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the ghost of leroy

Hurricane Flo Banter Thread-no fun allowed, no saying the storm isn’t that bad plz

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2018-09-11_124835.JPG&key=58caf1d3faf79eb85a43741dfd52719b8e912423c4eb486e8724d82487dad598

Maybe I'm forgetting but I don't recall seeing a storm with that satellite presentation before.  What's the deal with the fingers of cooler cloud tops oriented straight out from the center?

 

It's due to strong divergence aloft. You have strong upper level airflow jets away from the convection that stretches the high cirrus clouds. It creates finger-like linear striations / furrows in the cloud canopy's appearance. Essentially, the CDO is being stretched and it's also a sign of strong outflow channeling establishing.

 

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Anyone wishcasting this hurricane to their backyard is out of their damn mind. Hopelessly batsh** crazy. That's all I got. One of the rare instances where I would rather observe from a distance.

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Just now, Vice-Regent said:

Anyone wishcasting this hurricane to their backyard is out of their damn mind. Hopelessly batsh** crazy. That's all I got. One of the rare instances where I would rather observe from a distance.

Indeed.  I, for one, do am not wanting to be without power for weeks at the end of Virginia summer.:yikes:

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Many of those in the Lumber River / Lumberton NC area still have not fully recovered from Hurricane Matthew less than two years ago. If the models predicting Florence inland 'stall' over southeast NC prove true, that is a cruel fate for those poor people. This time there will be better preparedness, but  so unfortunate to lose again what they have managed to rebuild  

 

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12z Euro is...interesting. If it holds on to that solution and it verifies, I'll be willing to hail King Euro forever and ever. But I'm skeptical.

Edit: For discussion's sake I'll say that the 12z Euro is showing Flo stalling out just off Wilmington for ~3 days then scooting south and making landfall in Charleston.

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The Euro run would be terrifying for people who decide to stay in Wilmington. Hours upon hours of the eyewall wobbling towards or away from the city, eventually making it onshore. Wilmington gets about 48 hours of hurricane strength gusts. Not to mention the surge and over two feet of rain.

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sup...i'm unbanned.  glad the mods saw the light and went SEP and it was fun watching you all trash njwx85, mr "this is definitely hitting as a cat 4"

anyone else think icyclone should have chased mangkut? it's looking like irma for sure

avn0-lalo.gif

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38 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

sup...i'm unbanned.  glad the mods saw the light and went SEP and it was fun watching you all trash njwx85, mr "this is definitely hitting as a cat 4"

anyone else think icyclone should have chased mangkut? it's looking like irma for sure

avn0-lalo.gif

figured there was a reason behind you being so quiet.

at least he's chasing one of the two.

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11 minutes ago, jburns said:

I do sales for a large international hotel brand and I have been working with Duke Energy here in Wilmington since last Thursday to find housing for around 500 rooms starting tomorrow for 10 days.  Most hotels in the area have several disaster relief groups already in house or checking in tomorrow. 

It looks like it’s going to be ugly here but it appears as though appropriate steps are being made in preparation. 

 

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1 minute ago, Jakkel138 said:

The impacts given model consensus south of the OBX mean hardly anything interesting up here in Goldsboro MD. 

take in some people fleeing the storm and play drunk twister with them.  very interesting.

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sup...i'm unbanned.  glad the mods saw the light and went SEP and it was fun watching you all trash njwx85, mr "this is definitely hitting as a cat 4" anyone else think icyclone should have chased mangkut? it's looking like irma for sureavn0-lalo.gif&key=62bac3119fe4455c9e482f6b82daab97e87a1b8c3c156eec2afd610509b30b50

Exposure. Exposure. Exposure. Western media and the threat is great in a highly publicized event. The possibility of a stall on the coastline could also make for a long-duration event. Something Josh has not had a lot of dealings with versus short intense landfalls. Also he already explained his reasoning in potential difficulties in chasing and penetrating Mangkhut in the Luzon Strait as well. I think he made a good call.

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7 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Stacy Stewart is the master of meteorological discussion of TCs and synoptic reasoning. That is all.

I am more an Avila guy myself.  Stewart is a fun read but so bullish at times. He is to the NHC what Broyles is to the SPC.

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10 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

this is kinda cringe, IMO

 

comparing anything to ohio is p bad.

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7 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

I’m gonna start calling it THE Hurricane  Florence

could have something in common...failure.

especially when it landfalls as a cat 1 in sc after meandering offshore for days.

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On the happy hour, drunk gfs. Looks like remnants of Florence loop around through the mid Atlantic and reform another TC that looks like it may turn back for another shot at the southeast coast.

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3 hours ago, the ghost of leroy said:

sup...i'm unbanned.  glad the mods saw the light and went SEP and it was fun watching you all trash njwx85, mr "this is definitely hitting as a cat 4"

anyone else think icyclone should have chased mangkut? it's looking like irma for sure

avn0-lalo.gif

It’s really too bad we do not have recon in the West pac anymore. Mangkut is probably something ridiculous like 910 170mph. The 80 degree therm is extremely deep in that part of the pacific. Imagine having the waters of the SW Caribbean continue for another 1000 miles. That’s how you end up with the strongest tropical cyclones on earth  

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