March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

That's exactly what I'll be doing come Tuesday

I’m sorry for the OT but the whole gestalt of you ACTUALLY selling hot dogs while a tornado rumbles within an hour of your location is beyond classic.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, weathafella said:

I’m sorry for the OT but the whole gestalt of you ACTUALLY selling hot dogs while a tornado rumbles within an hour of your location is beyond classic.

I'm never going to live that down am I

[moneypitmike]

26 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Kind of reminds me of sam's maps..................

 

LOL--indeed it does.

Very little talk of wind with this.....non-factor?

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yea, Screw some occluded POS.

I can envision a scenario where someone in e MA pulls 3'. But not ready to go there publicly.

See what 00z does.

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw ..early on here this NAM run appears pretty identical... but were' only out to 12 hours

[Bostonseminole]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can envision a scenario where someone in e MA pulls 3'. But not ready to go there.

naked 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm never going to live that down am I

If you were selling anything but  s you might but I don’t see how that doesn’t end up in the hall of fame.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can envision a scenario where someone in e MA pulls 3'. But not ready to go there publicly.

See what 00z does.

Bufkit was there

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw ..early on here this NAM run appears pretty identical... but were' only out to 12 hours

northern stream seems a little faster but maybe just noise.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

LOL--indeed it does.

Very little talk of wind with this.....non-factor?

That low track is pretty far east right now, If it tracks closer i could see a wind factor

[Weenie]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw ..early on here this NAM run appears pretty identical... but were' only out to 12 hours

If there's even a 20 mile correction East half the forum will be on suicide watch

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can envision a scenario where someone in e MA pulls 3'. But not ready to go there publicly.

See what 00z does.

Would that require the ever-elusive stall?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

naked 

This system is not decaying....the deformation band will be hellacious.

[Hoth]

Just now, Weenie said:

If there's even a 20 mile correction East half the forum will be on suicide watch

Nah, just rip some Crown, then polish it off with a tall cool Budweiser.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Would that require the ever-elusive stall?

Not necessarily...no.

Provided it doesn't slip east...there will be some isolated 6"/hr type stuff. 

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This system is not decaying....the deformation band will be hellacious.

Yes, this would be closer to Feb '13 where you're getting that maximum rate of intensification nearby and maxing out the dynamics.

[weathafella]

Just now, Hoth said:

Nah, just rip some Crown, then polish it off with a tall cool Budweiser.

Whiskey-beer never fear.    Beer-whiskey very risky.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Looks a bit more tucked through 18

[ORH_wxman]

Agree with tip...through 18 hours it is almost dead nuts with the 18z run. If anything maybe the southern stream is just a hair weaker. 

[codfishsnowman]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I've only really gotten to look at things over the past hour but I don't even know how you really portray a snowfall map right now  I mean there are just so many uncertainties still and many of these uncertainties spew down to the mesoscale level in which good luck pinpointing now. Plus having the storm modeled as strong as it is and just how rapid the cyclogenesis happens is not really a good thing at all...we're going to see banded precip as opposed to a solid widespread precipitation shield.

so when a storm strengthens slower you get a more widespread shield like pd2, 1/96, 2/01?  these bandy noreasters have always been annoying

[Hoth]

Weaker might be a good thing.

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks a bit more tucked through 18

yeah, surface looks further nw at 19

[HullMA]

Looks like its gonna double down. Surprised over here if it does. Thought it was gonna cave.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

so when a storm strengthens slower you get a more widespread shield like pd2, 1/96, 2/01?  these bandy noreasters have always been annoying

Pd II and Jan 96 had tremendous isentropic lift...huge hi. That is one way to get that expansive QPF Sheild that isn't be ba banded.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Weaker might be a good thing.

Yeah... it keeps it from going further east

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

so when a storm strengthens slower you get a more widespread shield like pd2, 1/96, 2/01?  these bandy noreasters have always been annoying

yeah I think so. I think what happens is when they deepen so quickly (similar to tropical systems) perhaps the big pressure gradients leads to precip becoming more band-like b/c you'll getting rapidly rising columns of air and so with that you must get rapidly sinking columns of air

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

What's good Sam, man has 2009 been a while bro.  SO how is Oklahoma these days?  This storm looks amazing, the GFS was down to 965mb east of Chatham, with 850mb temps below -6C to -12C

[Hoth]

It's fun to think that 25 years ago tonight, some the folks on this forum were probably doing this exact same thing...just without easy inter-web access to all these nifty tools.

[weathafella]

I thInk it’s all noise at the his point.  Not enough changes to make a definitive statement.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

yeah I think so. I think what happens is when they deepen so quickly (similar to tropical systems) perhaps the big pressure gradients leads to precip becoming more band-like b/c you'll getting rapidly rising columns of air and so with that you must get rapidly sinking columns of air

Interesting take.