July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

[Damage In Tolland]

August looks like it’s setting up for a hot one . Once WAR’s build in like this, they love to stay for long, extended visits .

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

August looks like it’s setting up for a hot one . Once WAR’s build in like this, they love to stay for long, extended visits .

Hopefully it’ll last right through winter. 

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully it’ll last right through winter. 

It may if NAO is east based 

[weathafella]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It may if NAO is east based 

You got your indices mixed up...lol.

[TheBudMan]

Certainly were two tornadoes last night in Worcester County. The first one touched down near East Douglas/Whitinsville with a TDS and then the second was near Upton - also with a TDS. 

Props to @TollabdKev for predicting nocturnal spinups ?

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, weathafella said:

WAR tries to marry Madam Sonora?

Heh... who ever wins the "WAR" gets the gal, Madam Sonora ...

I'm not sure or not if Sonoran air layers really get caught up in that circulation ... this time.  Not without some sort of discrete analytic, secondary products, to which I don't have ...because I will not pay for this crap. Anyway, as is, it's not, and it's not hard to see why. 

There's been a kind of semi-permanent weakness in the geopotential medium centered...oh, 100 to 90 W ...  When not reinforced with actual trough residue from Canada, it's a shear axis ... Either way, what it's doing is effectively shunting Sonoran/SW ejected air on a parabolic motion down over Texas ... This entire circumstance kicked in since ...really the heat wave broke back in early July. 

One way to "fill" that mid nation "dent" in the circulation et al...is really just the surrounding medium promoting more ridging there ... But, if/when WAR is already in a west/robust positive anomaly to begin with...  that can in turn look as though the WAR is retrograding to become one in the same ... sort of hiding the history.  There other way, heights rise in the midriff, then roll-out to the E without as much WAR antecedent circumstance (which was more like what took place back in late June). 

So yes...the two sources can be mutually exclusive, ..and perhaps in some scenarios they can merge (if you will...) like you joked.  I guess time will tell if this is one of those situations.  I will add that the Euro does have a the dragon's tongue up to N of Lake Superior D 8 or so...which is in fact situated precariously so... we'll see.    

 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hot trend in the late mid range and extended Euro continues.

Across the board, however, the individual global numerical models appear greater than the 80th percentile in agreement when just eye-balling these synoptic evolutions.  'Talking D 5.5 through D 10...  with a (Euro) acme around D 8 and 9.   

The teleconnectors even support an eastern N/A above normal geopotential medium, ...despite the general loss of reliance from those statistics that is endemic to the summer season.  Despite, having that collocated in space and time with these operational signals should lend at least some confidence - 

The Euro is actually warmest on this 00z cycle than it has been leading this signal.. It's got pervasive +19C at 850 throughout the larger domain space of the OV/NE regions ... MA, under the NW rim of an exotic WAR ... one that is frankly situated perhaps more climate classic for transporting heat to the upper MA/NE regions, comparing either this recent Bahama transport pattern, or the heat wave back in late June.

This is a notable ridge depth (in terms of heights..), exceeding 594 dm. There have also been occasional nodes exceeding 600 dm every other run or so, embedded inside.  

These are extraordinary heights.  I cannot stress enough that this is rare that this is happening at all ... let alone, so commonly this summer.  > 594 dm was usually not 'modeled' per se, but is/was circumstantially observed in sounding launches and so forth, during heat waves in the Midwest and so forth.. I am not sure if this is some sort of improvement and/or change in general, in the models handling of dynamics, but.. even that Frankenmodel I call the "GONAPS" (GGEM + NOGAPS), has been habitually putting out modeled depictions with stratospheric tickling dome tops like this. 

I've been in this game for 25 years or so... If this is really just the natural state of affairs and the models are merely more sensitive now...thus are seeing it, so be it.  But I wonder, if not 'suspect' that we may be crossing over a threshold at the warm end of the atmospheric spectrum...where these sorts of altitudes are becoming/become the new standard.  I have read climate papers that have empirically shown that the mean global height is in fact 20 dm higher than it was at the turn of the 19th Century...

I think it carries some modest import in terms of interpretive...  I've been perplexed at times, at the surface temperatures over N/A being high ...but falling short relative to what could take place. It's almost as though 30 years ago... 588 dm took place at similar frequencies as the present 594+ ...  And, crucially .. there appears to be unusual 'gaps' between the thicknesses, versus the heights...  I mean, 594 heights, with 570 thickness... you could fit a cyclone inside that ... The difference between those two measure is that one is the outright altitude at a pressure level; the thickness is a the distance between two pressure levels ...They sound similar and in fact, are.. but, the virtual temperature term is included in the latter. So the clue is obviously right there... the moisture handling.  interesting.

