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snowlover2

Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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29 minutes ago, Baum said:

Rumour has it 12Z GFS is further south and east with the Sun-Mon threat.

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And much weaker with the 6z / 12z runs

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The 12z cycle has shifted to having more influence of the Lakes low/trough, which is what the 00z Euro was advertising.
GFS for example
gfs_z500_mslp_us_fh84_trend.thumb.gif.08869c3fede5b3375d853be8f28f9cbb.gif
The models also seem to be responding to the strong west based NAO block.

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12z Euro looks to have shifted back north a bit.

Assuming most of the snow misses, I'm becoming more interested locally in a period of strong winds with the long fetch down the lake, especially if the low passes south.  

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Just now, Chinook said:

The latest Euro shows the snow a little bit east of yesterday. It has some 6-10" of snow near Davenport, but none for Chicago

FXo2Tg1.png

That's 00z.  Gotta be really careful with the timestamps on that site as they will give you an old image if the new run is not updated.

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Pretty much everything but the 12z GFS has had decent values of snow at Des Moines. So if you're in Des Moines, maybe get ready for some pre-December shoveling.

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19 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Wow. Major snowstorm for Rockford/DVN and NW

I think I remember hawkeye saying that he's never had a foot of snow.  Wonder what he thinks about that run lol

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9 minutes ago, The_Doctor said:

The snow map kind of looks like December 7-10, 2009.

I have more of a Dec 19-20, 2012 vibe versus a Dec 8-9, 2009. The 2009 cyclone was pretty intense, it got down into the 970s I believe as it moved into Michigan (my avatar). Even the 2012 cyclone was about 984mb near Chicago. Both storms produced widespread blizzard conditions but the 2012 system had a secondary deformation zone that extended down into Western and Central IL that produced blizzard conditions and 60+ mph winds. Based on last night's runs looking at the pressure gradient on the backside of this low, I was concerned somewhat about that scenario. Its too far out to say though I think at this point, even that was a very last minute change (within 8-12 hours we went from advisory to blizzard warning).

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18z GFS similar to the euro although a bit further southeast. Looking like Eastern Iowa on both models is the hot spot for snowfall. Although the GFS is a lot weaker with the system. Only 999mb in Missouri opposed to last nights 988mb run.

Eastern Iowa.png

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2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

18z GFS is quite similar to its 12z counterpart

Same general idea as the Euro, just a bit SE. Riding the line in MBY. Thread worthy event unfolding, who is gonna pop one up? 

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12 minutes ago, ILwxchr said:

18z GFS similar to the euro although a bit further southeast. Looking like Eastern Iowa on both models is the hot spot for snowfall. Although the GFS is a lot weaker with the system. Only 999mb in Missouri opposed to last nights 988mb run.

Eastern Iowa.png

It'll be over SE MI by Saturday.....Snow Magnet Activated! 

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Looks like there could be an overlap area that gets in on 2 November warning criteria snows just a few years apart. The other one being the November 20-21, 2015 storm:

regionalsnow.thumb.png.939961f0876da84495f915788d1e8382.png

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Looks like there could be an overlap area that gets in on 2 November warning criteria snows just a few years apart. The other one being the November 20-21, 2015 storm:
regionalsnow.thumb.png.939961f0876da84495f915788d1e8382.png


I'd be down with another November Death Band.

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3 hours ago, ILwxchr said:

I have more of a Dec 19-20, 2012 vibe versus a Dec 8-9, 2009. The 2009 cyclone was pretty intense, it got down into the 970s I believe as it moved into Michigan (my avatar). Even the 2012 cyclone was about 984mb near Chicago. Both storms produced widespread blizzard conditions but the 2012 system had a secondary deformation zone that extended down into Western and Central IL that produced blizzard conditions and 60+ mph winds. Based on last night's runs looking at the pressure gradient on the backside of this low, I was concerned somewhat about that scenario. Its too far out to say though I think at this point, even that was a very last minute change (within 8-12 hours we went from advisory to blizzard warning).

That Dec 2012 blizzard was awesome.  That's the only time I've ever seen heavy rain change to heavy snow.  Usually the rain will have a tendency to lighten up a bit before it changes over to snow, and then take awhile to transition.  That one went from a heavy driving rain to heavy wet snow in <10 mins.  Even with the wet ground the snow started sticking pretty much instantly.  Only neg about that system was the relatively short duration in all-out blizzard conditions.  Picked up several inches in a short time, but it wound down a little too fast to be a really high-end event.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like there could be an overlap area that gets in on 2 November warning criteria snows just a few years apart. The other one being the November 20-21, 2015 storm:

regionalsnow.thumb.png.939961f0876da84495f915788d1e8382.png

I remember how sharp the cut off was on the east side, rain by the lake but 5 miles inland 5" of snow. This time wouldn't be the same if something like this evolved from this system.

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28 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I remember how sharp the cut off was on the east side, rain by the lake but 5 miles inland 5" of snow. This time wouldn't be the same if something like this evolved from this system.

Yeah, that was the storm that screwed downtown Chicago.  Can't see it on that map but here's a zoomed in map below.  Had some temperature issues around here during the morning of the 21st but then a lake enhanced band came through in the afternoon and it ripped as hard as I had ever seen it snow in November.  Ended up with 6".

chicagoarea.thumb.jpg.cda21943ae5c2772feac9df03c0ca206.jpg

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2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

That Dec 2012 blizzard was awesome.  That's the only time I've ever seen heavy rain change to heavy snow.  Usually the rain will have a tendency to lighten up a bit before it changes over to snow, and then take awhile to transition.  That one went from a heavy driving rain to heavy wet snow in <10 mins.  Even with the wet ground the snow started sticking pretty much instantly.  Only neg about that system was the relatively short duration in all-out blizzard conditions.  Picked up several inches in a short time, but it wound down a little too fast to be a really high-end event.

That really was an awesome blizzard. we got the max snowfall from that storm right here at about 20". I remember how big some of those snow piles were after the storm. It was one of the few storms that made me lose power. That doesn't happen very often around here. I also remember the winds the day after that blizzard hit. Climbing around snow piles with a blue sky and frigid winds felt downright arctic.

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22 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like there could be an overlap area that gets in on 2 November warning criteria snows just a few years apart. The other one being the November 20-21, 2015 storm:

regionalsnow.thumb.png.939961f0876da84495f915788d1e8382.png

Best storm ever.

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4 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

Not sure what all the hype is on long range. Per 12z GFS it looks like poo. 

Big time poo.

Hoping this upcoming storm hits north for a quick ride during the day time hours.... then it could be weeks.

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Big time poo.
Hoping this upcoming storm hits north for a quick ride during the day time hours.... then it could be weeks.
This time a week ago not many would have seen the potential storm that is possible at the end of the weekend in the midwest. Things can flip in a hurry. And the general trend has been cold and stormy to start the season.

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1 hour ago, Baum said:

@judah47: Latest #PolarVortex (PV) forecast animation shows largest PV disruption of the still young 2018/19 season. This will likely keep #winter weather rocking and rolling for the month of December. https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1065986594333777920/photo/1

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It’ll be interesting to see how it all plays out. I’m not as optimistic as I was about 5 days ago. 

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yea, the pattern for December looks very meh.... Not a torch, but not a deep trough either. Hopefully we didn't blow our load on November.

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