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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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apparently Kevin hasn't seen the 12z Euro... 

I was afraid that .. .looking at that yesterday ...last night, I was thinking it was precarious for BD and well... this run walls off the warmth such that yar, the pattern flips finally but we still get to be f'ed for it classically in New England's inimitable way of ruining April - 

Yeah, every year re-solidifies my goal and dream to own a 2nd home some place far away from this god-forsaken lat and lon where I can escape from April 1 to ...whatever date it is deemed safe to return.  It's just an automatic built in prison sentence around here - 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Was pretty special 3rd week where I was if you catch my drift

Lol yeah it was epic up in Maine..I got there right after all the snow fell and the depths were 4+ feet in the lowlands and much higher on the mountain,.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It did get damped out considerably though ...all fields... Hard to ignore that - 

I always assume the worst in April when a warmup is shown in the medium range. We do succeed sometimes, but often time its a "partial" success...where maybe 4 days of 70+ turns into a day of 75F and then a "71F at 11am, 47F at 2pm with flags stiffly pointing SW" and then 2 days of murk and 42F after that....like the initial signal did correctly point to a warm intrusion, but it failed on the duration aspect and didn't "see" the BDF until closer.

 

OF course, once in a while, we do achieve amazing summer-like stretches in April...1976, 1990, 2002 and 2009 come to mind off the top of my head.

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36 minutes ago, Hazey said:

As long as it's dry, I love April weather. Can work outside without a winter parka or sweating to death. Don't have to worry about being eaten alive by mosquitoes. Fingers crossed it stays mostly dry.

lol.  I would think up Nova Scotia would be worse than here.  Cooler Latitude, More back door ocean cold, and just more damp misery. 

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

apparently Kevin hasn't seen the 12z Euro... 

I was afraid that .. .looking at that yesterday ...last night, I was thinking it was precarious for BD and well... this run walls off the warmth such that yar, the pattern flips finally but we still get to be f'ed for it classically in New England's inimitable way of ruining April - 

Yeah, every year re-solidifies my goal and dream to own a 2nd home some place far away from this god-forsaken lat and lon where I can escape from April 1 to ...whatever date it is deemed safe to return.  It's just an automatic built in prison sentence around here - 

This.

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I always assume the worst in April when a warmup is shown in the medium range. We do succeed sometimes, but often time its a "partial" success...where maybe 4 days of 70+ turns into a day of 75F and then a "71F at 11am, 47F at 2pm with flags stiffly pointing SW" and then 2 days of murk and 42F after that....like the initial signal did correctly point to a warm intrusion, but it failed on the duration aspect and didn't "see" the BDF until closer.

 

OF course, once in a while, we do achieve amazing summer-like stretches in April...1976, 1990, 2002 and 2009 come to mind off the top of my head.

mmm ... I just think with seasonal trend and the 'buckle' effect/blocking tendencies ... I don't see why that's leaving really?  That makes subtropical ridge expansion scenarios inherently at risk along the northern peripheries where they kiss the westerlies ... prone TO wedging synoptics.  That BD fits with all that.  So in short ..yeah, agree ...should butt bang spring enthusiast one way or the other there. 

Also, the storm on Tuesday - that got damped too... interesting. It's like it normalized that one and knocked back the warmth at the end of the week.  Perfect! The Euro's plan to phase out all preferences from occurring is almost complete -

 

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by the way, the 2002 was sickest warm/hot weather stretch in April I ever recall prior to, or since.   We were ...94  F one day, and we were doing tennis at the public courts in Waltham where I lived at the time. Waltham is situated like 10 or 12 miles as the crow flies, west of Boston there just on the sea side of I95, so inherently prone to oceanic cooling?  Yet, ..in April of all months, not 20 minutes past the coldest water of Boston Harbor's annual existence ... the wind kicked around while we were mid way through a set and cooled the temperature from the 90s to 80 ...  It was just bizarro .. .. 

