Ji Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Huh? Shows a region wide (DC/Balt) 2-4 and that is at 10 to 1 with even more in northern VA.The 6z did this yesterday too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Ji said: It lost its precip shield that protected us from a bust You set your bar too high too early man....tonight should be bar setting time...maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 12z EURO will save us ALL. No need to panic on this ehhh 06z run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 You set your bar too high too early man....tonight should be bar setting time...maybeWe have been trending down since 18z. Congrats showmesnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 NS is more suppresive this run. 8 minutes ago, Ji said: 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Huh? Shows a region wide (DC/Balt) 2-4 and that is at 10 to 1 with even more in northern VA. The 6z did this yesterday too Sorry Ji, had the wrong run up. You are right, pretty rough run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Funny how the Euro and the GFS have traded places in 24 hours. Euro gives us breathing room with advisory snows well to our north, GFS nasomuch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I'll take the more amped but more mixy fv3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Funny how the Euro and the GFS have traded places in 24 hours. Euro gives us breathing room with advisory snows well to our north, GFS nasomuch. Ensembles are pretty much useless. None shut us out but this is exactly what happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Funny how the Euro and the GFS have traded places in 24 hours. Euro gives us breathing room with advisory snows well to our north, GFS nasomuch. Ensembles are pretty much useless. None shut us out but this is exactly what happened I bet plenty shut us out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Heres 6 hours earlier. SW strength obviously weaker . Doesn't consolidate and you get the 6z result....a strungout solution The ne confluence imo doesn't have much of an effect here. We need a decent strength sw and we are good .Ya looks bad. Even icon gave us more. We need a comprise of 6z fv3 and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Meh. Off run of a broken government shutdown model. Good morning everyone. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 There seems to be a general trend across guidance to a weaker, more diffuse system as it heads east. and this is likely (mostly) due to the confluence up north. It looks like the models are beginning to come to a general consensus though on a light or low end moderate event, something like 2-4", possibly some places seeing 5-6. I am good with that. Lets just hope the wave doesn't end up completely squashed/crushed south as it moves east in future runs. (I will toss the 6z GFS for now lol). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 29 minutes ago, Ji said: 33 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: You set your bar too high too early man....tonight should be bar setting time...maybe We have been trending down since 18z. Congrats showmesnow. At 4+ days maybe hold off on the congrats? Despite what the latest run shows I did see positive move where we need to see it. NS is departing a little quicker then previous runs as can be seen up around NE. Get that feature out of the way quickly enough and let the southern low do its own thing and I think we could score a somewhat modest 2-4, 3-6 inch type deal. Let's see if we see a trend to move that out quicker on future runs. eta: Should add. We do need to see a fairly strong low running to our south. Not some weak POS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 At 4+ days maybe hold off on the congrats? Despite what the latest run shows I did see positive move where we need to see it. NS is departing a little quicker then previous runs as can be seen up around NE. Get that feature out of the way quickly enough and let the southern low do its own thing and I think we could score a somewhat modest 2-4, 3-6 inch type deal. Let's see if we see a trend to move that out quicker on future runs. eta: Should add. We do need to see a fairly strong low running to our south. Not some weak POS.Your jan 20 storm looks good on gfs. Euro gave us .5 for the weekend storm so there is still hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Today feels like an important day as far as trends go. Personally I haven't been expecting much but have been enjoying seeing the potential. If it's going to fizzle I'm hoping it does it today and not string us out till Thursday night or Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: At 4+ days maybe hold off on the congrats? Despite what the latest run shows I did see positive move where we need to see it. NS is departing a little quicker then previous runs as can be seen up around NE. Get that feature out of the way quickly enough and let the southern low do its own thing and I think we could score a somewhat modest 2-4, 3-6 inch type deal. Let's see if we see a trend to move that out quicker on future runs. eta: Should add. We do need to see a fairly strong low running to our south. Not some weak POS. Your jan 20 storm looks good on gfs. Euro gave us .5 for the weekend storm so there is still hope Pretty much hanging my hat on that one however that times out through Jan 20-22th. Think that storm has a lot of high end potential and nothing I have seen to this point has dissuaded me from that. But at 10+ days let's see where the models take us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6z ICON in a world by itself? Going for a delayed but much bigger storm for Monday now. Much more amped and diving N Plains sw into a better looking and consolidated stj sw at 120. Extrap likely a SECS/MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 JMA has similarities to Feb 1983 leading up to that storm evolution imo. Just not as deep latitude digging in the stj but aligned similar with key features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 CRAS also honking for a more amped up and bigger system. But then again what else is new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: CRAS also honking for a more amped up and bigger system. But then again what else is new. The CRAS joke never gets old. As long as we still have King Euro on our side today, feeling good for an event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 The latest from LWX: LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Strong/cold high pressure to the north and developing low pressure to the south near the Gulf Coast may spell trouble for the Mid- Atlantic this weekend. 