 

I think there is little evidence to support  the climate has not warmed since the turn of the 19th century. I do think the current warm/hot pattern lasts well into the fall.

[JustinRP37]

29 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I think there is little evidence to support  the climate has not warmed since the turn of the 19th century. I do think the current warm/hot pattern lasts well into the fall.

As a vector-borne disease scientist it is shocking to see how vectors and diseases are changing/moving as the climate is warming. The best example I give is my main study organism, the blacklegged tick (aka the deer tick). We have been monitoring its northward progression for awhile now, and it is truly is amazing to see. This tick seems to really be affected by winter weather. It does not do well with brutally cold and dry winters. On the flip side, it also does not do well with warm winters. While I have always been into the weather, studying climate really became a focus during the second year of my PhD program when we first noticed that patterns of activity had changed from our historical averages.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Hopefully the daily rainfall comes to an end. I'd take a few days of sunshine.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I think there is little evidence to support  the climate has not warmed since the turn of the 19th century. I do think the current warm/hot pattern lasts well into the fall.

I hope not  ... seriously, my dream autumn and winter combo was "almost" achieved in 1995 -  

In fact, it scores an A- in achieving my coveted desire for the winter as a whole... It was in the 90th percentile of my person druthers.  But the autumn was a 100!  

Others may recall that transition that faithful year differently.  I was up at UML ...engaging in Softmoritus, that dreary realization year that exists after the ecstatic expectation of collegiate freedom escapes one's bubble, leaving a realism of ... call it something less than academic acumen to fill the void.   

Plus, UML had a kind of stodgy odd-ball vibe about the environment ... North campus students tended to be industrial larva with all the social graces of book worms.  Vestigially... you could tell that the school's heritage was steeped in that sort, as its primary mass matriculate, and well... students eventually do influence the culture of the campus and there we were.   Yeahhhaa a oohh ah... oh k, is this it?  It was as about as romantic a pocket pen-protector.  If it wasn't these sorts in the dormitories, it was 24 -year old commuters students that tended to be closed off and overly serious for having learned the hard way about life after high-school and gee, 'I guess I can't smoke pot and paint houses for a living, and still star in the societal movie.'   

Of course... that was North Campus... South Campus on the other hand was where the Music college, Humanities and Nursing and pre-med schools took place.  So there were some of the more romanticized affairs, too.

But I digress...  What I remember about that fall was that in mid October, we started getting a lot of calm radiationally chilled mornings.  Really cold at times..  Like mid 20s... with amber vegetation often audible flitting to impact the ground strewn with fresh leaf falls, subtly aglow with white frost.  The afternoons would make 44 ... ish.  And smelled of dry leaf debris mixed with that purity you only get from Canada.   The North -facing wall of the Pawtucket spillway started presenting ice falls as the trickling water that normally permeated the granite blocks had begun to freeze by night; some of which even remained, I remember, the following afternoons ... around or after the 20th of the month.  This behavior continued into early November, with perhaps a single warm up in there that was not impressive.   

Around the 9th (guessing at a date..) we had 3-5 inch sleety snow deal ...  We never saw bare ground again until the epic thaws of late January, 1996.  It was a nickle and dime sleet to snow, and eventually ...only snow events, from the second week of November right through the Holidays... At one point just after xmass, I measured 32" on the level at my parent's front lawn in Acton... I was f'n amazed that much snow could just be!   Resting, waiting for the next dose like that. 

Hard and fast, cold and decisive.  That's the stuff...  The only reason that year did not score the elusive A+ ?  It started snowing again March...  I feel about spring and summer the way I do about autumn and winter... I want them early, and heavy and ...basically, totally unrealistic as an expectation hahaha   

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, CT Rain said:

Looks like it would have been in a really rural area near Rt 16 and 146. 

Ryan really is the best at analyzing radar data, lucky to have him. I don't think BOX was looking at Douglas until Ryan pointed it out

https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1022493399134429184

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I hope not  ... seriously, my dream autumn and winter combo was "almost" achieved in 1995 -  

In fact, it scores an A- in achieving my coveted desire for the winter as a whole... It was in the 90th percentile of my person druthers.  But the autumn was a 100!  

Others may recall that transition that faithful year differently.  I was up at UML ...engaging in Softmoritus, that dreary realization year that exists after the ecstatic expectation of collegiate freedom escapes one's bubble, leaving a realism of ... call it something less than academic acumen to fill the void.   