I've also seen the biggest kick back in temperature ever at that time of year, too... March 31, 1998!   91 to 39 in 12 hours from a BD that trucked from CAR, ME to NYC in 18 hours ... I think we gusted to 45 mph too when that sucker went through up at UML. 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

by the way, the 2002 was sickest warm/hot weather stretch in April I ever recall prior to, or since.   We were ...94  F one day, and we were doing tennis at the public courts in Waltham where I lived at the time. Waltham is situated like 10 or 12 miles as the crow flies, west of Boston there just on the sea side of I95, so inherently prone to oceanic cooling?  Yet, ..in April of all months, not 20 minutes past the coldest water of Boston Harbor's annual existence ... the wind kicked around while we were mid way through a set and cooled the temperature from the 90s to 80 ...  It was just bizarro .. .. 

I've also seen the biggest kick back in temperature ever at that time of year, too... March 31, 1998!   91 to 39 in 12 hours from a BD that trucked from CAR, ME to NYC in 18 hours ... I think we gusted to 45 mph too when that sucker went through up at UML. 

76

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3 hours ago, amarshall said:

Thinking about Sugarloaf/Sunday River...where would you go? 

They'll both still have plenty of snow and lots of open trails, conditions would probably hinge on grooming.  Ginxy would know better than one who hasn't skied since getting a broken leg 37 years ago.  (Not skiing - was riding in a pickup that hit head-on with a loaded log truck; we lost.)

Choice between 3/06 and 3/14 is a no-brainer here.  Would you prefer 2.8" snow or 30.8" snow?  (Even if that snow came with temps averaging 11° colder?)

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51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I always assume the worst in April when a warmup is shown in the medium range. We do succeed sometimes, but often time its a "partial" success...where maybe 4 days of 70+ turns into a day of 75F and then a "71F at 11am, 47F at 2pm with flags stiffly pointing SW" and then 2 days of murk and 42F after that....like the initial signal did correctly point to a warm intrusion, but it failed on the duration aspect and didn't "see" the BDF until closer.

 

OF course, once in a while, we do achieve amazing summer-like stretches in April...1976, 1990, 2002 and 2009 come to mind off the top of my head.

Just give me sustained W-NW flow with 850s pushing 5C all month and I’ll be happy. Things seem to go downhill when we get weak ridging building in, SW flow, and confluence into SE QB. Those backdoor airmasses just get too much momentum undercutting the warmer, humid air. Keep the opposing airmass densities more similar and they play together a lot more nicely.

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Just give me sustained W-NW flow with 850s pushing 5C all month and I’ll be happy. Things seem to go downhill when we get weak ridging building in, SW flow, and confluence into SE QB. Those backdoor airmasses just get too much momentum undercutting the warmer, humid air. Keep the opposing airmass densities more similar and they play together a lot more nicely.

All you need is a little weakness in the height field off to the east. Once you get the meso-low in the Gulf of Maine, then you have the pressure gradient working against you too. 

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52 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

by the way, the 2002 was sickest warm/hot weather stretch in April I ever recall prior to, or since.   

I've also seen the biggest kick back in temperature ever at that time of year, too... March 31, 1998!   91 to 39 in 12 hours from a BD that trucked from CAR, ME to NYC in 18 hours ... I think we gusted to 45 mph too when that sucker went through up at UML. 

That 2002 heatwave was almost a carbon copy of 1976 for BOS/NYC, but one day earlier.  We were in NNJ visiting family at Easter time in 1976, and headed north that 96° Sunday.  Stopped in W.CT and could hear the hot metal pinging on the Beetle's engine.  Got to Boston late afternoon to have dinner at my wife's bro-SIL's apt, treated to a rat scurrying across 2 feet in front of us, looking for a hole but too fat to fit.  SIL had cooked up a massive meat-and-potatoes meal, and the non-AC apt was mid 80s or worse.  She's Hawaiin-born and was fine; the rest of us did our best but only ate enough to be polite.  Got back to Ft. Kent, where it had barely cleared 60 and still had snow patches.  Ahhhh! What a relief.  2002 didn't do much in Maine, mostly low 70s, while 1976 had near 90 up to AUG and mid 80s to BGR.

Late March 1998 we were tromping thru 2-3 feet of snow just NE of Baxter park, light showers/IP with low-mid 30s.  Meanwhile, less than 100 miles south BGR was near 80, and beyond that PWM near 90.  Guess where the front was.