500 hPa pattern is a little convoluted. A ridge over the western CONUS will be in a favorable place (anchored near 120 W which usually results in downstream trough amplification and coastal low track close enough to the Mid-Atlantic to bring substantial precipitation), but the ridge will be undercut by an incoming trough over southern CA. To what extent the ridge is diluted remains in question and is arguably the biggest single cause of spread in the latest guidance, but virtually everything now shows measurable snowfall across most of the area. Due to the more drawn out mid/upper height pattern (as opposed to a compact and deepening upper low approaching the coast), precipitation may ultimately be in an extended/lighter form, with the best chance for any heavier rates possibly coming Sunday morning (subject to change at this time range, of course). After the system exits, troughing will linger over New England with northwest flow keeping temperatures on the colder side through the middle part of next week. The current forecast for DCA: Saturday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Other forecasts: The Blue Ridge near I-66: Saturday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Fredericksburg: Saturday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 GEFS did back off with the snowfall means especially north of DC. Looking at the snowfall distribution we have the signature of a storm that slides to our south and runs OTS vs. the 00Z that had the look of a storm amplifying and running up the coast. eta: still quite a few nice hits in the mix but we are seeing a move to shift them south run over run. Roughly half the members now show and inch or two or less through the general DC/Balt region and north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6z gfs 4 days out and Ji is crying that it won’t snow. Hahaha give me a break man. I’ve never seen so many people live and die by each model run on every single model. The pattern is RIPE for a storm. The ingredients are all there and we’ve made major improvements at h5 since 2 nights ago. Things are going in the right direction in a big way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: GEFS did back off with the snowfall means especially north of DC. Looking at the snowfall distribution we have the signature of a storm that slides to our south and runs OTS vs. the 00Z that had the look of a storm amplifying and running up the coast. We will continue to see things waffle between now and tomorrow night. 00z Thursday night we will really begin to hone in on a consensus. 6z gets far less data, and the GFS particularly is almost always not amped enough versus the 00z run from the night before. How many times have we said “oh look 6z gfs takes away storm” just to see it come back on the 12z? Lets breathe guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 21 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: GEFS did back off with the snowfall means especially north of DC. Looking at the snowfall distribution we have the signature of a storm that slides to our south and runs OTS vs. the 00Z that had the look of a storm amplifying and running up the coast. eta: still quite a few nice hits in the mix but we are seeing a move to shift them south run over run. Roughly half the members now show and inch or two or less through the general DC/Balt region and north and west. So as novices we sit here and look at the ensemble runs from yesterday and see gobs and gobs of snow and now those same ensembles show the above. Raisins in cookies that look like chocolate chips or a trainer that says one more rep then adds another and ensemble runs are why I have trust problems 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just so we(mods and volunteers) don't hear a ton of crap about making a STORM MODE thread that then kills any storm, if you don't want that today then lets please keep posts on topic and NOT lose your shiit over any one model run. Thanks, The furloughed and not furloughed staff. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said: Funny how the Euro and the GFS have traded places in 24 hours. Euro gives us breathing room with advisory snows well to our north, GFS nasomuch. Ensembles are pretty much useless. None shut us out but this is exactly what happened Ncep is aware the gefs aren't dispersive enough. Hopefully they fix it soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 42 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: GEFS did back off with the snowfall means especially north of DC. Looking at the snowfall distribution we have the signature of a storm that slides to our south and runs OTS vs. the 00Z that had the look of a storm amplifying and running up the coast. eta: still quite a few nice hits in the mix but we are seeing a move to shift them south run over run. Roughly half the members now show and inch or two or less through the general DC/Balt region and north and west. Agree...EURO shows strung out look and GEFS ratifies. Still, light accumulating snow for most in our sub-forum with a possible six weeks of opportunities in the pipeline. For the 1/13 - 1/14 DEC PIC storm, we can expect multiple DEC PICS of 1" to 3". GEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6z Euro should be coming out around now, right? Around 2 hours after GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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