Spring Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

[tamarack]

13 hours ago, rimetree said:

Wow, this would be fun. Probably the last time PSM was a jackpot location.

What was their total for that blizzard?  CAR had 26.3", at the time their biggest on record - think it's been pushed back to 4th since that time.

[CT Rain]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The immediate coast in SW CT averages less than 30"....BDR does, though admittedly not by much...their long term average since 1950 is 29.5. You prob dont have to go that far inland to get above 30, but the immediate coast there is a pretty bad spot. Their 30 year average will def go up though. Their 1971-2000 mean is something like 24 inches but goes up to 27 inches for 1981-2010.

It has always been my opinion though that 30 years is too short for snowfall as it doesn't allow for the full decadal cycles of the AO/PDO complete. So you catch a cruddy period or a good period and it can be vastly different. The 1971-2000 normals were some of the worst for a lot of the Northeast from NYC northeastward. It's why I like to capture at least 50-60 years in the record, but no method is going to be perfect.

Yeah BDR was a pit. I bet their new coop location is going to be low/mid 30s like HVN's long term average way. 

Any place is better than GON. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah BDR was a put. I bet their new coop location is going to be low/mid 30s like HVN's long term average way. 

Any place is better than GON. 

Even the old HVN FAA observations only had 30 years from like '47-'77...so who knows what their number would be if we could go all the way to present day...prob a little higher given the prolific recent decade which outweighs the stench of the 1980s. Same with places like ACK FAA observations. In our own weather utopia, every airport would have FAA observations that went back to at least the middle 20th century....too bad.

But the most recent years have def bumped up even the long term averages by at least a couple inches. The BOS longterm mean from 1949-1950 through 1999-2000 was 42.2"....but now the mean from 1949-1950 through 2017-2018 is 44.8". That is a pretty big influence the past 18 years has had...and of course the 30 year averages fluctuated even a bit more. The 1971-2000 mean at BOS was 41.5" and the new 1991-2020 mean is prob going to be close to 50" (!!!) before any smoothing. I figure smoothing will knock it down a bit, but the actual arithmetic mean is very high.

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even the old HVN FAA observations only had 30 years from like '47-'77...so who knows what their number would be if we could go all the way to present day...prob a little higher given the prolific recent decade which outweighs the stench of the 1980s. Same with places like ACK FAA observations. In our own weather utopia, every airport would have FAA observations that went back to at least the middle 20th century....too bad.

But the most recent years have def bumped up even the long term averages by at least a couple inches. The BOS longterm mean from 1949-1950 through 1999-2000 was 42.2"....but now the mean from 1949-1950 through 2017-2018 is 44.8". That is a pretty big influence the past 18 years has had...and of course the 30 year averages fluctuated even a bit more. The 1971-2000 mean at BOS was 41.5" and the new 1991-2020 mean is prob going to be close to 50" (!!!) before any smoothing. I figure smoothing will knock it down a bit, but the actual arithmetic mean is very high.

Sadlly, the numbers in the BDL climate reports and the 30-year averages from NCDC are wrong. They averaged in a couple "zeroes" from the missing data in the late 90s. I have no idea how they didn't catch it and after bringing it up to BOX they were told there is nothing they can do. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Sadlly, the numbers in the BDL climate reports and the 30-year averages from NCDC are wrong. They averaged in a couple "zeroes" from the missing data in the late 90s. I have no idea how they didn't catch it and after bringing it up to BOX they were told there is nothing they can do. 

Yeah I already tried that entire process with ORH about 10 years ago. We even recreated the ORH data into F6 format with old PNS reports and hourly obs....but they couldn't get it into NCDC.

NCDC would rather have zeros in there. I guess if they change their minds, I still have all the data in F6 format saved. Pretty sure BOX has it too since I sent it to them a couple different times in our multiple attempts to get past the red tape.

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I already tried that entire process with ORH about 10 years ago. We even recreated the ORH data into F6 format with old PNS reports and hourly obs....but they couldn't get it into NCDC.

NCDC would rather have zeros in there. I guess if they change their minds, I still have all the data in F6 format saved. Pretty sure BOX has it too since I sent it to them a couple different times in our multiple attempts to get past the red tape.

We just ignore the seasonal climate averages for BDL and just use our own number lol

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

We just ignore the seasonal climate averages for BDL and just use our own number lol

Yeah...the whole process left me with a really sour taste in my mouth with NCDC. They didn't care at all. Even the NERCC at Cornell had some data for ORH during the blackout years, esp early on like the record-breaking year of 1995-1996....NCDC didn't care. They wouldn't even take that year to have the correct seasonal snowfall record on the books.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah...the whole process left me with a really sour taste in my mouth with NCDC. They didn't care at all. Even the NERCC at Cornell had some data for ORH during the blackout years, esp early on like the record-breaking year of 1995-1996....NCDC didn't care. They wouldn't even take that year to have the correct seasonal snowfall record on the books.

I would have been fine if they just ignored the years... but zeroes? Come on. 

[#NoPoles]

LES in April? I would like to be done with winter...sigh...

