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snowlover2

Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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This is our usual thread for storm threats in the longer range that are not ready for its own thread.

There appears to be a system for next Monday/Tuesday that will move along the south and then up the apps/east coast. 12z Euro has precip the farthest north/west to bring some snow to IN/OH.

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40 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

This is our usual thread for storm threats in the longer range that are not ready for its own thread.

There appears to be a system for next Monday/Tuesday that will move along the south and then up the apps/east coast. 12z Euro has precip the farthest north/west to bring some snow to IN/OH.

I hear you and raise you this hilarious CMC output from last night:

gem_asnow_us_40.png

Obviously this was just some laughable model fluff (if only it weren't), but simply out of curiosity, has such a widespread event ever occurred in the history of this country?  

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46 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

This is our usual thread for storm threats in the longer range that are not ready for its own thread.

There appears to be a system for next Monday/Tuesday that will move along the south and then up the apps/east coast. 12z Euro has precip the farthest north/west to bring some snow to IN/OH.

The ICON agrees, though it takes the system further west

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_54.png

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3 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

I hear you and raise you this hilarious CMC output from last night:

gem_asnow_us_40.png

Obviously this was just some laughable model fluff (if only it weren't), but simply out of curiosity, has such a widespread event ever occurred in the history of this country?  

Don't have a precip map handy, but I'm almost certain GHD1 covered even more (in the CONUS vs Canada I mean).

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21 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

And most of S Michigan went to Bliz warned after this.

GHD-warnings.png

Absolute U N I T  of a storm. It's strange to imagine that the locally crazy snow totals may not have even been the most impressive thing about GHD I.

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23 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

I hear you and raise you this hilarious CMC output from last night:

gem_asnow_us_40.png

Obviously this was just some laughable model fluff (if only it weren't), but simply out of curiosity, has such a widespread event ever occurred in the history of this country?  

I remember quite a few storms that covered a ton of ground. Not those ridiculous totals, but good storms.

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1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

I remember quite a few storms that covered a ton of ground. Not those ridiculous totals, but good storms.

Huh. Yeah, if you discount those 24+ inch values, the would-be storm becomes a lot more believable. 

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WOW. Over the last few days the CFS, by far the warmest seasonal model and one with a warm bias, has almost completely ditched its warm rest of November and December idea. I have never seen it change so suddenly and drastically. 

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Just now, michsnowfreak said:

WOW. Over the last few days the CFS, by far the warmest seasonal model and one with a warm bias, has almost completely ditched its warm rest of November and December idea. I have never seen it change so suddenly and drastically. 

It defaults to warm. 

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The Euro has been advertising a fairly potent system around the 26th for a few runs now.  A long ways out but something to watch.  There is a lead system on the 24th that could play havoc with how the main system evolves.  May cause the models fits since the two waves are close enough that their interaction could muddle things.  The wave around the 26th looks like it could be quite potent if everything times out just right.

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I was watching this on last night's 00z run. Hopefully it doesn't pass us as a weak shortwave and then phase into another east coast bomb.:huh:

5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

The Euro has been advertising a fairly potent system around the 26th for a few runs now.  A long ways out but something to watch.  There is a lead system on the 24th that could play havoc with how the main system evolves.  May cause the models fits since the two waves are close enough that their interaction could muddle things.  The wave around the 26th looks like it could be quite potent if everything times out just right. 

.

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

The Euro has been advertising a fairly potent system around the 26th for a few runs now.  A long ways out but something to watch.  There is a lead system on the 24th that could play havoc with how the main system evolves.  May cause the models fits since the two waves are close enough that their interaction could muddle things.  The wave around the 26th looks like it could be quite potent if everything times out just right.

12z Euro has a nice storm on the 26th-28th.

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2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The Euro has been advertising a fairly potent system around the 26th for a few runs now.  A long ways out but something to watch.  There is a lead system on the 24th that could play havoc with how the main system evolves.  May cause the models fits since the two waves are close enough that their interaction could muddle things.  The wave around the 26th looks like it could be quite potent if everything times out just right.

 

41 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

12z Euro has a nice storm on the 26th-28th.

Maybe the models are beginning to sniff out a big dog around the end of the month when the pattern flips to full-fledged winter as guidance is depicts the ice box opening up.

WK34temp.gif

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12z Euro showing a 996mb low developing in the Southern Plains and moving from Southeast Missouri into Michigan on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Could be interesting to watch. GFS has a much weaker version of this.

Euro Nov 26.png

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Granted it's fantasy range and the setup could change but one thing I noticed on that run is how the system basically hits a brick wall and sits in the Lakes.

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starting to wonder if calls of an above average December, (temp-wise), 

....are gonna be in trouble. :yikes:  

Mild signals keep falling apart as we progress into late November with no long term signs of any moderation setting in.  An early winter was not in the cards for a lot of the forecasts I've read.    The fasten seat belt lights and the oxygen masks just dropped on LC flight 2018-19 

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10 minutes ago, buckeye said:

starting to wonder if calls of an above average December, (temp-wise), 

....are gonna be in trouble. :yikes:  

Mild signals keep falling apart as we progress into late November with no long term signs of any moderation setting in.  An early winter was not in the cards for a lot of the forecasts I've read.    The fasten seat belt lights and the oxygen masks just dropped on LC flight 2018-19 

In Nino years, December is the month that has the highest chance of being problematic.  There have been good Decembers in Ninos though.  So if this December ends up cold/snowy (talking more regionwide and not some narrow area that gets a good storm) then I'd say buckle up.

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I wouldn't get too hyped up by the models. They need to change how they bring that pacific trough off the coast and if it is amped up, it won't be a midwest/eastern event, more likely a plains/eastern Rockies event. I could also see it end up being weaker and more sheared out with recycled cold air sources only left. The "occluding core" passes then another warmup occurs as the upstream changes would be noticeable in fantasy range.

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I don't know what kind of data NCEP is feeding the GFS, but they are flopping big time. Way too large of block develops over the Hudson bay and energy moves off the pacific in such a crazy way, the foreign models are laughing hysterically behind its back. November is typically the GFS's worst performing month with good improvement by mid-December.

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