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

All you need is a little weakness in the height field off to the east. Once you get the meso-low in the Gulf of Maine, then you have the pressure gradient working against you too. 

Cold tuck FTW in winter. Cold tuck FTL in spring.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

apparently Kevin hasn't seen the 12z Euro... 

I was afraid that .. .looking at that yesterday ...last night, I was thinking it was precarious for BD and well... this run walls off the warmth such that yar, the pattern flips finally but we still get to be f'ed for it classically in New England's inimitable way of ruining April - 

Yeah, every year re-solidifies my goal and dream to own a 2nd home some place far away from this god-forsaken lat and lon where I can escape from April 1 to ...whatever date it is deemed safe to return.  It's just an automatic built in prison sentence around here - 

And yet people bash the hell out of FL on this board....looks pretty good to me for Winter Park

image.png.ca6abedbed7d4f4bc48cfda2104648a4.png

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

apparently Kevin hasn't seen the 12z Euro... 

I was afraid that .. .looking at that yesterday ...last night, I was thinking it was precarious for BD and well... this run walls off the warmth such that yar, the pattern flips finally but we still get to be f'ed for it classically in New England's inimitable way of ruining April - 

Yeah, every year re-solidifies my goal and dream to own a 2nd home some place far away from this god-forsaken lat and lon where I can escape from April 1 to ...whatever date it is deemed safe to return.  It's just an automatic built in prison sentence around here - 

It's the truth really. I don't need to get out of town in January or February, I need to get out in April. Most years I feel like I could delete that month and be fine.

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Not awful in the sun despite the cold.  42 misery most is worse.

Jerry,   I was just outside.  34F and still a pretty strong wind up here.  It felt like mid winter.  With wind I think 8F colder makes quite a difference.  I was going to do a bit of lawn raking but wind and cold drove me back inside.  We will see how fast we can melt tomorrows couple/few inches of snow so will give it another try Saturday or Sunday 40F might be pushing it up here...

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I always assume the worst in April when a warmup is shown in the medium range. We do succeed sometimes, but often time its a "partial" success...where maybe 4 days of 70+ turns into a day of 75F and then a "71F at 11am, 47F at 2pm with flags stiffly pointing SW" and then 2 days of murk and 42F after that....like the initial signal did correctly point to a warm intrusion, but it failed on the duration aspect and didn't "see" the BDF until closer.

 

OF course, once in a while, we do achieve amazing summer-like stretches in April...1976, 1990, 2002 and 2009 come to mind off the top of my head.

 April 2009 was crazy nice in the valley.   Our first spring in the house and still the best summer garden I ever had!

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Didn't get to freezing today under full sun in the mountain valleys, just thickening the pond ice a little more in April...even BTV in torch land was only 33 or 34F I think for a high.

Up at the office the high for the day is 25.2F lol.  A high of 25F in the parking lots in April with full blue sky.  I'm all set on that air mass.

Snow is still hard and slick in the yard, no daytime softening what-so-ever.   For the first time in a long time though (maybe even Thanksgiving time frame?), the yard is more grass than snow cover after the rainer yesterday. 

 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I always assume the worst in April when a warmup is shown in the medium range. We do succeed sometimes, but often time its a "partial" success...where maybe 4 days of 70+ turns into a day of 75F and then a "71F at 11am, 47F at 2pm with flags stiffly pointing SW" and then 2 days of murk and 42F after that....like the initial signal did correctly point to a warm intrusion, but it failed on the duration aspect and didn't "see" the BDF until closer.

 

OF course, once in a while, we do achieve amazing summer-like stretches in April...1976, 1990, 2002 and 2009 come to mind off the top of my head.

April 1990 was insane. We had an exchange student from Spain for the year and it was so hot we opened the pool for the Spanish kids. It was hilarious watching them react when their bodies hit the 50degree water

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3 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

April 1990 was insane. We had an exchange student from Spain for the year and it was so hot we opened the pool for the Spanish kids. It was hilarious watching them react when their bodies hit the 50degree water

One of the few times ORH has hit 90F in April. 1990 and then the only other times were 1976 and 2002.

 

edit: The pre-airport site did it in 1941 also.

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