Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

Rjay

March 12th - 13th The It's Not Coming Storm Part 2

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

You can see the naked swirl S of HSE as weakening convection peels away (click on gif if it doesn't loop). A lot of guidance is moving the low w/ that cluster of showers but I suspect we'll see trends away from that. Already some hints of a more dominant western low on past few runs of HRRR, HRRRx and RAP.  

CODNEXLAB-GOES16-subregional-Carolinas-truecolor-14_42Z-20180312_map-8-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.dfaf11a660473c0156b97269ca6109c6.gif

What location is HSE ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

You can see the naked swirl S of HSE as weakening convection peels away (click on gif if it doesn't loop). A lot of guidance is moving the low w/ that cluster of showers but I suspect we'll see trends away from that. Already some hints of a more dominant western low on past few runs of HRRR, HRRRx and RAP.  

CODNEXLAB-GOES16-subregional-Carolinas-truecolor-14_42Z-20180312_map-8-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.dfaf11a660473c0156b97269ca6109c6.gif

Now of what significance will come of this... if any?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

12z RGEM

I_nw_EST_2018031212_021.png

I_nw_EST_2018031212_022.png

I_nw_EST_2018031212_023.png

I_nw_EST_2018031212_024.png

LI gets some good bands for a few hours... Well see how much precip that amounts to. 30-50 miles west would have been huge. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Now of what significance will come of this... if any?
If the western lp system is the one which becomes the focus.. Things shift W.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:
5 minutes ago, allgame830 said:
Now of what significance will come of this... if any?

If the western lp system is the one which becomes the focus.. Things shift W.

and could that have correlation with the northern stream diving down on the backside of the southern vort quicker?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mikem81 said:

.5 qpf makes it back into Nassau county (barely) on gfs

this is really going to come down to where the LOW forms and tracks early on... as purdue nicely showed us before!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

.5 qpf makes it back into Nassau county (barely) on gfs

Nice uptick for eastern areas

gfs_apcpn_neus_fh36_trend.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Observation:  Coastal radar echoes now merging with inland radar echoes right along outer banks.  Northern energy now in Ohio.  Water vapor imagery shows trough beginning to rotate, bending NW to SE.  Can the northern energy merge with the southern system fast enough?

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Observation:  Coastal radar echoes now merging with inland radar echoes right along outer banks.  Northern energy now in Ohio.  Water vapor imagery shows trough beginning to rotate, bending NW to SE.  Can the northern energy merge with the southern system fast enough?

What are the odds that every piece of model guidance is wrong at this range?

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

What are the odds that every piece of model guidance is wrong at this range?

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor???

  • Like 7
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

It happened less than a week ago in NJ. 

No they weren't, maybe in QPF but not where it counts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Observation:  Coastal radar echoes now merging with inland radar echoes right along outer banks.  Northern energy now in Ohio.  Water vapor imagery shows trough beginning to rotate, bending NW to SE.  Can the northern energy merge with the southern system fast enough?

So you're saying there's a chance? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

What are the odds that every piece of model guidance is wrong at this range?

Remote but this is a setup where the models have screwed up before. They can view northern stream shortwaves as kickers and be wrong or misplace the low centers slightly due to convection.  You won’t see a January 2000 type error but a 70-100 mile gaff is possible 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Remote but this is a setup where the models have screwed up before. They can view northern stream shortwaves as kickers and be wrong or misplace the low centers slightly due to convection.  You won’t see a January 2000 type error but a 70-100 mile gaff is possible 

How come Jan 2000 is impossible? Models have improved too much? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am NOT saying this is the Jan 5th blizzard, but look at the NWS storm archive page and look at the track. Pretty much identical but obviously this will not be as strong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×