OSUmetstud Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Versus this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 50 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Very odd, SOI continues to climb too. If it's not a Nina then it's at least La Nada. Some people in the ENSO thread were legit claiming that this could be a strong el nino like a month ago....oops. Its also been trending more canonical for the past three months, yet the modoki value has remained the same....neat trick. Periods of RNA are evident in the analog composite of weak modoki events, especially early....there is some chance that it could become a theme throughout the season, but that is an issue for another forum. I'd still bet against it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Yeah EPS dims the EPO look so we hope that's a little overdone. We have the Western/southwestern troughing on both ensembles but EPS is less cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The eps doesn't have an -EPO from what I can see. You have any thought on that? 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Versus this. Interesting. I was told the GEFS caved to the EPS. Not sure I see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 When you say RNA, do you mean -PNA??? That RNA connotation is confusing to me?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Just now, Zach’s Pop said: Interesting. I was told the GEFS caved to the EPS. Not sure I see it It did. Western troughing that you trolled Scott over...lol. They both have Western troughing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Just now, Zach’s Pop said: Interesting. I was told the GEFS caved to the EPS. Not sure I see it EPS for the warm and rainy types; GEFS for the cold and snowy. If it were an election guess who wins? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It did. Western troughing that you trolled Scott over...lol. They both have Western troughing now. What would that (GEFS) set up mean for us? Transcontinental cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 How is winter looking over the next 2 weeks in Lancaster, PA this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: How is winter looking over the next 2 weeks in Lancaster, PA this morning? Close the shades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 18 minutes ago, dryslot said: A seal fart and its warning snows...........lol Has the potential to be a Feb '69/Dec '76 event qualitatively speaking...meaning the main area of impact. You and I could end up with our own private event, but especially you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Close the shades. Chance of an angry, racist post: 80% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: When you say RNA, do you mean -PNA??? That RNA connotation is confusing to me?? Yes...reverse PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: When you say RNA, do you mean -PNA??? That RNA connotation is confusing to me?? Yeah it's the same thing. RNA just stands for reverse PNA but it's one less character than -PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If you recall I had a convo over a week ago with Jerry about a very gentle mild up and that the month was a lock to finish BN at the big 4. There was a lot of disagreement with that . It’s a very very benign mild up I would not be at all surprised if most or all finish at BN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The eps doesn't have an -EPO from what I can see. You have any thought on that? Yeah if you loop both the GEFS and EPS you’ll see it sort of shifts west and is not as amplified. Moreso on the EPS as you showed. However there is enough ridging in AK to help keep the cold in Canada and lurking nearby. Hopefully that does not go away. I have to imagine at some point the ridging shifts east again. You’ll probably see this show up in model height fields adjusting higher and higher gradually from run to run. Would think sometime in January? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Has the potential to be a Feb '69/Dec '76 event qualitatively speaking...meaning the main area of impact. You and I could end up with out own private event, but especially you. Right now it certainly favors DE Maine for the higher impact on this one, But like we said, Its not far off for something better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Chance of an angry, racist post: 80% Wut?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah if you loop both the GEFS and EPS you’ll see it sort of shifts west and is not as amplified. Moreso on the EPS as you showed. However there is enough ridging in AK to help keep the cold in Canada and lurking nearby. Hopefully that does not go away. I have to imagine at some point the ridging shifts east again. You’ll probably see this show up in model height fields adjusting higher and higher gradually from run to run. Would think sometime in January? Yeah there still cross polar flow N of AK. You can see it on the height lines on the EPS there in that map...it's just not nearly as amped there as GEFS. Both now have SW troughing though so both have gradient type patterns. We don't need to rehash the pros and cons in New England of that type of pattern. We could do well or we could get skunked. It's the unmanned firehose analogy without downstream blocking. The weeklies did start looking a little blocker in early January though around Davis strait so we shall see if that starts to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: How is winter looking over the next 2 weeks in Lancaster, PA this morning? Amish rolling in covered wagons? