11004KT 28.7F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 8:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21 100| 0| 0 kiad: 190113/1400Z 56 07006KT 29.7F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 11:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0 kdca: 190113/1500Z 57 06007KT 31.4F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 9:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0 kbwi: 190113/1500Z 57 06007KT 29.9F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 10:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0 woo: 190113/2000Z 62 05006KT 29.6F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 9:1| 6.4|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.73 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Now we're talking Sweet! What’s your call for you, me, and @osfan24? Will I see you on the sledding hill? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: So you think this will be the rare 1 in 20 event where your yard doesnt somehow find a way... no matter how jacked up or weird it is... to come in at or above dc and the suburbs? Eh, enjoy your jackpot. It'll probably start snowing at his house before DC. Or DC will start as rain for some reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: It'll probably start snowing at his house before DC. Or DC will start as rain for some reason. DCA will somehow measure incorrectly and they'll have to "highly estimate" an inch of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Sweet! What’s your call for you, me, and @osfan24? Will I see you on the sledding hill? Haven't really wavered from a 2-4" for our yards in several days. Had moments where I was leaning higher (2 days ago) and leaning lower (yesterday evening). Hoping we close strong here and maybe inch up towards a 3-6" range, but not ready to make that call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, LeesburgWx said: So Ji and I received 5 inches from the November fluke storm. That is my bar for this storm. Although it will be MUCH colder this go around and will likely stick around for more than 18 hours we will have 10 inches by Jan 13th....is that good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Ji said: we will have 10 inches by Jan 13th....is that good? Nope. Disaster. 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12z RGEM meteogram for DCA -- still snowing after the end of the run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It'll probably start snowing at his house before DC. Or DC will start as rain for some reason. Honestly with a lot of these storms you are in the same boat as psuhoffman, such as this one, where it's looking drier north of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Yoda, this is snowing lightly? Rgem likes to get precip happy so it's likely too high imho Eta: meteo goes out to hr 54 right? If so scratch this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z RGEM meteogram for DCA -- still snowing lightly after the end of the run That looks solid Yoder. .8 QPF or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 @Bob Chill My fault, wrong window open. Yes, RGEM looks fantastic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 GFS at 24 looks more amped up at 500. Should be a great run incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: Honestly with a lot of these storms you are in the same boat as psuhoffman, such as this one, where it's looking drier north of Baltimore. PSU will do better than you, me and Phin. His elevation will help him out a lot. DC will do better than us. my guess anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: @Bob Chill My fault, wrong window open. Yes, RGEM looks fantastic lol Looka like the meteo runs out further than 48hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Snow into the Shenandoah Valley late morning tomorrow. Into DC early afternoon. Moderate snow into the area late evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: Honestly with a lot of these storms you are in the same boat as psuhoffman, such as this one, where it's looking drier north of Baltimore. It always starts snowing at his house before mine. Always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 RGEM looks like destruction 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, mappy said: PSU will do better than you, me and Phin. His elevation will help him out a lot. DC will do better than us. my guess anyways. Probably a good guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looka like the meteo runs out further than 48hrs? 00z/12z got to 48... 06z/18z go to 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Fozz said: Probably a good guess. I think his worrying creates extra lift in the atmosphere 5 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Gfs holds from 6z. Not much change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Man. The GFS is a really good run NOVA/DC south. Moderate snow pretty much all morning Sunday in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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