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doncat

Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

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Just now, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

I agree. Although I think maybe a few more days. At the 29th? 

Never too early..88 looking at the 5th already.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been our longest “the big  snowstorm is just a week away pattern” in a while. It all started with the suppressed smowstorm back on the 11th.

Euro 12z Nov 30 run

6A49BE57-998E-43E0-821A-F63BDD717A9F.jpeg.eedf08a8b2ab91be5a1ce9165ef72efc.jpeg

The last time that continued for a longer stretch it lasted for the entire winter. 11/12. That would be an epic bust for long range forecasting. It’s not entirely out of the range of possibility. We have seen patterns lock. What we do not need is the pattern we do want finally coming back In March again. 

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15 hours ago, Rjay said:

@snowman19 can i please get the cliff notes to your winter forecast?   TIA

Sure, I think it’s cold/snowy starting in mid-January (1/15 or so) through mid to late February and that’s it. I don’t think March is cold/snowy this time around. The +QBO should be strengthening and decended into the lower stratosphere at that point, I think the high latitude blocking breaks down, pattern retrogrades and it’s onto spring by early March

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12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Sure, I think it’s cold/snowy starting in mid-January (1/15 or so) through mid to late February and that’s it. I don’t think March is cold/snowy this time around. The +QBO should be strengthening and decended into the lower stratosphere at that point, I think the high latitude blocking breaks down, pattern retrogrades and it’s onto spring by early March

That sounds reasonable. Also very good analysis.

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21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Sure, I think it’s cold/snowy starting in mid-January (1/15 or so) through mid to late February and that’s it. I don’t think March is cold/snowy this time around. The +QBO should be strengthening and decended into the lower stratosphere at that point, I think the high latitude blocking breaks down, pattern retrogrades and it’s onto spring by early March

Even though I hate the idea of 4-6 weeks of snow and cold, I would take it.   I love the idea of an early spring, not a winter that drags on forever

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EURO WEEKLIES have winter beginning Jan.  03 onward.    Does not seem too spectacular however.    In Jan. we could get away with it and have a snowstorm anyway if the Teleconnections/MJO conspire and  the SSW gives us some BN air on our side of the NP.         Next 30 on the CFS is  19BN  11AN

But just in case we get the BN air only........does anyone have a list of major snowstorms around here that have occurred with bad Teleconnections/MJO?    Thanks in advance.

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5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Sure, I think it’s cold/snowy starting in mid-January (1/15 or so) through mid to late February and that’s it. I don’t think March is cold/snowy this time around. The +QBO should be strengthening and decended into the lower stratosphere at that point, I think the high latitude blocking breaks down, pattern retrogrades and it’s onto spring by early March

That could be something like 1977-78, which was one of the analogs used.

 

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

EURO WEEKLIES have winter beginning Jan.  03 onward.    Does not seem too spectacular however.    In Jan. we could get away with it and have a snowstorm anyway if the Teleconnections/MJO conspire and  the SSW gives us some BN air on our side of the NP.         Next 30 on the CFS is  19BN  11AN

But just in case we get the BN air only........does anyone have a list of major snowstorms around here that have occurred with bad Teleconnections/MJO?    Thanks in advance.

This sounds ominous. 

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23 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Merry Christmas

Happy Christmas and New Year for everyone. It’s better to be wrapped in red, green, silver and gold, than your own tears. Someday I intend to take my own advice. As always ....

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REMEMBER?

One year ago today, temps. went below 32*, and then stayed there for 14.5 days and nights, including a blizzard like snowstorm.

A mere memory is all we got for this same time frame now.

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

REMEMBER?

One year ago today, temps. went below 32*, and then stayed there for 14.5 days and nights, including a blizzard like snowstorm.

A mere memory is all we got for this same time frame now.

Incredible stretch of cold.  We had a 2 inch snow on 12/28 that lasted on the ground for a week!

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