Plus, UML had a kind of stodgy odd-ball vibe about the environment ... North campus students tended to be industrial larva with the social graces of book worms.  Vestigially... you could tell that the school's heritage was steeped in that sort, as its primary mass matriculate, and well... students eventually do influence the culture of the campus and there we were.   Yeahhhaa a oohh ah... oh k, is this it?  It was as about as romantic a pocket pen-protector. 

Of course... that was North Campus... South Campus on the other hand was where the Music college, Humanities and Nursing and pre-med schools.  So there was a some of the more romanticized affairs, too.

But I digress...  What I remember about that fall was that in mid October, we started getting a lot of calm radiationally chilled mornings.  Really cold at times..  Like mid 20s... with amber vegetation often audible flitting to impact the ground strewn with fresh leaf falls, subtly aglow with white frost.  The afternoons would make 44 ... ish.  And smelled of dry leaf debris mixed with that purity you only get from Canada.   The North -facing wall of the Pawtucket spillway started presenting ice falls as the trickling water that normally permeated the granite blocks had begun to freeze by night; some of which even remained, I remember, the following afternoons ... around or after the 20th of the month.  This behavior continued into early November, with perhaps a single warm up in there that was not impressive.   

Around the 9th (guessing at a date..) we had 3-5 inch sleety snow deal ...  We never saw bare ground again until the epic thaws of late January, 1996.  It was a nickle and dime sleet to snow, and eventually ...only snow events, from the second week of November right through the Holidays... At one point just after xmass, I measured 32" on the level at my parent's front lawn in Acton... I was f'n amazed that much snow could just be!   Resting, waiting for the next dose like that. 

Hard and fast, cold and decisive.  That's the stuff...  The only reason that year did not score the elusive A+ ?  It started snowing again March...  I feel about spring and summer the way I do about autumn and winter... I want them early, and heavy and ...basically, totally unrealistic as an expectation hahaha   

You forgot how it neared 70 a few days after Thanksgiving followed quickly by a nice 3-6 dump.  A true off to the races once it started winter until the huge thaws mid season.

[Ginx snewx]

4 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Geez.  Only 0.21" over 9 days for me.

 

[Ginx snewx]

Winter lovers move away from the city if you can.

http://www.weathernationtv.com/news/look-effects-urban-heat-islands-cold-weather/

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Winter lovers move away from the city if you can.

http://www.weathernationtv.com/news/look-effects-urban-heat-islands-cold-weather/

Isn't this old news?

[Hoth]

21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Death Valley screwjie. I'm having flashbacks to March.

[Typhoon Tip]

47 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You forgot how it neared 70 a few days after Thanksgiving followed quickly by a nice 3-6 dump.  A true off to the races once it started winter until the huge thaws mid season.

yeah i mentioned the/a warm up of some kind in there.  my time tables were probably a bit off...  But I do recall a bit of bounce back at one point. the other thing, i really don't think any warm up, regardless of when, was enough to bare the ground  - ..  specifically, i recall that once it snowed that one time, we did not see bare ground until the mega thaw.  Also, keep in mind i'm talking about Merrimack Valley region of far N/NE Mass... I'm not sure what it was like down around the urban or quasi urban environs of Boston or the immediate western 'burbs...

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I hope not  ... seriously, my dream autumn and winter combo was "almost" achieved in 1995 -  

In fact, it scores an A- in achieving my coveted desire for the winter as a whole... It was in the 90th percentile of my person druthers.  But the autumn was a 100!  

Others may recall that transition that faithful year differently.  I was up at UML ...engaging in Softmoritus, that dreary realization year that exists after the ecstatic expectation of collegiate freedom escapes one's bubble, leaving a realism of ... call it something less than academic acumen to fill the void.   

Plus, UML had a kind of stodgy odd-ball vibe about the environment ... North campus students tended to be industrial larva with all the social graces of book worms.  Vestigially... you could tell that the school's heritage was steeped in that sort, as its primary mass matriculate, and well... students eventually do influence the culture of the campus and there we were.   Yeahhhaa a oohh ah... oh k, is this it?  It was as about as romantic a pocket pen-protector.  If it wasn't these sorts in the dormitories, it was 24 -year old commuters students that tended to be closed off and overly serious for having learned the hard way about life after high-school and gee, 'I guess I can't smoke pot and paint houses for a living, and still star in the societal movie.'   

