I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Precip looks better, but the thermals aren't as favorable

[87storms]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

The NAM looked like it had some semblance of wave 2...all caveats apply for the NAM of course

It could still be in play i think if wave 1 slows down or stalls.

[Cobalt]

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Precip looks better, but the thermals aren't as favorable

Hug Euro Thermals 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Big blowup of qpf over the Chesapeake at hr72 iwm.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Precip looks better, but the thermals aren't as favorable

Thermals always look like dookie on the GFS.   From what I've learned form mets, NAMs are usually better..but with this winter, this the case where the GFS warmth will win.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

It moves out quick similar to the NAM. Mid-afternoon Tuesday looks dry.

[TSSN+]

Definitely a step in right direction with wave one. 

[87storms]

Wave is close and someone looks to get a Jan 11 thump.  Cities are close and 2nd wave doesn’t look impossible either.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Thermals always look like dookie on the GFS.   From what I've learned form mets, NAMs are usually better..but with this winter, this the case where the GFS warmth will win.

Gfs is pretty good in general. Except for Psu and Ji, we should all be pretty satisfied with what it shows through hr72. 

[clskinsfan]

The GFS is very similar to the NAM a little bit warmer and a little bit faster. But the track is almost identical.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs is pretty good in general. Except for Psu and Ji, we should all be pretty satisfied with what it shows through hr72. 

Plenty of precip just need it to be colder 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Wave two hits most of southern VA with the northern edge approximately Fredericksburg.

[87storms]

That vort came through with some qpf heat. Curious what the qpf output for wave 1 is.

[ErinInTheSky]

I think it’s a step in the right direction with both waves. A little north on the second and we get long duration snow.

[Jandurin]

At least it's not a complicated storm.

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, 87storms said:

That vort came through with some qpf heat. Curious what the qpf output for wave 1 is.

It's pretty good dude. Just over 1" in 12 hours for you and me. We can Deb out on the mids and stuff but I'm totally good with the run. These kinds of march deals can pack a bunch of juice. Mid Jan would be a half inch qpf tops. Late March is a whole nuther game 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

It's pretty good dude. Just over 1" in 12 hours for your and me. We can Deb out on the mids and stuff but I'm totally good with the run. These kinds of march deals can pack a bunch of juice. Mid Jan would be a half inch qpf tops. Late March is a whole nuther game 

What are your thoughts on wave 2? (And the overall H5 look) Still room to trend better, or might it get squashed? 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What are your thoughts on wave 2? (And the overall H5 look) Still room to trend better, or might it get squashed? 

PSU will be here shortly to tell you it's over

[stormtracker]

Kinda surprised at this sounding at the hight of the heavy precip in DC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2018031712&fh=72&lat=38.89&lon=-76.99&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

PSU will be here shortly to tell you it's over

I can certainly see a scenario where my yard fails entirely with both...I’m good with everything I see for now.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What are your thoughts on wave 2? (And the overall H5 look) Still room to trend better, or might it get squashed? 

Just my gut and experience...

Without a phase with wave 1 there isn't much upside. They are awfully close together. If they don't work together (which looks to be the case right now) then wave 2 won't do much in general. Go back through time and think about tightly spaced discrete events that produce big. Feb 2010 doesn't count because this is no Feb 2010. Not even close. The atmosphere needs to recover before dumping a second time. I dont see that kind of opportunity. Just a gut call though. No writing off anything. 

[aldie 22]

Just now, BristowWx said:

I can certainly see a scenario where my yard fails entirely with both...I’m good with everything I see for now.

Of course you can brother lol 

[psurulz]

Bob, how close are we to wave 2 coming together and giving us some serious snow?  GFS looked close to me, but I'm not as experienced as some others on the board.

NVM....see Bob just answered it.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, psurulz said:

Bob, how close are we to wave 2 coming together and giving us some serious snow?  GFS looked close to me, but I'm not as experienced as some others on the board.

It was pretty close to dropping precip over our area. See my previous post for my gut call on the upside. Wave 1 is clearly the big show.....for now

[Bob Chill]

If nothing else, this March has been good to pass time before next winter's annual fall hype kickoff 

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

If nothing else, this March has been good to pass time before next winter's annual fall hype kickoff 

It did make the off-season 1 month shorter.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Of course you can brother lol 

You knew I would say that..and I knew you would respond.  Predictable we are my friend

[clskinsfan]

CMC is nice with both waves. 

ICON is not so good with either. Thank god it is a worthless model.

[nj2va]

19 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Kinda surprised at this sounding at the hight of the heavy precip in DC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2018031712&fh=72&lat=38.89&lon=-76.99&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular

Throw in it’s warm bias with thermals and that’s a good look for us. 

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

CMC is nice with both waves. 

ICON is not so good with either. Thank god it is a worthless model.

Euro/gfs combo all the way at 72 hours. Then the mesos inside of 48 to add value. I know you know this. We'd probably be better off if the gfs and euro were the only 2 globals. They do excellent in the d3 range in general. 

I'm almost positive the euro comes north some with the stripe and I'll blatantly hug the euro qpf totals from here on out too.