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NCSNOW

Hurricane Florence

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Thru hr54, Euro is virtually identical to the last run....brings it into Onslow Bay right close to the coast, then moves it west into the Wilmington area.  I would expect the surge to be really bad there in Topsail to Emerald Isle given the storm size now 

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Observation, just came off the Beach, (Carolina Beach),, High tide @ 11:45 pm,,  Strong steady ESE~SE Winds  STEADY @ 20mph.. 

Beach is already beginning to experience some , (Higher than Normal High tide, pushed by Winds) overwash

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

By hr72, it has dropped due south out over the open water, then into a position just NE of Charleston, right along the coast

The surge is going to be held in place by relentless onshore winds for days it seems in certain places.

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2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

euro and gfs not far off, euro just a bit more offshore but both take very similar paths.  

Yes, maybe 50 mile difference.  Remarkable agreement for a 3-4 day forecast.  I've decided to evacuate after holding out this long.

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Just now, yotaman said:

Well crap, just got word my Generator will not arrive today as expected. They say tomorrow or Friday but I seriously doubt it.:thumbsdown:

Mine too. Says Friday. I don't believe it. lol.

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I'm in Jacksonville and because of the latest slight shift in the track south everyone is saying its not going to hit here and be bad; man are they in for a rude awakening with the flooding. Looking at the visible satellite this is amazing to look out, outflow clouds are now penetrating the coast. Keeping everything charged so I can provide you all some videos :)

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On the last recon pass they measured category 2 surface winds 50 miles north from the center. I think pretty much every model has the storm getting that close or closer to Jacksonville at some point.

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Even with this southern track, the euro has gusts in southern wake up close to 60mph. Will be interesting if it's too far south by say 25 or 50 miles. Will make a huge difference for the triangle with regards to gusts (example 60mph vs 80mph).

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6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Even with this southern track, the euro has gusts in southern wake up close to 60mph. Will be interesting if it's too far south by say 25 or 50 miles. Will make a huge difference for the triangle with regards to gusts (example 60mph vs 80mph).

That's well within the margin of error, IMO.

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Q: how is it weaking when its dealing with almost perfect conditions? Or is a situation it's due to the large eye the wind is less concentrated?

Pulling in dry air.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
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21 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Even with this southern track, the euro has gusts in southern wake up close to 60mph. Will be interesting if it's too far south by say 25 or 50 miles. Will make a huge difference for the triangle with regards to gusts (example 60mph vs 80mph).

Nightmare scenario for forecasting . Like you said a shift of 25 to 50 miles north will change the wind forecast for everyone in the central coastal plains to the piedmont.

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Euro Ensemble Mean is much like its last run.  Storm moves into Wilmington area, then moves SW, where the mean is actually just off the SC coast (same as last run).  This run is slower with the progression SW thru the SC coast...so, an increasing heavy rainfall threat in eastern / NE South Carolina.

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