SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 32 minutes ago, Snow88 said: A lot of snow Things divulge greatly after day 5 between the two GFS models. Speaking of which, isn't the Gfs about to get replaced soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Things divulge greatly after day 5 between the two GFS models. Speaking of which, isn't the Gfs about to get replaced soon. I believe this month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Gefs has a very cold pattern after the 20th. EPS is also similiar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Things divulge greatly after day 5 between the two GFS models. Speaking of which, isn't the Gfs about to get replaced soon. Kind of disappointing that the new version isn’t much better than the old one. There could be implementation delays with the govt shutdown. https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1081270401727193088 https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1081268461756661761 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Kind of disappointing that the new version isn’t much better than the old one. There could be implementation delays with the govt shutdown. https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1081270401727193088 https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1081268461756661761 Word is the new one is only slight better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: Gefs has a very cold pattern after the 20th. EPS is also similiar. I hope so, this is as dead in here as I've seen it in the last 9 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 17 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I hope so, this is as dead in here as I've seen it in the last 9 years. things should be picking up in here real soon since this is now in the medium range - plenty of cold enough air available with a cold high to the north - track of low is still in question 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 9 hours ago, bluewave said: JFK came close to wind advisory conditions with a 45 mph gust. I felt it lol my house was shaking. I thought 40 mph was wind advisory conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 15 hours ago, snowman19 said: I’m having doubts about the pattern going cold and snowy after 1/21 now, I had been optimistic until Friday night’s guidance. I will say this, if we get to 2/1 without a major pattern change, that isn’t transient, already in place, it will be a very, very bad sign what about all this cold and possible snow coming for next weekend? that looks like a sustained cold pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 14 hours ago, Juliancolton said: The Davis definitely holds its own. Over the holidays I got an Ambient WS-2902 as an "upgrade"/replacement to my failing decade-old system. Temp and moisture are really the only things I need to know, so while I considered buying a Davis, I went with the entry-level Ambient. At $160 for the whole package, its tipper gauge hasn't differed from the Stratus by more than 5 hundredths of an inch in each precip event so far. Granted, we haven't had any really challenging conditions yet, just steady rainfall rates with minimal wind. But given how accurate this glorified toy has proven, a more advanced system like the Davis should be pretty much bang-on. The anemometer is still a farce, though. anemometers are a pain to put up though lol especially in areas with a lot of tall objects around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 16 hours ago, bluewave said: The most prominent feature so far has been the split flow with the Northern Stream coming in stronger than normal for an El Niño. This pattern has only permitted cutter, hugger, or suppressed Suthern Stream storm tracks. Perfect benchmark tracks have been an endangered species. Good thing the November 15th hugger had so much cold air and arctic high pressure in place. Otherwise, we would only have a T so far. I have been saying for awhile that not getting any benchmark tracks at all this fall or early winter was a bit of a concern, things could turn 06-07 like in terms of storm tracks because usually you need to see the benchmark track get established early on even when its raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 12 hours ago, uncle W said: NYC can't set a record for the least amount of snowfall this year thanks to 6.4" in the November storm...2006-07 is in the lead for the least amount of snow up to January 6th...it had zero snowfall until a trace fell on January 10th...it was so bad the a priest in my church was praying for snow...the only none el nino on this list is 1999-2000...1973 had the latest measurable snow on record...it also had the least amount of snow for a season...2.8"...1919 had 1.4" on 3/23 to end up with 3.8"...1998 had the least amount of snow until a 5" snowfall on 3/22...it ended up with 5.5" for the season... 1/09/2007.....0 1/10/2007/73/00/66.. trace 1/19/2000/73/66...trace 1/28/1973.....trace 1/29/1995.....0.2" 2/04/1998.....0.5" 3/22/1919.....2.4" 3/28/1973.....2.8" to end... so 1997-98 had the latest measurable snow on record with that 0.5" on 2/4? or did 72-73 have no measurable snow until that 2.8" on 3/28? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 12 hours ago, bluewave said: 4th lowest seasonal snowfall by January 5th on record. 1 2000-01-05 0.0 0 2 1892-01-05 T 0 3 1958-01-05 0.1 0 4 2019-01-05 0.2 1 5 1944-01-05 0.3 0 6 1928-01-05 0.5 1 - 1926-01-05 0.5 0 8 2007-01-05 0.8 0 - 1999-01-05 0.8 0 10 2016-01-05 0.9 0 - 1901-01-05 0.9 0 12 2012-01-05 1.0 0 wasnt 1957-58 a really good strong el nino year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 11 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: The Pacific jet is the big question mark. If it continues to roar without any signs of it relaxing, then you might be right. Though even then I think the Nino influences would try to override it and we get a very cold Feb a la 06/07. So yeah I'm currently split between a 14/15 and 06/07 back-end. maybe more like be split between 12/13 and 06/07 14/15 was very extreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 11 hours ago, Cfa said: That’s the same station I have, I got it back in March after that storm at the beginning of the month wrecked my temp/humidity sensor. My wind readings are shot, since it’s an all-in-one station mounted at 5 feet, but everything else has been pretty spot on. My only complaint is the lack of an aspirating fan, on sunny mornings with dead calm winds my temperature runs a few degrees too high, but (thankfully) never to the point where it affects the daily high temperature. This happens roughly 1-2 times per month. you should mount it in the shade lol away from any sunlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 10 hours ago, Snow88 said: Agree Just like last month's storm the key is also the storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The guidance is continuing to indicate a significant pattern change around or perhaps shortly after mid-month. Already, important milestones along the way to this pattern change have been reached. The MJO moved into Phase 7. The SOI turned negative. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has just gone negative for the first time since December 25. The SOI was -8.66 today. It has now been negative for 7 consecutive days. The last time the SOI was negative for 7 or more consecutive days was September 18 through October 3, 2018, a stretch of 16 consecutive days. On January 5, the MJO was in Phase 7 with an amplitude of 2.442 (RMM). That amplitude was higher than the January 4-adjusted figure of 1.887. The MJO's progression has accelerated in recent days and it could reach Phase 8 as early as the January 6 reading. However, both the dynamical and statistical guidance suggests that the MJO's progression will likely slow again in coming days. There is the potential for a slow progression through Phase 8. With the MJO moving through Phase 7 at a high amplitude, the AO had been very likely go negative. Today's preliminary value for the AO was -0.615. As the MJO moves into Phase 8, the AO will likely become predominantly negative. The second week of January will very likely feature a sharp but transient cold shot. Moderation should occur afterward ahead of the larger pattern change to sustained cold. The risk of a moderate (4" or more) or significant (6" or more) snowfall will begin to increase as the MJO continues to move through Phase 7. That probability will increase even more once the MJO reaches and then advances through Phase 8. Already, several shortwaves in the January 13-15 and January 19-22 period bear watching. A predominant PNA+/AO- combination could develop near mid-month. Such a combination has been present for most of the region's big January snowstorms. Since 1950, 68% of New York City's and 69% of Philadelphia's 6" or greater January snowfalls occurred with a PNA+/AO- combination. All said, a month that featured unseasonable warmth during its first week could turn cold and snowy. Dramatic turns to colder weather have occurred in such El Niño winters as 1965-1966 and 2004-05. Winter 2018-19 appears to be in line for a similar flip. Finally, the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event that resulted in a reversal of the 1 mb and 10 mb zonal winds has also led to a splitting of the polar vortex. Some of the guidance suggests that the polar vortex will remain split through at least 360 hours. This situation would increase the prospects of an extended-duration polar blocking regime. Don does that mean the wind reversal has or will happen at 30 mb also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 33degs., or just Normal. EURO is 1" of Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS is 25% of at least 7" by the 23rd. This is because two members are 28" and 36" totals(13th.-14th., 19th. storms). Nice work if you can get it. JB could remove the noose with these babies. 26.9 at 6am here. Got near 26 by 8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Gefs and para Gfs are stil showing a storm signal for this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs and para Gfs are stil showing a storm signal for this weekend. Close on ECM/EPS too. EPS made some nice changes at 500mb out west...Pacific not crashing the party quite as hard as before w/ more ridging in the Rockies. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs and para Gfs are stil showing a storm signal for this weekend. Not getting excited at the moment. We need to get the other models on board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Close on ECM/EPS too. EPS made some nice changes at 500mb out west...Pacific not crashing the party quite as hard as before w/ more ridging in the Rockies. Agree Looked good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: We saw on December 11th how the northern stream was too strong to allow the STJ storm to come far enough north. So the Carolinas got the big snowstorm. Had the PAC Jet been weaker, I believe that would have been a major snowstorm for us. Just give me a stronger traditional El Niño where the STJ takes over and storms ride up then coast to the benchmark track. do you think as we get later in the season we're going to get fringed like we were in 12-13 and 13-14? It seems when these patterns switch over we get either a 06-07 type scenario where we get cases where the primary storm is too strong and we changeover or a further eastern track like 04-05, 12-13 and 13-14 when the best snows are over Suffolk County, CT and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Good Monday morning Jan 7. Looks to me like we've had our coldest temps here since Dec 19, (Central Park = Dec 8). I'm attaching snow depth and snow anomaly maps on this post and will reference these in a few days, as any changes evolve, first upper NYS/northern New England by the 9th, and then possibly NC-ne USA late next weekend-Monday. 829AM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, wdrag said: Good Monday morning Jan 7. Looks to me like we've had our coldest temps here since Dec 19, (Central Park = Dec 8). I'm attaching snow depth and snow anomaly maps on this post and will reference these in a few days, as any changes evolve, first upper NYS/northern New England by the 9th, and then possibly NC-ne USA late next weekend-Monday. 829AM. what are your current thoughts on the upcoming weekend storm potential ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I'm up for at least SOMETHING wintry here. It's snowed north, south, and west of me. A couple of inches is all I really want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don does that mean the wind reversal has or will happen at 30 mb also? It’s difficult to tell. The models are not in consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Closer to normal lows in the 20’s actually feel cold this morning. This was only the 2nd time on record that NYC didn’t drop below 30 degrees from Dec 20 to Jan 6. 1 2007-01-06 33 0 2 2019-01-06 31 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Closer to normal lows in the 20’s actually feel cold this morning. This was only the 2nd time on record that NYC didn’t drop below 30 degrees from Dec 20 to Jan 6. 1 2007-01-06 33 0 2 2019-01-06 31 0 19 here this morning-feels frigid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 19 here this morning-feels frigid! This is another one of those only in the 2010’s patterns. NYC still hasn’t been able to challenge the November low of 15 degrees. It’s January 7th and there are still no temperatures as cold in the forecast well into January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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