Of course... that was North Campus... South Campus on the other hand was where the Music college, Humanities and Nursing and pre-med schools took place.  So there were some of the more romanticized affairs, too.

But I digress...  What I remember about that fall was that in mid October, we started getting a lot of calm radiationally chilled mornings.  Really cold at times..  Like mid 20s... with amber vegetation often audible flitting to impact the ground strewn with fresh leaf falls, subtly aglow with white frost.  The afternoons would make 44 ... ish.  And smelled of dry leaf debris mixed with that purity you only get from Canada.   The North -facing wall of the Pawtucket spillway started presenting ice falls as the trickling water that normally permeated the granite blocks had begun to freeze by night; some of which even remained, I remember, the following afternoons ... around or after the 20th of the month.  This behavior continued into early November, with perhaps a single warm up in there that was not impressive.   

Around the 9th (guessing at a date..) we had 3-5 inch sleety snow deal ...  We never saw bare ground again until the epic thaws of late January, 1996.  It was a nickle and dime sleet to snow, and eventually ...only snow events, from the second week of November right through the Holidays... At one point just after xmass, I measured 32" on the level at my parent's front lawn in Acton... I was f'n amazed that much snow could just be!   Resting, waiting for the next dose like that. 

Hard and fast, cold and decisive.  That's the stuff...  The only reason that year did not score the elusive A+ ?  It started snowing again March...  I feel about spring and summer the way I do about autumn and winter... I want them early, and heavy and ...basically, totally unrealistic as an expectation hahaha   

I hope not also, but I'm basing  my opinion on how persistent the warmth/heat has been in the northern hemisphere. And much of the heat has been on the record breaking side of things. At the very least I think the overall pattern lasts into at least September. 

I have 95-96 as my #1 ranked fall/winter combo because the amount of snow and the winter weather lasting into mid April. 76-77 is 2nd on my favorite fall/winter combo list.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

As a vector-borne disease scientist it is shocking to see how vectors and diseases are changing/moving as the climate is warming. The best example I give is my main study organism, the blacklegged tick (aka the deer tick). We have been monitoring its northward progression for awhile now, and it is truly is amazing to see. This tick seems to really be affected by winter weather. It does not do well with brutally cold and dry winters. On the flip side, it also does not do well with warm winters. While I have always been into the weather, studying climate really became a focus during the second year of my PhD program when we first noticed that patterns of activity had changed from our historical averages.

I wonder if the little terrors are adapting.  There was only modest snow depth when the brutal cold arrived just prior to New Year's, and the frigid mornings weren't helped by near (sometimes below) zero maxima, for nearly 2 weeks - not much insulation for small rodents and their passengers.  Yet this spring-summer has seen ticks, both deer and dog, in huge numbers on the southern Maine woodlots we manage, and there's been quite a few (mostly deer) at my foothills locale.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

[weathafella]

D6-16....a torrid GFS run.

[tamarack]

16 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I have 95-96 as my #1 ranked fall/winter combo because the amount of snow and the winter weather lasting into mid April. 76-77 is 2nd on my favorite fall/winter combo list.

Maybe it's my high rating of snowpack that downgrades 95-96 for me, though getting missed/grazed by some of the bigger events also plays a part.  That season whipsawed between early month greatness ("early" ranging from 11 to 21 days) followed by late month meh (Dec) or blechh! (JFMA) 
Without including my Ft. Kent experience (that would be cheating), 95-96 might not make my top-10 winters since I moved to Maine 45 years ago.  86-87, 92-93, 93-94, and probably 89-90 all rank higher in my 13 Gardiner winters, while 00-01, 04-05, 07-08, 08-09, 13-14, and 16-17 all come in ahead for my current BY.  (14-15 would too, but for the frustration of so many awful whiffs while missing out on the one really major event at my place.  The half winter of 06-07 is also a contender.)

[JustinRP37]

20 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I wonder if the little terrors are adapting.  There was only modest snow depth when the brutal cold arrived just prior to New Year's, and the frigid mornings weren't helped by near (sometimes below) zero maxima, for nearly 2 weeks - not much insulation for small rodents and their passengers.  Yet this spring-summer has seen ticks, both deer and dog, in huge numbers on the southern Maine woodlots we manage, and there's been quite a few (mostly deer) at my foothills locale.

