March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[powderfreak]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nice subby screw job from SE NH into RI on the 00z Adolf.

ICON would work too.  A lot of stuff keeps ramping this up.  GFS may break that streak.

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Thanks Dendrite, I promise to be good and not take advantage of your good faith.  This storm is mesmerizing on satellite imagery, as some have said the storm was moving east, but I think it is just reforming and consolidating to the west more like the models showed today.  The SPC mesoanalysis showed this potential occurring any ways.  My best guess for eastern New England from Nantucket to Downeast ME is that someone along the coast will see upwards of 30-40", when the Weather Channel has cape cod in 24"+ on their snowfall map, you know its time for cape codders to go celebrate in the snowstorm.  Snowfall rates could be higher than 2"/hour, similar to the intensity of Jan 2005 storm we all remember, but duration won't be as long so quick exit could keep totals below 30" for a large area, but some one in a deformation band gets in on the fun, 30-40" likely

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs farts in the room full of hot chicks.

 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS backed off a bit.

That model is a complete waste of time and a national embarrassment. 

[Roger Smith]

03z position is approx 36.5N 72.5W. 

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs farts in the room full of hot chicks.

I take that as a good sign, given its performance last week.

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, Semper911 said:

And there's no work tomorrow. And there's bourbon.

Glad I bought some today, can relax tomorrow while it snows.

Welcome back James, enjoy the blizzard

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, Zeus said:

Have you done sex yet?

It's not too late 

[CT Rain]

Gotta love the GFS

[USCG RS]

3 minutes ago, Semper911 said:

And there's no work tomorrow. And there's bourbon.

High West? 

[weathafella]

Kind of cray given the gfs H7 look you’d think it would puke out more qpf.

[Amped]

so it's RGEM, GFS, vs NAM, HRRR and RAP.

[TalcottWx]

They could discontinue the operational GFS tomorrow as we know it and it wouldn't have a large effect on us

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Kind of cray given the gfs H7 look you’d think it would puke out more qpf.

Say no more..... 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Amped said:

so it's RGEM, GFS, vs NAM, HRRR and RAP.

GFS is the only model that didn't up the ante, though.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Is it just me or was the GFS crawling with the surface low pattern

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

It’ll be fun when the GFS rolls out 0.50”-0.75” for us. lol

Oh hey

[40/70 Benchmark]

Obviously QPF is low, but it was a little less aggressive with the n stream, so it didn't get tugged quite as far north.

It was apparent at hr 6.

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS is the only model that didn't up the ante, though.

And let's not forget how it performed in Feb '13 either. Scraper the morning of. 

[ORH_wxman]

GFS tries to come in and close it with a 3 run lead and takes a dump all over the mound.

Now there's 2 on and a 1 run lead...Euro has to slam it shut.

[rnaude241]

Cranky weather guy is probably drooling over the GFS

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I don't know where the east people are getting their information, latest observations were that the precip shield that broke out over eastern NY and PA was moving east, it is actually moving westward on radar, what are they thinking

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Glad I bought some today, can relax tomorrow while it snows.

Welcome back James, enjoy the blizzard

Greater Good Greylock IPA has made tonight even more enjoyable

[Semper911]

6 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

High West? 

Makers Mark. Never tried High West, but I'll look for it if you recommend it.

[Amped]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS is the only model that didn't up the ante, though.

GFS has the 700mb front 50-75 miles east of the NAM at 18hrs.   Looks like NAM just pulls the midlevel warmth further west.  I'm usually for playing it safe and splitting the difference.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, rnaude241 said:

Cranky weather guy is probably drooling over the GFS

Even the GFS is a big storm..nothing is a whiff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Amped said:

GFS has the 700mb front 50-75 miles east of the NAM at 18hrs.   Looks like NAM just pulls the midlevel warmth further west.  I'm usually for playing it safe and splitting the difference.

I'm usually for playing it safe and tossing the GFS.

[powderfreak]

GFS just keeps going like the energizer bunny.

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, Semper911 said:

Makers Mark. Never tried High West, but I'll look for it if you recommend it.

My brother turned me onto it. I recommend the Rendezvous version if you can find it. Campfire, though, is rather spicy and this could jive depending on your palate. 

[ORH_wxman]

No help from the Ukie...hair east of 12z run,.

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs farts in the room full of hot chicks.

It has been very stubborn getting any of the goods past SE MA and DE Maine.