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March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay
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2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

convection, y’all. we’ll know 12-24h in advance. expect surprises, enjoy them even. 

 

 

if i got paid for every time models overamped eastern convection, pulling our best dynamics with it, id be rich...usually its the cause for our double barrel looks in this model range, never pans out imo

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GFS cut way back...NAM 3k cut way back....Nam 12K has mega sleet then snows. Looking like Mt Holly may have jumped the gun on the big amounts.....its so bad that these models are so inconsistent virtually every storm...now we wait for tonights run and even then it will take until tomorrow afternoon to have an idea

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This will probably come right down to the wire close to nowcast time like most other events this year. I feel bad for anyone that has to put out exact numbers much before the 12z runs tomorrow.

exactly. i hated having to put out numbers today when the range is realistically 0-18”. 

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

In totality, this March has probably been one of the most challenging forecast months in the 2010's for our area.

I couldn’t agree more. I have been really trying to think this one through before posting my final thoughts. I do like the available cold and potential after peak insulation for wave two for the city. My current thinking is this will be the biggest event for March in the Park  

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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

18z GGEM bumped up a bit too. Not as big as NAVGEM but improved over 12z.

So far only GFS, 3kMAN, ICON, Deep Thunder and RPM took a turn for the worse.

if you look at mid/upper levels and understand why the gfs evolved as it did, it was actually an improvement where it matter

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