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Rtd208

January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

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PV really pressing on this, there could be some hefty snow totals for those on the right side of the gradient. 

This will have a very hard time cutting north, and we haven't exactly seen a north trend this season. If anything it's been a south one. 

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26 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs blows up the 1st wave for Friday. That might be a little treat before the main event.

We want an amped up solution for Friday. 

The main event looks good so far.

is it Friday yet lolol

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The actual track could be like the EPS mean. Path of least resistance between the pressing PV and SE Ridge. These hugger tracks have been very frequent since the fall.

I agree 100%.

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9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Lol. RIP NE

gfs_asnowd_neus_33.png

I assume they're using 20:1 ratios for the snow depth change calc?  Only explanation I can think of for having most of CT/MA/NH having twice the depth vs. the depth of snowfall using the 10:1 ratio in the graphic below.  Or is it because the 10:1 ratio graphic is somehow accounting for all the sleet that falls in much of NJ/NYC metro (at 3:1 for sleet, that significantly reduces the snowfall depth), although I always thought the "includes sleet...assuming 10:1 snow:liquid ratios" graphic meant that all of the sleet LE was converted to 10:1 snow, inflating snow depths.  I'm confused, lol.  

gfs_asnow_neus_33.png

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The actual track could be like the EPS mean. Path of least resistance between the pressing PV and SE Ridge. These hugger tracks have been very frequent since the fall.

3F3EE9A0-28A9-407C-B3CF-8B83E895A274.thumb.png.47ceef2faa1d93529eb834dae2f1b3d8.png

 

It all depends on the pv.

We have seen storms trend south because of it.

Major signal for a storm next Sunday with a small event on friday.

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2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I assume they're using 20:1 ratios for the snow depth change calc?  Only explanation I can think of for having most of CT/MA/NH having twice the depth vs. the depth of snowfall using the 10:1 ratio in the graphic below.  Or is it because the 10:1 ratio graphic is somehow accounting for all the sleet that falls in much of NJ/NYC metro (at 3:1 for sleet, that significantly reduces the snowfall depth), although I always thought the "includes sleet...assuming 10:1 snow:liquid ratios" graphic meant that all of the sleet LE was converted to 10:1 snow, inflating snow depths.  I'm confused, lol.  

gfs_asnow_neus_33.png

Usually the positive depth change map deflates weenies. Given how cold this system is progged 10:1 in interior NE is laughable.

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8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It all depends on the pv.

We have seen storms trend south because of it.

Major signal for a storm next Sunday with a small event on friday.

The exact track will really differentiate who gets snow vs. sleet. Boundary temps may be very cold throughout. 

EPS looks good and I don't think it'll change too much in the end. Ensembles do well with big storms even as far as a week out (example being SE storm in Dec). 

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As of 1 pm, Baltimore had picked up 5.6" snow and Washington, DC had received 5.4". That makes the ongoing storm the biggest snowfall in both cities since January 22-23, 2016. Washington, DC now has its snowiest winter since 2015-16 when 22.2" snow was recorded.

The SOI was -9.04 today. It has been negative for 12 out of the last 14 days.

The AO was -0.653. That is the 8th consecutive day the AO has been negative. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.063.

On January 12, the MJO was in Phase 8 with an amplitude of 0.802(RMM). That amplitude was below the January 11-adjusted figure of 1.062.

Uncertainty persists for the MJO's medium-term forecast. Taking into consideration the greater consistency of the statistical guidance, the MJO could spend an extended period at a low amplitude. The ensemble forecasts for a prolonged AO- are consistent with the MJO's being in a mainly low amplitude.

A predominant AO-/PNA+ combination remains likely after mid-month. The guidance continues to hint at the development of strong to perhaps severe blocking in the medium-range. An AO-/PNA+ combination has been present for most of the region's big January snowstorms. Since 1950, 68% of New York City's, 69% of Philadelphia's, and 64% of Washington D.C.'s 6" or greater January snowfalls occurred with a AO-/PNA+ combination.

Following this weekend's Middle Atlantic snowstorm, another storm could impact the region during the January 19-21 period and again during the January 23-25 period. The possibility exists for a widespread moderate to significant snowfall from either or both of these events.

The potential for above normal monthly snowfall remains on the table for such cities as Baltimore, Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Allentown, New York, Islip, and possibly Providence and Boston (where 0.2" snow has fallen to date, which is the lowest figure on record through January 13). With an estimated 7.5"-8.0" through 6 pm, Washington, DC has already received above normal snowfall for January. This storm is also Washington's 104th 6" or greater snowstorm. Baltimore had received an estimated 5.9"-6.1".

The probability of a colder than normal average monthly temperature in the New York City area continues to increase, especially as some of the guidance is suggesting the potential for a severe cold shot following the January 19-21 storm.

 

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1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said:

More likely white rain verbatim. Only surface appears to be above freezing.

 

I’m becoming more confident Friday may be snow.  The high is wedging in enough on many of today’s ensembles and the flow is weak off the water.  It’s also mid January now the water isn’t 60 degrees anymore.  I think maybe eastern LI would rain but probably most places snow if that track holds but we are still relatively far out 

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New GFS is ridiculously cold at the surface but it's a rain to sleetfest to single digit snowstorm. 

2" LE pretty much everywhere.

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10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’m becoming more confident Friday may be snow.  The high is wedging in enough on many of today’s ensembles and the flow is weak off the water.  It’s also mid January now the water isn’t 60 degrees anymore.  I think maybe eastern LI would rain but probably most places snow if that track holds but we are still relatively far out 

Glad I live on the North Shore now! ;)

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Remember a week ago when people were panicking and declaring January over?

Next weekend has major potential, but expect things to shift around a lot over the next five days.

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Just now, BlizzardNYC said:

Para back to a sleet/ice fest

A beautiful "2 LE beast. I'll gladly take 5" of sleet topped off by 4" of dust.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Remember a week ago when people were panicking and declaring January over?

Next weekend has major potential, but expect things to shift around a lot over the next five days.

Like I said you only need one storm to get 50%+ of your seasonal average and it seems we get at least one every year now.

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