December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Even in 1980 DC ended up above normal snowfall. But some epic bad luck prevented it from being a blockbuster year as several BIG storms got mostly suppressed just south of D.C. It was an epic winter for central VA to NC. But seriously it's not worth worrying about it. Could that happen. Sure...but odds are against it and we can't change it by worrying so why bother?  

Well maybe DC was above average...but according to the chart I have, Baltimore only had a little over 14 inches--so below average up here! (and quite an unusual total for a weak or mod nino...not sure that had happened before--besides the raging AO 1994/95 season--but at least that season had a concrete reason). I am just afraid that this weekend's storm might set a precedent (unless you give me other successful winters where we missed a storm south at some point, but recovered on the subsequent threats) I mean...1980's storms were ruined by NS confluence, right? And we see that this weekend...

(and btw, I'm not being stubborn on my point, just...don't wanna see a great pattern go to waste and be below climo for a 3rd straight year)

[Wxdavis5784]

4 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Same thing, over the Aleutian islands its wave after wave of Lows cutting into the RNA ridge. This is new model development, it will be hard to -PNA this Winter. 
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

Dude... you need to seriously see a psychiatrist... Your statements change by the minute...

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

Feb/Early March 2015 was -epo/+pna driven, wasn't it?

Yes, entirely pac driven. Very similar to what we saw in jan/feb/mar 2014. It was a very lucky stretch and unlikely to repeat even if we get the same pattern. Those types of progressive patterns generally don't snow that much here. Mixed and/or ice events are much more common. 

2013-15 was also almost entirely northern stream storms too. Gulf and stj were mostly closed for business. If we get a prolonged -epo/+pna this winter it would prob support juiced up southern stream storms. Add in a -ao/nao and it would favor slow moving southern stream storms... but that's getting ahead of ourselves a little. We can dream though...

[psuhoffman]

41 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well maybe DC was above average...but according to the chart I have, Baltimore only had a little over 14 inches--so below average up here! (and quite an unusual total for a weak or mod nino...not sure that had happened before--besides the raging AO 1994/95 season--but at least that season had a concrete reason). I am just afraid that this weekend's storm might set a precedent (unless you give me other successful winters where we missed a storm south at some point, but recovered on the subsequent threats) I mean...1980's storms were ruined by NS confluence, right? And we see that this weekend...

(and btw, I'm not being stubborn on my point, just...don't wanna see a great pattern go to waste and be below climo for a 3rd straight year)

Yea forgot you are up here. Maryland was a massive screw zone that year. There were 2 major storms that got suppressed. Both due to a 50/50 south of ideal creating too much confluence. Yes similar. But again it's one example out of many analogs that mostly were good endings. 

Thos was the January storm that stayed south. 

this is the march storm that went south  

looking at the pattern for the winter the blocking looks great and you would think even with the flaws I'm about to point out we should have done ok at least.  

This was the h5 for dec 20-mar 10

The blocking is good but everything at the mid latitudes is shifted east of ideal. The Pacific trough is pinching in on the west coast too much.   No pna help. The trough in the east is centered east of ideal. I could see from that how suppression could be an issue.  But it still took bad luck to end up below normal in that look. 

The guidance right now doesn't suggest those issues. The h5 pattern almost all long range guidance suggests is perfect. Can I promise it won't morph into that and screw us over...if course not. But is it worth losing sleep over...not in my opinion.  

[Bob Chill]

54 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Add my nightmares to that...lol You got me a little freaked out by 1980 now...but yes, if 1980 DOESN'T happen, we oughta be good!!

The current southern slider is happening because of a transient block and not a stable -nao. It's just bad luck that it's suppressed. It can happen in any winter and isn't setting some sort of precedent. If we had a -3sd nao block it would be different. Pull h5 composite anomaly charts from 1980 and it's easy to see.  It was a stable suppressive pattern. 

Don't take this the wrong way but don't be so paranoid about missing this weekend. I'd welcome the same pattern any day during any winter. It's an excellent east coast storm pattern. They can break the wrong way. It's always been and always will be part of the game. Our area generally needs 4 legit chances to score 1 storm. We hit Nov but we're missing now.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The current southern slider is happening because of a transient block and not a stable -nao. It's just bad luck that it's suppressed. It can happen in any winter and isn't setting some sort of precedent. If we had a -3sd nao block it would be different. Pull h5 composite anomaly charts from 1980 and it's easy to see.  It was a stable suppressive pattern. 

