AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 It's not necessarily thermodynamics, there are less clouds across the US than anytime since before April. It's been this way for 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 oh you mean dry precipitation wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah. I mean it’s pretty shameful we need storm mode to keep people focused, but it is what it is. nah. the mods all got together and planned to go into storm mode, just so we can flex some powers and delete things. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On election night what drives me nuts is when they project a winner with less than 1% of the precincts reporting. Same thing in the model threads... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I doubt a 1036 high over my house is a good thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I always get DDweatherman confused with DCteacherman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Did you see there's a surprise Winter Storm Warning in Atlantic City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I doubt a 1036 high over my house is a good thing. Be sure to look up on Sunday and see if its there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: To be clear I’m not criticizing the mods, the job is a tough balancing act and you have to make a call. It’s just a bit disappointing to see so many bad posts from rookies and vets alike. Someone did make a good post earlier though—there was no preseason to acclimate people to what the collective expectations are. Downside to a historic early snow event. We kinda let the first event fly with no effort to rein things in due to it being an early event out of the norm. So let people have fun because it was unusual and enjoyable. I think that got people thinking that it was ok to do that again despite hitting met winter when legit snows were on the table. So now the scolding seems harsher for some because they wanted to be allowed to play all season long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I know it's because we have nothing else better to do but dang...kill this thing already. As much as we want to say the models are shifting and jumping...they really haven't. Draw a circle from Richmond over to Roanoke down through maybe Charlotte and up through Raleigh. Has been the qpf bullseye for about a week now. Wet or White is the only open question in my head for them. For my house...I personally don't think it makes it here but I will continue to watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Gotta say, for the Carolinas and SW VA, this thing locked in for them early and never really wavered. Maybe their version of our Jan '16 where the models were on it early and kept painting the bullseye generally across our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Gut punch by the Euro...definitely wasn’t expecting that given 0z last night and even the 6z EPS. Seems we’re on life support but lots of moving parts so could still see DC getting in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I see the white flags being raised lol. Nothing good from the euro. On to the next !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: South Jersey getting crushed with that IVT Yeah. That was very well modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I told @stormtracker it was too soon for storm mode 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Don't worry, we will cash in in March. Just in time when -20 airmasses result in slushy 33F snows .... at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The pics from my in-laws in Brevard, NC and my daughter in Greensboro, NC should be epic, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Even though this one isn't, many other storms will trend north this year. To NYC and Boston. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, mappy said: I told @stormtracker it was too soon for storm mode That's what I said when I first saw it! I was like "The heck, Randy??!" I didn't understand that at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Even though this one isn't, many other storms will trend north this year. To NYC and Boston. Exactly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 24 minutes ago, H2O said: We kinda let the first event fly with no effort to rein things in due to it being an early event out of the norm. So let people have fun because it was unusual and enjoyable. I think that got people thinking that it was ok to do that again despite hitting met winter when legit snows were on the table. So now the scolding seems harsher for some because they wanted to be allowed to play all season long. I know for me personally...my objection to the storm mode came from what we're, well...NOT seeing on most of the models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: That's what I said when I first saw it! I was like "The heck, Randy??!" I didn't understand that at all... ive been texting randy all morning saying we needed storm mode. my post was in jest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Anyone think the 12z Euro has this thing nailed? It still may miss south, but it ain't gonna go down quite like that. I expect come incremental, maybe meaningful, changes over the next few model cycles. Still some uncertainty with the NS shortwave(s) coming in off the PAC and the degree of interaction with the ss shortwave, and that is key to how this system evolves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I need the snowfall contest opened back up so I can change my predictions back down by a foot across the board... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: ive been texting randy all morning saying we needed storm mode. my post was in jest. So it was more for keeping order than for the storm chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, North Balti Zen said: I need the snowfall contest opened back up so I can change my predictions back down by a foot across the board... You're really gonna do that on Dec. 5th in a nino year?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I don't understand how some think OPs are locked in 4-5 days out. While people always point to January 2016 as being "locked in" and not shifting, forget that for many model runs, it appeared NJ/NYC was on the outside, looking in. When all was said and done, NYC ended up with more snow than DC. Obviously different setups and different reasons for the "north shift" but I'm not sure why people assume this is the final solution. Obviously, mountains of NC and SW VA are certainly favored for seeing the highest impacts but NVA/DC/Central MD are certainly not out of the game at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Anyone think the 12z Euro has this thing nailed? It still may miss south, but it ain't gonna go down quite like that. I expect come incremental, maybe meaningful, changes over the next few model cycles. Still some uncertainty with the NS shortwave(s) coming in off the PAC and the degree of interaction with the ss shortwave, and that is key to how this system evolves. Maybe meaningful is not meaningful enough when we need bigger trends around here. I don't think I can play the "inches north" game with this one...For me, it's either seeing something different with the shortwave, or nothing at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: You're really gonna do that on Dec. 5th in a nino year?... Your joke meter needs to be calibrated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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