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Ji

I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

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31 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said:

Yeah I like it. It’s clear now the phased bomb crawler isn’t happening. I’ll take a few inches in March and be very happy.  

I’ll pass, not interested in instant melting slop.  

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I'm actually not stressing the GEFS. Looks like only one member shuts us out and lots of good hits.

I'm feeling better about getting at least something decent out of this. Probably not a HECS but it looks like I could easily get my top snowfall of the season.

 

iEXoELb.jpg

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

I’ll pass, not interested in instant melting slop.  

Weather happens whether you want it or not.

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4 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I'm actually not stressing the GEFS. Looks like only one member shuts us out and lots of good hits.

I'm feeling better about getting at least something decent out of this. Probably not a HECS but it looks like I could easily get my top snowfall of the season.

 

iEXoELb.jpg

Even the worst member I get something.  Most get something.  We could be tracking grass, pollen, mulch this time of year.  Not too shabby. Life is good. 

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6 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I'm actually not stressing the GEFS. Looks like only one member shuts us out and lots of good hits.

I'm feeling better about getting at least something decent out of this. Probably not a HECS but it looks like I could easily get my top snowfall of the season.

 

iEXoELb.jpg

I mean. I just dont know how you can look at those panels be negative in any way? I may just need to take a break from the thread for a while. I am not getting the negative vibe in here.

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53 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

I agree.  Mind you, I'm a classical ballet major and not a meteorologist so y'all know many times better than I do, but I'm just enjoying seeing where this thing goes and giving it some time.  

Well we are going to tiptoe our way to some snow.  All the shortwaves showing up are doing an allegro and I don't think any model has them shown 100% right as of yet. They all need to batterie together to make this all work. If wave 1 doesn't deliver then we need wave 2 to make the trough allonge so that it goes negative sooner. That would give us snow too.

All these things are chaines and while we like to chasse storms if they don't deliver many here will flip out when this thing echappes.

 

Did I butcher this well enough?  I only went through the letter E on a ballet dictionary website.

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Really surprised no one mentioned the timing. The first wave comes in between 18z Monday and 0z Tuesday, and peaks in intensity at 6z Tuesday. No sun angle to deal with here, unless we're talking about the 2nd wave


.

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Just now, Cobalt said:

Really surprised no one mentioned the timing. The first wave comes in between 18z Monday and 0z Tuesday, and peaks in intensity at 6z Tuesday. No sun angle to deal with here, unless we're talking about the 2nd wave


.

I have a few times every time someone says something about rates and March 

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7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I mean. I just dont know how you can look at those panels be negative in any way? I may just need to take a break from the thread for a while. I am not getting the negative vibe in here.

The last two Euro runs give my yard 0.00" of precip.  If that changes, I will feel better about seeing some snow.  If it doesn't, the other model solutions don't mean much in my book.

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4 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

Weather happens whether you want it or not.

Hahaha, of course.  I’m full @Ji mode for this though, fully phased bomb with CCB rakeage or bust.  

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5 minutes ago, H2O said:

Well we are going to tiptoe our way to some snow.  All the shortwaves showing up are doing an allegro and I don't think any model has them shown 100% right as of yet. They all need to batterie together to make this all work. If wave 1 doesn't deliver then we need wave 2 to make the trough allonge so that it goes negative sooner. That would give us snow too.

All these things are chaines and while we like to chasse storms if they don't deliver many here will flip out when this thing echappes.

 

Did I butcher this well enough?  I only went through the letter E on a ballet dictionary website.

No no, that was en pointe!

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This run is very close to epic. Shift the 850 line like 50 miles more south and kaboom. Precip is in the a lot range. But, that's also a NAM thing. 

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3 hours ago, Ji said:

Why does it never want to snow here?

Jb this morning is saying exactly what I did last night lol. The lead wave speeding up and then shearing out is screwing this up. Instead of getting to the coast then pulling everything in behind it and focusing the upper level energy it washes out and all the vorts are left to meander around aimlessly behind it. Without that phasing pulling the second vort in the next vort digs too much and ends up way too far south and so not only is the coastal weak its south. Game over. 

What we want to see ideally is a trend back to a stronger slower lead wave that then pulls everything in behind it. Only other way would be if it somehow got out of the way completely and something amplified behind on its own but that's a huge shift at short leads now. 

If we see any further degradation today it's probably game over Baltimore north and reduced to only a marginal event from wave 1 D.C. South. 

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Just now, TSSN+ said:

This run is very close to epic. Shift the 850 line like 50 miles more south and kaboom. Precip is in the a lot range. But, that's also a NAM thing. 

The GFS brought 1" of precip into DC in the front end thump

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Transfer off of VB at 75. We are getting hit hard. Some temp issues close to the city. But this is an EPIC run for the NW burbs.

And still snowing at 84 BTW:

snku_acc.us_ma.png

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Jb this morning is saying exactly what I did last night lol. The lead wave speeding up and then shearing out is screwing this up. Instead of getting to the coast then pulling everything in behind it and focusing the upper level energy it washes out and all the vorts are left to meander around aimlessly behind it. Without that phasing pulling the second vort in the next vort digs too much and ends up way too far south and so not only is the coastal weak its south. Game over. 

What we want to see ideally is a trend back to a stronger slower lead wave that then pulls everything in behind it. Only other way would be if it somehow got out of the way completely and something amplified behind on its own but that's a huge shift at short leads now. 

If we see any further degradation today it's probably game over Baltimore north and reduced to only a marginal event from wave 1 D.C. South. 

If we are relying on timing again...mercy. We haven't done good timing right all year! Man I hope we can pull a miracle here...

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The GFS/NAM been trending south toward euro, last night euro was north of 12/z yesterday. Think they meet in the middle and we win. 

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Me thinks we need a south trend with the 1st wave

5aad2b0b76048_snku_acc.us_ne(2).thumb.png.f6b5b7c1e8d0ac2f5a6e18882b1406f6.png

It's been trending south. Here's just the last two runs. 

nam.gif

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