I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just my gut and experience...

Without a phase with wave 1 there isn't much upside. They are awfully close together. If they don't work together (which looks to be the case right now) then wave 2 won't do much in general. Go back through time and think about tightly spaced discrete events that produce big. Feb 2010 doesn't count because this is no Feb 2010. Not even close. The atmosphere needs to recover before dumping a second time. I dont see that kind of opportunity. Just a gut call though. No writing off anything. 

I see...so there's not a scenario where wave 2 could slow down enough to let the atmosphere "recover" and let it produce afterward? (Was that the 2 wave idea that the models were showing a few days ago? Or was even that setup dependent on a phase?)

[Jandurin]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I'm almost positive the euro comes north some with the stripe and I'll blatantly hug the euro qpf totals from here on out too. 

Literally the most important euro run of the winter.

[Jandurin]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I see...so there's not a scenario where wave 2 could slow down enough to let the atmosphere "recover" and let it produce afterward? (Was that the 2 wave idea that the models were showing a few days ago? Or was even that setup dependent on a phase?)

No, wave 1 and wave 2 were working together.

[87storms]

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Kinda surprised at this sounding at the hight of the heavy precip in DC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2018031712&fh=72&lat=38.89&lon=-76.99&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular

Looks good upstairs. Maybe just need rates

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

Literally the most important euro run of the winter.

If wave 1 can leave a leftover boundary then I could maybe see a situation where the ull comes through and lifts things north again.  Im guessing though

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I see...so there's not a scenario where wave 2 could slow down enough to let the atmosphere "recover" and let it produce afterward? (Was that the 2 wave idea that the models were showing a few days ago? Or was even that setup dependent on a phase?)

Sure, there's a scenario for that. Give it at least another 24 hours before worrying one way or the other. Wave 1 needs to be locked in before getting confident on wave 2. Even without a phase wave 1 will impact the fate of wave 2. However, wave 2 isn't nearly as attractive as a few days ago. That's pretty obvious. 

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

Looks good upstairs. Maybe just need rates

Well I mean, the GFS has been insistent on 1" QPF from wave 1, so we'll see. 

[Roger Smith]

Roll over Beethoven, winter is Bach, it ain't Haydn no more. 

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

Literally the most important euro run of the winter.

Not really. Even if its identical to last night the range of possibilities are the same. The really important runs are still 24+ hours away. Even if the Euro shifts south I wont feel any different yet. 

[87storms]

um, cmc looks interesting.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Roger Smith said:

Roll over Beethoven, winter is Bach, it ain't Haydn no more. 

And let us hope we add this to the short Liszt of late winter successes!  (Alright music puns!!! Are you a musician, good sir?)

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not really. Even if its identical to last night the range of possibilities are the same. The really important runs are still 24+ hours away. Even if the Euro shifts south I wont feel any different yet. 

Remember when ya said "WHEN the EURO shifts north"? I'm holdin' ya to that, buddy!! 

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Roll over Beethoven, winter is Bach, it ain't Haydn no more. 

I groaned and admired this at the same time.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I groaned and admired this at the same time.

If ya can't Handel it, there's the door! 

[Roger Smith]

Glad you could Handel it. 

(yes, am a musician)

(ninja'd I see)

(still working on wolf gang idea, need better guidance, still Chopin for the best model)

[Roger Smith]

Smith's first law of models ... a model's worth is directly proportional to the amount of snow it depicts. 

[stormtracker]

CMC looks good for N and W folks.   Definitely a step back for others.  I think this is starting to gel into a classic March N and W event.  Can't be mad at climatology.  Not being a deb this time, just stating the obvious.  Most of us are going to need a lot of help with this one.   Second wave looks good for about an inch in the cities.   So realistically, I'd say our upside is about 4" total...which would double our snowfall for the year.  

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If ya can't Handel it, there's the door! 

Pretty good.  Pretty good. Another good groaner. 

[RDM]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Smith's first law of models ... a model's worth is directly proportional to the amount of snow it depicts. 

Then based on this year's calculations everyone in the MA is due a refund given the poor ROI

[87storms]

if you run the loop can see the vort pass.  closes off right under us.  i'm assuming we would want to lock that in asap.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018031712&fh=72

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

CMC looks good for N and W folks.   Definitely a step back for others.  I think this is starting to gel into a classic March N and W event.  Can't be mad at climatology.  Not being a deb this time, just stating the obvious.  Most of us are going to need a lot of help with this one.   Second wave looks good for about an inch in the cities.   So realistically, I'd say our upside is about 4" total...which would double our snowfall for the year.  

Identical thoughts. Yea, there's a way for urban and close burbs to be pleasantly surprised but reserving that enthusiasm for if/when it is happening in real time is good practice. I'm enjoying the hunt either way. Short range is around the corner too 

[RDM]

5 minutes ago, 87storms said:

if you run the loop can see the vort pass.  closes off right under us.  i'm assuming we would want to lock that it in asap.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018031712&fh=72

based on entire loop - there's multiple more hits in store for the MA after Tu/Wed right on though 02 April...  Going to be a potentially captivating couple of weeks.

[87storms]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Identical thoughts. Yea, there's a way for urban and close burbs to be pleasantly surprised but reserving that enthusiasm for if/when it is happening in real time is good practice. I'm enjoying the hunt either way. Short range is around the corner too 

temps around 40 at onset, so we'll need those rates.  it does have that N&W of cities feel.  hoping wave 2 can also perform.  would be a fun 1-2 way to head into spring.

[Cobalt]

GEFS likes the 2nd wave a little better than last run.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

GEFS likes the 2nd wave a little better than last run.

Slight uptick in qpf. Here we go!

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

GEFS likes the 2nd wave a little better than last run.

Sweet run. Nice bump north with mean qpf with wave 1 too. Psu just breathed a microscopic sigh of relief. 

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sweet run. Nice bump north with mean qpf with wave 1 too. Psu just breathed a microscopic sigh of relief. 

No he didn't lol

[Interstate]

Ukie anyone?

[psuhoffman]

Great now we have 2 more threats to track. Yay 

[stormtracker]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Great now we have 2 more threats to track. Yay 

What are you talking about?