[Ginx snewx]

April

[Lava Rock]

April

Lol, I literally just looked at same page. Meanwhile they're still grooming trails in Caribou

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[CT Rain]

Not QCd but this is certainly an odd seasonal snowfall distribution in CT. FWIW, Norfolk 2 SW is up to 100.7"

 

 

[nzucker]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The immediate coast in SW CT averages less than 30"....BDR does, though admittedly not by much...their long term average since 1950 is 29.5. You prob dont have to go that far inland to get above 30, but the immediate coast there is a pretty bad spot. Their 30 year average will def go up though. Their 1971-2000 mean is something like 24 inches but goes up to 27 inches for 1981-2010.

It has always been my opinion though that 30 years is too short for snowfall as it doesn't allow for the full decadal cycles of the AO/PDO complete. So you catch a cruddy period or a good period and it can be vastly different. The 1971-2000 normals were some of the worst for a lot of the Northeast from NYC northeastward. It's why I like to capture at least 50-60 years in the record, but no method is going to be perfect.

BDR is also on a peninsula and is well-known for undermeasuring. Most people do not live that close to the water in an exposed airport location filled with tarmacs. I imagine places like Greenwich average AT LEAST 30". It doesn't make sense for Dobbs Ferry to average 36-38" and Greenwich, 10 miles to the northeast at similar elevation, to average 25-28"...

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, nzucker said:

BDR is also on a peninsula and is well-known for undermeasuring. Most people do not live that close to the water in an exposed airport location filled with tarmacs. I imagine places like Greenwich average AT LEAST 30". It doesn't make sense for Dobbs Ferry to average 36-38" and Greenwich, 10 miles to the northeast at similar elevation, to average 25-28"...

Well we're not discussing where people live...we were originally discussing the coastline of CT and what they average. Dobbs Ferry coop is well inland compared to Greenwich and at 240 feet. Not a good comp. Like saying that BOS should average at least 50" because Framingham at the same latitude inland 15 miles averages mid 50s. Maybe western sides of Boston are averaging high 40s or close to 50, but not the airport.

 

I def agree that once you are back from the water, then its higher. BDR and BOS probably don't undermeasure in any meaningful way, they are just not very representative of where most of the population in each city lives.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

Not QCd but this is certainly an odd seasonal snowfall distribution in CT. FWIW, Norfolk 2 SW is up to 100.7"

 

 

Easton CT 55.5.

[EastonSN+]

This a good example of the CT valley cold drain/loss of snow.

Blizzard of 1996 represented well here with western CT in the 20 to 30 range.

[OceanStWx]

3 hours ago, CT Rain said:

Sadlly, the numbers in the BDL climate reports and the 30-year averages from NCDC are wrong. They averaged in a couple "zeroes" from the missing data in the late 90s. I have no idea how they didn't catch it and after bringing it up to BOX they were told there is nothing they can do. 

 

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I already tried that entire process with ORH about 10 years ago. We even recreated the ORH data into F6 format with old PNS reports and hourly obs....but they couldn't get it into NCDC.

NCDC would rather have zeros in there. I guess if they change their minds, I still have all the data in F6 format saved. Pretty sure BOX has it too since I sent it to them a couple different times in our multiple attempts to get past the red tape.

It's probably more egregious that NCDC(NCEI) has 0s in there rather than Ms. At least Ms don't average in. 

It's nearly an act of Congress to get data changed there though. God forbid if we miss certifying a coop B-91 before the deadline, otherwise that month may never get into the record.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

 Jerry can queue up Roy for the end of winter and end of Celtics season.

[CoastalWx]

Today was cold. Howling wind all day and still frozen topsoil in shade. 

[CoastalWx]

4 hours ago, CT Rain said:

Not QCd but this is certainly an odd seasonal snowfall distribution in CT. FWIW, Norfolk 2 SW is up to 100.7"

 

 

Even here a min near BOS with a max down by Foxboro-TAN and not by a few inches either. 

[dendrite]

Thought this was a nice account of 1938 in Manchester at the old WFEA. I can’t imagine experiencing that up here today.

http://www.manfrommars.com/wfeahurr.html

[CapturedNature]

20 hours ago, CT Rain said:

Not QCd but this is certainly an odd seasonal snowfall distribution in CT. FWIW, Norfolk 2 SW is up to 100.7"

 

 

The difference between Enfield and Stafford is pretty large for such a small area.  That's a 35" difference in less than 10 miles with only about a 6-800' difference in elevation.

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

The difference between Enfield and Stafford is pretty large for such a small area.  That's a 35" difference in less than 10 miles with only about a 6-800' difference in elevation.

Even Somers with only 67”. I bet the higher parts of town had the same as us.

[CoastalWx]

30 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

The difference between Enfield and Stafford is pretty large for such a small area.  That's a 35" difference in less than 10 miles with only about a 6-800' difference in elevation.

How is that possible? There were not many elevation storms. Looks like some slant and some measured a wind blown spot. 

[dendrite]

Gotta be careful for some weenie cocorahs sites. Some miss obs too. 

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

How is that possible? There were not many elevation storms. Looks like some slant and some measured a wind blown spot. 

Missing data 

[Ginx snewx]

52 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

The difference between Enfield and Stafford is pretty large for such a small area.  That's a 35" difference in less than 10 miles with only about a 6-800' difference in elevation.

Enfield has 16 missing days

[Ginx snewx]

We detree

[Cold Miser]

Pic from friend on CT long island sound coast.

[ORH_wxman]

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Enfield has 16 missing days

But yet their snowfall total lines up pretty close to BDL. It could be a somewhat low, but prob close to reality....unless we think BDL has a major error somewhere.