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pasnownut

Central PA - Winter 2018-19

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Just now, daxx said:

I gotta roll guys on vacation with family. I'll be on for late night.

Enormous thanks, and what dedication to be doing this while on vaca.  A true weenie.  See you tonight.

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4 minutes ago, daxx said:

I gotta roll guys on vacation with family. I'll be on for late night.

LOL, man you have been great but PLEASE do not stop your vacation for us.  

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12 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Pitt actually does quite well with that map. 

Hah. I know for some of you guys a foot and a half can seem ho-hum. In the mid Atlantic thread they’d be complaining it wasn’t two feet.

 

That, verbatim, would be a borderline top 5 all time storm for us.

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Add to the pile of less phased solutions...the JMA.  Sends the SE corner of PA above freezing for a bit but still a major winter storm.  1.5 to 1.75 of qpf.

imageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dffjma_z500_mslp_us_5.png

jma_apcpn_us_4.png

 

 

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1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

Add to the pile of less phased solutions...the JMA.  Sends the SE corner of PA above freezing for a bit but still a major winter storm.  1.5 to 1.75 of qpf.

image.thumb.png.53a2afc07e9a2616502c51a696adfba2.pngimageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dffjma_z500_mslp_us_5.png

jma_apcpn_us_4.png

I think that is actually the 1.25-1.5 contour over southern PA.

I hate reading these maps. I literally count contours starting at the dark blue to figure out which is which. It would be great if they didn’t use such similar coloring.

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2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I think that is actually the 1.25-1.5 contour over southern PA.

I hate reading these maps. I literally count contours starting at the dark blue to figure out which is which. It would be great if they didn’t use such similar coloring.

You are right and I did the same thing as you but miscounted the blues.  Thanks! 

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27 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

999c066f928e8c0dff06cc1175a0aaee.jpg


.

 

25 minutes ago, daxx said:

Mag, Williamsport and 2001 should be dancing in the streets with that run!

Woof 

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

The Euro snow map posted has 6 different contours running through Lancaster county.

Stephen (Carlisle) I think you might be spot on...with a potential gradient across my county as being depicted now, you might very well end up staying frozen throughout. 

Am I remembering from 2 days ago...it's Erik?  Or are you one of the 4 Mike's?  Haha.  What was your previous handle?  I'm having a hard time getting used to you being Itstrainingtime.  :)

You know I wasn't trying to argue with you about Horst.  I know his reputation is incredibly high and deservedly so.  I think we all keep swinging back and forth on the emotional pendulum.  It's just part of the realities of being wx weenies; particularly those of us who are getting a tad "older".  At least I don't have to think about the big "six-oh" for another 9 months.

The one thing I was amazed about regarding the 2 snowfall maps of the UKIE and Euro was that both models had me in the exact same contour...the 12-14".  I'm in no way expecting this...at least not yet.  But it's really nice to see two major models producing almost identical results for the time being.

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5 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I didn't have one last winter, but that was kind of my point. I'm being a little too soft on that designation. 

... 93 was the last time for me to see 16" or more.

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1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Am I remembering from 2 days ago...it's Erik?  Or are you one of the 4 Mike's?  Haha.  What was your previous handle?  I'm having a hard time getting used to you being Itstrainingtime.  :)

You know I wasn't trying to argue with you about Horst.  I know his reputation is incredibly high and deservedly so.  I think we all keep swinging back and forth on the emotional pendulum.  It's just part of the realities of being wx weenies; particularly those of us who are getting a tad "older".  At least I don't have to think about the big "six-oh" for another 9 months.

The one thing I was amazed about regarding the 2 snowfall maps of the UKIE and Euro was that both models had me in the exact same contour...the 12-14".  I'm in no way expecting this...at least not yet.  But it's really nice to see two major models producing almost identical results for the time being.

I'm one of the 4 Mike's. Nut is Erik. And I used to be Maytown but decided on a whim to mix things up and align my name with my occupation PLUS incorporating some weather into it...as in "training" storms. :) 

I know that you are probably one of the last people on here that is looking to argue! And I agree 100% about the emotional pendulum...my goodness i get sucked into the vacuum all the time. So with that said, we are good in every way!

The reality is this - despite how close we live it's in storms like this one that the distance means a lot. Your point about holding onto CAD and your temp being slow to warm up above freezing...I've seen that happen many times for you. Interestingly, for me it's kind of the opposite. I've been disappointed so many times in the past, particularly when I was younger and we seemed to have multiple storms like this each year (one that go snow>ice>rain) we (Lancaster area) always seemed to flip before we were "supposed to." I remember many a forecast for 3-6 or 4-8 down here before a changeover only to get 2" before the pingers would start. 