Don't take this the wrong way but don't be so paranoid about missing this weekend. I'd welcome the same pattern any day during any winter. It's an excellent east coast storm pattern. They can break the wrong way. It's always been and always will be part of the game. Our area generally needs 4 legit chances to score 1 storm. We hit Nov but we're missing now.

Totally agree. I posted the h5s from 1980 above. You can see some of the imperfections that caused issues.  

[mattie g]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The current southern slider is happening because of a transient block and not a stable -nao. It's just bad luck that it's suppressed. It can happen in any winter and isn't setting some sort of precedent. If we had a -3sd nao block it would be different. Pull h5 composite anomaly charts from 1980 and it's easy to see.  It was a stable suppressive pattern. 

Don't take this the wrong way but don't be so paranoid about missing this weekend. I'd welcome the same pattern any day during any winter. It's an excellent east coast storm pattern. They can break the wrong way. It's always been and always will be part of the game. Our area generally needs 4 legit chances to score 1 storm. We hit Nov but we're missing now.

Thanks for this, Bob (and psu).

Maestro...you need to calm down.

[WxUSAF]

Per GEFS, our mid month torch pattern involves about 18-24 hours of above normal temps next Friday-Saturday, and then seasonable to slightly below normal through the following week. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Per GEFS, our mid month torch pattern involves about 18-24 hours of above normal temps next Friday-Saturday, and then seasonable to slightly below normal through the following week. 

Great, another December day wasted.

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Per GEFS, our mid month torch pattern involves about 18-24 hours of above normal temps next Friday-Saturday, and then seasonable to slightly below normal through the following week. 

But it's gonna be an awful 18-24 hours!!!  Lol 

Obviously this is just perception but I always thought one sign of a great season was when the bad periods weren't that bad and quickly reloaded. 

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But it's gonna be an awful 18-24 hours!!!  Lol 

Obviously this is just perception but I always thought one sign of a great season was when the bad periods weren't that bad and quickly reloaded. 

A sign of a great season to me will be when we are tracking a snowstorm again.  If we don’t get measurable snow in December I willl feel like a third of the winter was wasted.  Even if it’s just one event that delivers advisory level. 

[poolz1]

Rushed? Possibly....but this has the look of serious cold getting involved with the pattern in time.  Ridge near the Kara sea popping at the same time the EPO ridge is about to get a serious roids injection with the Aleutian trough getting into a prime position.  If it was not a nino, I would be concerned about cold/dry but I think the stj will give us the goods... got a warm cozy feeling about Jan...especially after the 5th or so for snow possibilities....tho, I'm not discounting scoring something between now and then.

 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Subsurface is strengthening so that favors +PNA sooner.. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Totally agree. I posted the h5s from 1980 above. You can see some of the imperfections that caused issues.  

So...those imperfections...at least at this point, don't appear to be present in what's being modeled for this year? If so...good to know, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

The current southern slider is happening because of a transient block and not a stable -nao. It's just bad luck that it's suppressed. It can happen in any winter and isn't setting some sort of precedent. If we had a -3sd nao block it would be different. Pull h5 composite anomaly charts from 1980 and it's easy to see.  It was a stable suppressive pattern. 

Don't take this the wrong way but don't be so paranoid about missing this weekend. I'd welcome the same pattern any day during any winter. It's an excellent east coast storm pattern. They can break the wrong way. It's always been and always will be part of the game. Our area generally needs 4 legit chances to score 1 storm. We hit Nov but we're missing now.

Ah, so 1980 was more than just some unlucky timing...but one feature in particular that was keeping things suppressed?

And you're right...I am being a bit paranoid. The last two years made me that way...all the misses have made me more desperate for warning snowfall again. Just don't want another winter fail...(And yeah, I know we sometimes need like 4 chances to get one hit...)

[showmethesnow]

7 hours ago, BristowWx said:

A sign of a great season to me will be when we are tracking a snowstorm again.  If we don’t get measurable snow in December I willl feel like a third of the winter was wasted.  Even if it’s just one event that delivers advisory level. 

But haven't you heard, March is the new December. So we haven't even hit our 3 winter months. Anything in December is just bonus snow. 

[CAPE]

49 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

But haven't you heard, March is the new December. So we haven't even hit our 3 winter months. Anything in December is just bonus snow. 

He better get his mind right, lol. The pattern going forward looks like it will evolve into something even more favorable, but looking at the current LR guidance, it appears a frozen event for the MA would be a long shot until maybe the very end of December. Mostly Pacific air in place, and as the pattern is improving in the E/NPAC and up top, it looks like a trough will initially be to our west. Upshot is the next legit chance for a winter storm could be 2+ weeks away. The way things look now, the week between Xmas and New Years might be interesting.