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 The Sunday night event is SNE and then OTS. Not sure what the talk of a bomb is. That’s for the martimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah there still cross polar flow N of AK. You can see it on the height lines on the EPS there in that map...it's just not nearly as amped there as GEFS. Both now have SW troughing though so both have gradient type patterns. We don't need to rehash the pros and cons in New England of that type of pattern. We could do well or we could get skunked. It's the unmanned firehose analogy without downstream blocking. The weeklies did start looking a little blocker in early January though around Davis strait so we shall see if that starts to materialize. I could be a situation where the the gradient is north later in December, and then gradually shifts southward as we march into the new year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 34 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said: I noticed the mets on here are very very sensitive. They like to dish it out but get agitated when a past forecast gets brought up. Just the man I want to see. How you doing old buddy? 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: The Sunday night event is SNE and then OTS. Not sure what the talk of a bomb is. That’s for the martimes I don't think I saw mention of a bomb, but downeast ME has the best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think I saw mention of a bomb, but downeast ME has the best shot. Everything shunts east though. Not north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: The EPO really crashes in the 11-15 day. That’s what the weeklies suggest too. It’s an ok look verbatim, but I wouldn’t say it’s the prettiest. We take though....We had a pretty pattern just now, and got skunked, so let's take our chances with the "Not So Pretty" pattern, and maybe she's a lil nicer to us than the Lil Hottie pattern that left us high and dry. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think I saw mention of a bomb, but downeast ME has the best shot. Nobody did, Some have reading issues, DE Maine does have the best shot at something siggy, 12z Nam just made a move in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Everything shunts east though. Not north That depends on if any of the n stream gets involved....likely too late for us, regardless....but perhaps not for Eastport, ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Mm... sorry if this 'seems' over-the-top or perhaps overtly dramatic ... still, I'd be careful. 'Been thinking about this... you don't know that poster personally - or do you? The whole 'debate' wrt to relaxation vs warm-up vs neither ...vs [ enter interpretation ] is strikingly sophomoric to begin with, but .... is bordering on creepy internet stalker behavior ... From what I've gathered, this is a relative unknown who has set out to expose another poster as coveting some sort EPS bias. Fine, seems rather benign on the surface ... but that should have been wrapped up inside of (at most...) five heated exchanges followed the typical internet-make-out session. The Meteorologist that the extra-double top secret poster (with an equally extraordinary life, mind us...) holds a grudge against was either a ... an arbitrary target ... or far more likely b ... did something to abash them when they used to engage in the forum under a different pseudonym. (Pseudonym is the same as a pen-name/"internet handle" , for those younger, iconographic non-English communicating e-zombies who have posted resentment for ever having to read more than ten words strung together and can't fit on their slimy pathogenic phone screens... Good sign for the future of our society as we relay the torch, huh? ) One could have said "pattern relaxation" that and put any label on it and/or why ... but because one Met said EPS ... the other user, for whatever reason, has set out on some obsessive crusade to abase that Met. I almost wonder ... if this is just taking the emotional-reliance fixation neurosis to an extreme level.. and said Met is seen as someone that taints the other user's "drug" source. If that's the case... you know, you folks should think outside the box and be careful. What part of the last five to ten users of U.S. culture leads you believe this site is any different. Clearly, there are tendencies (all kidding aside) to be stem-wound obsessed with this agenda. We live in a day and age where an unsavory reality has been exposed: people need shocking uninspired reasons to act badly... Just look up David Katz .. User 24 He was an internet obsessed maladjusted nimrod that fomented paranoia in a gamer-based forum community. You don't know who this person is. I dunno, fwiw - Regardless, November ... it was very highly likely that the pattern was destined to relax closing out the month and going through December ... at some point or the other. Regardless of the source for that expectation.. ..to maintain 7" snow storm chances in between days in the teens (T.G.) beginning from Novie 20 would be excruciatingly rare. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That depends on if any of the n stream gets involved....likely too late for us, regardless....but perhaps not for Eastport, ME. Congrats to the 3 fisherman that live there 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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