So to your point earlier, yes I'm sure Eric's forecast is specific to Lancaster and yes, it will come across as more "negative" than your perception because it's storms like this where you WILL do better than me, and perhaps significantly so. And that's exactly what the Ukie and Euro are currently showing. 

Anyway - it should be a fun few days. Let's hope we can all enjoy a nice winter storm this weekend. 

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm one of the 4 Mike's. Nut is Erik. And I used to be Maytown but decided on a whim to mix things up and align my name with my occupation PLUS incorporating some weather into it...as in "training" storms. :) 

 

So you work for a railroad? 

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Just now, bubbler86 said:

So you work for a railroad? 

lol I wish! Fact is I love trains. I actually had a year-long membership to the Strasburg Railroad in the past. Some of my vacations are built around riding trains. Cass West Virginia is a favorite trip of mine. :) 

So actually I work in HR in employee training and development. 

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I'm one of the 4 Mike's. Nut is Erik. And I used to be Maytown but decided on a whim to mix things up and align my name with my occupation PLUS incorporating some weather into it...as in "training" storms.  
I know that you are probably one of the last people on here that is looking to argue! And I agree 100% about the emotional pendulum...my goodness i get sucked into the vacuum all the time. So with that said, we are good in every way!
The reality is this - despite how close we live it's in storms like this one that the distance means a lot. Your point about holding onto CAD and your temp being slow to warm up above freezing...I've seen that happen many times for you. Interestingly, for me it's kind of the opposite. I've been disappointed so many times in the past, particularly when I was younger and we seemed to have multiple storms like this each year (one that go snow>ice>rain) we (Lancaster area) always seemed to flip before we were "supposed to." I remember many a forecast for 3-6 or 4-8 down here before a changeover only to get 2" before the pingers would start. 
So to your point earlier, yes I'm sure Eric's forecast is specific to Lancaster and yes, it will come across as more "negative" than your perception because it's storms like this where you WILL do better than me, and perhaps significantly so. And that's exactly what the Ukie and Euro are currently showing. 
Anyway - it should be a fun few days. Let's hope we can all enjoy a nice winter storm this weekend. 

The benefits of living close to the base of the mountain range. It’s really tough to scour out that cold air at all levels.


.

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

lol I wish! Fact is I love trains. I actually had a year-long membership to the Strasburg Railroad in the past. Some of my vacations are built around riding trains. Cass West Virginia is a favorite trip of mine. :) 

So actually I work in HR in employee training and development. 

LOL.  I figured you meant training people but I chuckled when I saw your first sentence.  I am sure you have been to Horseshoe Curve several times. 

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7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That might be true, but if you remember that little story I wrote 2 years ago called "A Day in the Life of the Central PA forum" I mentioned you in that story as getting snow 37 days in a row. :) 

Yes i do remember -lol.

 

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4 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

LOL.  I figured you meant training people but I chuckled when I saw your first sentence.  I am sure you have been to Horseshoe Curve several times. 

Oh my yes. East Broad Top railroad as well. (I believe it's closed now :( )

I'd like a 25 mile shift south from what the Euro output is. That should get everyone in this sub into good snow. We can do this right? 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Oh my yes. East Broad Top railroad as well. (I believe it's closed now :( )

I'd like a 25 mile shift south from what the Euro output is. That should get everyone in this sub into good snow. We can do this right? 

We are going to go out and try to visit the Curve this spring.  I like trains but probably not on the same level as you.

I need the shift as well so yes we are going to get it. I identify with the LSV because I have lived much of my life there but technically I am a bit south and west of it so while that EC map has people like Carlisle getting over a foot I am only getting 6-8" so for this specific issue we are in the same boat.  

 

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Thanks, Mike.  Great story.  I remember cracking up bigtime the day you posted that.  It was hilarious.

Regarding CAD...I have lived here about 5 miles south of the base of Blue Mountain for the past 7 years and I will say that boy can I hold on to the cold up until the very last minute.  It really comes down to how soon the winds mix the warmer air aloft down to the surface.  In many ZR events the time of the ZR has very little wind activity.  Usually as the event begins to wind down do the winds pick up and then my temp can shoot up very quickly.  MDT many times can be 10 degrees warmer than me in CAD events where I'm 31 and they're 41.  Microclimates are also exciting to observe all around, and each of us is our own representative of one.

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36 minutes ago, canderson said:

The Euro is damn cold. Monday someone in the mountains here might barely crack 10. 

Now consider a snowpack for Monday night. Somebody going negative.

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13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Oh my yes. East Broad Top railroad as well. (I believe it's closed now :( )

I'd like a 25 mile shift south from what the Euro output is. That should get everyone in this sub into good snow. We can do this right? 

EBT is closed except for I think a winter run the week after Thanksgiving. Rockhill Trolley Museum still functions a bit.

Signed,

Grew up in Orbisonia

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