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

He better get his mind right, lol. The pattern going forward looks like it will evolve into something even more favorable, but looking at the current LR guidance, it appears a frozen event for the MA would be a long shot until maybe the very end of December. Mostly Pacific air in place, and as the pattern is improving in the E/NPAC and up top, it looks like a trough will initially be to our west. Upshot is the next legit chance for a winter storm could be 2+ weeks away. The way things look now, the week between Xmas and New Years might be interesting.

There is only so many times we can say that indications are strong that we are moving into a great setup. One that has the potential to be long lasting and with just a little luck could be a block buster. If they want to worry until they start measuring then so be it. 

Keep an eye on the period just before Christmas into Christmas. The setup on the last few days of runs are moving in a positive direction for that period of time (talking at the end of the model runs so take it for what it is worth). Like seeing the strong height anomalies over central/eastern Canada which would tend to force systems southward and keep them from cutting. Also gives much more leeway for the trough setting up farther to the west then we prefer to see. And as far as the trough being favored in the west at this time? Guessing that may be somewhat misleading. With those higher heights in Canada that probably argues for shifting that trough eastward more to the central CONUS. What we may be seeing with that western trough may actually be the models are seeing a cut off low/southern based trough. And with the setup at that time I think it would argue that feature would be over cut and bypassed by the NS flow giving us a split flow. Short of a full blown dump of the NS into the SW we would probably be fine. 

Just by going with what the models show at this time, we are at the end of the model runs after all, I would not be surprised if what we were to see through that period of time is a SW trough/low over-cut by a +PNA with a trough setting up in the central portion of the CONUS. With the higher heights in Canada this would be a good setup for any possible system during that period of time. As far as temps for any possible system? Think they would be much more favorable then most would think because we would more then likely see cold undercutting the higher heights in that setup.

Again, just speculation from models at the end of their runs so take it for what it is worth. 

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

He better get his mind right, lol. The pattern going forward looks like it will evolve into something even more favorable, but looking at the current LR guidance, it appears a frozen event for the MA would be a long shot until maybe the very end of December. Mostly Pacific air in place, and as the pattern is improving in the E/NPAC and up top, it looks like a trough will initially be to our west. Upshot is the next legit chance for a winter storm could be 2+ weeks away. The way things look now, the week between Xmas and New Years might be interesting.

I’m working on that mind issue. Xmas week would be just fine.  

[BristowWx]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

But haven't you heard, March is the new December. So we haven't even hit our 3 winter months. Anything in December is just bonus snow. 

I know.  Tough week.  We’ll get there eventually.  Mid November snow altered my perception a bit.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

There is only so many times we can say that indications are strong that we are moving into a great setup. One that has the potential to be long lasting and with just a little luck could be a block buster. If they want to worry until they start measuring then so be it. 

Keep an eye on the period just before Christmas into Christmas. The setup on the last few days of runs are moving in a positive direction for that period of time (talking at the end of the model runs so take it for what it is worth). Like seeing the strong height anomalies over central/eastern Canada which would tend to force systems southward and keep them from cutting. Also gives much more leeway for the trough setting up farther to the west then we prefer to see. And as far as the trough being favored in the west at this time? Guessing that may be somewhat misleading. With those higher heights in Canada that probably argues for shifting that trough eastward more to the central CONUS. What we may be seeing with that western trough may actually be the models are seeing a cut off low/southern based trough. And with the setup at that time I think it would argue that feature would be over cut and bypassed by the NS flow giving us a split flow. Short of a full blown dump of the NS into the SW we would probably be fine. 

Just by going with what the models show at this time, we are at the end of the model runs after all, I would not be surprised if what we were to see through that period of time is a SW trough/low over-cut by a +PNA with a trough setting up in the central portion of the CONUS. With the higher heights in Canada this would be a good setup for any possible system during that period of time. As far as temps for any possible system? Think they would be much more favorable then most would think because we would more then likely see cold undercutting the higher heights in that setup.

Again, just speculation from models at the end of their runs so take it for what it is worth. 

Its possible we could get lucky and sneak something in during the period just before Xmas. Not a bad look on the ensembles. GEFS looks better than the EPS. But yeah its a couple weeks out, so we watch and wait like always lol. I just want a favorable pattern established heading into Jan. For now, scoring a frozen event towards the end of Dec would be a bonus- that's the way I am approaching it.