It looks like all you need is really an inch or more of snow and they can do fine with the cold. When there is no snow and you get the brutally cold temps, we do have some data that shows they do not survive well. For whatever reason, the snow cover really helps them go into diapause (their form of hibernation), which helps them retain their lipid level for metabolizing during the true active season. This year, at least in southern NY and New England, we saw below average amounts of the blacklegged tick, but from what I have heard, the north country had higher numbers. The adult stage ticks though are not as affected it seems by winter weather. They will be active anytime the mean temperature is above 40 degrees for a few days. We actually had some adult tick bite cases in late January and February when we had those warm temperatures (which likely hurt the nymphal population). And now the region also has to contend with a new tick on the scene: https://www.health.ny.gov/press/releases/2018/2018-07-17_precaution_against_ticks.htm, the Asian longhorned tick, of particular interest to livestock, pets, and hunters. 

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ryan really is the best at analyzing radar data, lucky to have him. I don't think BOX was looking at Douglas until Ryan pointed it out

https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1022493399134429184

No doubt Ryan knows his stuff, but BOX really should have been looking at Douglas. It was a pretty clear TDS. 

[tamarack]

6 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

It looks like all you need is really an inch or more of snow and they can do fine with the cold. When there is no snow and you get the brutally cold temps, we do have some data that shows they do not survive well. For whatever reason, the snow cover really helps them go into diapause (their form of hibernation), which helps them retain their lipid level for metabolizing during the true active season. This year, at least in southern NY and New England, we saw below average amounts of the blacklegged tick, but from what I have heard, the north country had higher numbers. The adult stage ticks though are not as affected it seems by winter weather. They will be active anytime the mean temperature is above 40 degrees for a few days. We actually had some adult tick bite cases in late January and February when we had those warm temperatures (which likely hurt the nymphal population). And now the region also has to contend with a new tick on the scene: https://www.health.ny.gov/press/releases/2018/2018-07-17_precaution_against_ticks.htm, the Asian longhorned tick, of particular interest to livestock, pets, and hunters. 

Thanks for the additional info, especially the inch-or-more factoid.  As for the 40° activity threshold, that may be selling them short.  It's been a couple years since I brought home deer ticks after hunting for deer in November, but some of those "infestable" days never reached 40.  of course, I sit on logs rather than in a tree, so maybe my butt warmed the microclimate sufficient to wake them up. 

[CT Rain]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

No doubt Ryan knows his stuff, but BOX really should have been looking at Douglas. It was a pretty clear TDS. 

I think they were all along. They were waiting on locations from MEMA to specifically investigate. 

[Typhoon Tip]

As climate changes... there is far more than a single species that scurries from the breakdown of their native ecological systems ... - not just Humans. 

There's on going spirited debate in both scientific circles, as well as those seeking to use it as leverage for political gain (which only makes the truth of it ever more obfuscated...) that the Syrian crisis is in part climate change attributed. The gist of which is, the majority % of their economics is/was agrarian -based, and as such... the last ten years of drought has taken a particular tax on the stability in that part of the world.  It has affected, and ultimately ...effected change there... etc ...etc.. 

Whatever the cause in human parlance for the mass migration out of Syria ... reviewed biological science/ecologist across the board agree that species migration is a real problem related to climate change.

There are plenty of peer-reviewed/refereed sciences out there about that subject matter, among which ... the legit concerns surrounding pathogens hitching a ride along with relocating flora and fauna. These can be particularly virulent in the new settings, because the target regions may not and most likely do not have evolutionary built in 'checks and balances' ... including, native immunology. They can be naked with nothing in place to counterbalance the invasion.   

This whole climate change thing...it's a black box threat... a big black Pandora's boxed threat    As it is cleaved open by the abstinent disregard of the on-going dominant, entitled species of Terra forming azzholes on this planet ... out will crawl far worse than hot summers and violent storms... 

How about a cocktail-holocaust ... 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, CT Rain said:

I think they were all along. They were waiting on locations from MEMA to specifically investigate. 

Makes sense. But in my impatience I would’ve already tabbed a crew to head to Douglas.

TDSs are just as good as a damage report to me.

[CT Rain]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Makes sense. But in my impatience I would’ve already tabbed a crew to head to Douglas.

TDSs are just as good as a damage report to me.

Probably better than some damage reports. 

Seems pretty clear there were 2 distinct touchdowns. I bet the Douglas>Uxbridge spinner was the stronger of the two.

This was almost creepy similar to the overnight Concord tornado too.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Probably better than some damage reports. 

Seems pretty clear there were 2 distinct touchdowns. I bet the Douglas>Uxbridge spinner was the stronger of the two.

This was almost creepy similar to the overnight Concord tornado too.

We were all excited for it to continue into NH, but it just fell apart in Middlesex.