 

eta- just took a quick look at the 6z GEFS and still a decent signal there for something wintry during the pre Xmas period. EPS remains pretty unimpressed about the prospects though lol.

[poolz1]

It could be the typical Euro bias of trying to dump cold into the west and then dragging it's heels in moving the trough eastward. Not discounting the idea but if it does occur I think its most likely all part of the shift.  Just like when the AK blue ball was showing up at the end of the runs...a menacing look but in reality its just part of the progression.  EPS has also been growing colder at the end of its runs...0Z being the coldest yet.  A good sign that we will have cold working back into the pattern sooner rather than later.

[PivotPoint]

Lack of cold air in the 10 day isn’t exactly what you’d call confidence building for our snow chances 

 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Lack of cold air in the 10 day isn’t exactly what you’d call confidence building for our snow chances 

 

It's going to get warmer for a short time. The brief transit of the vortex across Alaska will take a toll. But you cherry picked the worst day of the worst op run recently.  

This is the gefs same time 

by no means a cold look but it's mid December by then and with signs something could cut under the ridge that look is workable. No one said probable though. Honestly we are probably waiting until after Xmas to have a good pattern. 

You can see cold rebuilding into the pattern by then...

the EPS dumps the trough into the west first but that is a common bias and even if it's right rolling this look forward a few days it would get good fast. 

-NAO/AO/EPO... I guarantee you it won't stay warm very long in that look.  If all the guidance (supported by analogs) come to fruition the warministas are living on extremely borrowed time!

 

[poolz1]

I love the big storm chances for this season but I am hoping we get a few "normal" snow storms.  I loved the storms of 13/14.  Being on the right side of a pressing arctic airmass with a juiced stj slamming into it.  Cold powder where every flake counts and the overrunning precip breaks out 3-4 hours before any model indicated... Daydreaming a little but if we get any of these type of storms, Jan looks to be our best bet I think.  

[PivotPoint]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's going to get warmer for a short time. The brief transit of the vortex across Alaska will take a toll. But you cherry picked the worst day of the worst op run recently.  

This is the gefs same time 

by no means a cold look but it's mid December by then and with signs something could cut under the ridge that look is workable. No one said probable though. Honestly we are probably waiting until after Xmas to have a good pattern. 

You can see cold rebuilding into the pattern by then...

the EPS dumps the trough into the west first but that is a common bias and even if it's right rolling this look forward a few days it would get good fast. 

-NAO/AO/EPO... I guarantee you it won't stay warm very long in that look.  If all the guidance (supported by analogs) come to fruition the warministas are living on extremely borrowed time!

 

Oh, yea I 100% cherry picked that to demonstrate the lack of 2m cold on this side of the globe.

 Good analysis on your part.The one factor I see working in our favor is when you roll that image through time you see riding start to build back over Alaska and cold dumping to the west coast. We know in those scenarios it’s just a matter of time before that cold slides east and with even mild blocking in the NAO domain you can get east coast action.

 

What I don’t like is the mjo forecasted to go into warm phases for east coast then crash into the cod. 

 

But it give me an active southern jet and marginal cold air, and to your point, we can score in late December with that look.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I love the big storm chances for this season but I am hoping we get a few "normal" snow storms.  I loved the storms of 13/14.  Being on the right side of a pressing arctic airmass with a juiced stj slamming into it.  Cold powder where every flake counts and the overrunning precip breaks out 3-4 hours before any model indicated... Daydreaming a little but if we get any of these type of storms, Jan looks to be our best bet I think.  

I don't care how it snows I just want it to snow. I'll take fluke freak uber lake effect band that drops 5" and be thrilled. Snow is snow. But I agree having some moderate storms mixed in would be nice. Spread it out some. 

[poolz1]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't care how it snows I just want it to snow. I'll take fluke freak uber lake effect band that drops 5" and be thrilled. Snow is snow. But I agree having some moderate storms mixed in would be nice. Spread it out some. 

Ha! True....Im not picky either...only when I daydream.  Give me a high of 33 with astroids and I'll be just as happy.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Ha! True....Im not picky either...only when I daydream.  Give me a high of 33 with astroids and I'll be just as happy.

Wet snow is my favorite, get it to freeze up at night and I can hold snowcover up here for a while sometimes. Dry snow sublimates and blows away. 

[frd]

I am really beginning to think things could really get going here after December 26 th. 

The progression at the top looks very good and instead of forecasts for PV assaults lessening they only continue to grow.

Heat it up