March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[USCG RS]

Just now, dryslot said:

Grab a calculator.........

Fingers and toes bruh...

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dryslot said:

Grab a calculator.........

In the county for this one.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Grab a calculator.........

Yeah there isn;t an option for the 36 hour total...or run total. Seems like 24h is the biggest increment you can use on that site unless I'm missing something

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

In the county for this one.

Stay NW or down towards Ashland/Mili, PI and CAR won't see as much with this one.

[Weenie]

Technically should be on the observation thread but the snow just started on Boston, pretty light as of right now

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah there isn;t an option for the 36 hour total...or run total. Seems like 24h is the biggest increment you can use on that site unless I'm missing something

No, It doesn't give total qpf on there that i can see.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dryslot said:

No, It doesn't give total qpf on there that i can see.

Yea my bad 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

So many models have placed good banding over parts of the Pioneer Valley with subsidence a bit to the E.  Usually I would dismiss it as models misreading topography but maybe we end up getting smoked in a decent snow growth zone here. 

[Hoth]

Looks like recon is inbound to sniff around.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea my bad 

I went back and looked, Its just 24hr like Will mentioned., The NCAR ensembles gave you total, I miss them.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Stay NW or down towards Ashland/Mili, PI and CAR won't see as much with this one.

In St Agatha, 6-12 inches forecast For here.

 

same for at home in my town in CT.  So I’ll probably  see the same here, as at home.   

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

In St Agatha, 6-12 inches forecast For here.

 

same for at home in my town in CT.  So I’ll probably  see the same here, as at home.   

Riding should be better on the portage side if there grooming, Border side not as much all the way to Ft Kent, I'm heading back to Eustis/Jackman saturday.

[Amped]

HRDPS looks halfway between the GFS and the NAM, so does the CMC and the HRRR.  Probably best to toss the NAM and GFS.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

If you think about the phase between the jets, wouldn't the phase show up from the surface to the mid levels first and not mid levels to the surface, because on the surface, 925mb, 850mb and 700mb those maps of the low show an absorption already of the low over the Great Lakes and the last part of the phase to complete is the mid level lows

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Amped said:

HRDPS looks halfway between the GFS and the NAM, so does the CMC and the HRRR.  Probably best to toss the NAM and GFS.

Except the EURO supports the NAM more than the GFS....as does all of the mesoscale guidance.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dryslot said:

I'm heading back to Eustis/Jackman saturday.

Nice!!

 

Already put on 350, hoping for another 150 for tmrw before the snow sets in up here in the evening.  

 

This is gonba extend the season even longer up here, and for Jackman/Eustis as well!

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Unlike JUNO in 2015, Skylar should bring NYC more QPF, just a question of how much snow accumulates in the city

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Ray, the camp of the EURO and NAM will beat out everyone else with the support of the mesoscale models

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Nice!!

 

Already put on 350, hoping for another 150 for tmrw before the snow sets in up here in the evening.  

 

This is gonba extend the season even longer up here, and for Jackman/Eustis as well!

There was a lot of snow except some of the higher spots got blown off and we ran into some logging.

[wxsniss]

Honestly hard to find something to grab onto to help us nowcast this in the next few hours

Such a complex interaction aloft, and at the surface the exact location of the low does not seem to correlate with impact... at least within the next 6 hours

For example by 12z Tuesday morning, the GFS is actually more northwest than the NAM...

Which makes another point: GFS qpf distribution is complete garbage. I'm confident in leaning towards NAM/RGEM/HRRR/RAP at this point over GFS. Also easy to get lost because it's infrequent, but Euro steadily ticked up for 3 runs in a row.

 

 

[NYCGreg]

Big difference is this one is occurring with marginal temps in March; that one was with great temps in January.  Besides, I can deal with this one much better because I was never forecasted to receive two to three feet.

[dryslot]

The GFS has been the eastern outlier where the Nam has support.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Ray, the camp of the EURO and NAM will beat out everyone else with the support of the mesoscale models

I agree...EURO may very well tic east, but that shouldn't really matter for us.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

crankywxguy at it again, still adamant it sweeps eastward unlike what the models continue to show 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Honestly hard to find something to grab onto to help us nowcast this in the next few hours

Such a complex interaction aloft, and at the surface the exact location of the low does not seem to correlate with impact... at least within the next 6 hours

For example by 12z Tuesday morning, the GFS is actually more northwest than the NAM...

Which makes another point: GFS qpf distribution is complete garbage. I'm confident in leaning towards NAM/RGEM/HRRR/RAP at this point over GFS. Also easy to get lost because it's infrequent, but Euro steadily ticked up for 3 runs in a row.

 

 

Dude, just extrapolate the RAD....that death band looks to camp out between 128 and 495.

[ORH_wxman]

03z RPM is def slower than 00z too...prob a good 2 hours slower.

[The 4 Seasons]

who really cares what he says? he, nor any of us can influence the outcome.

RPM more stout again with the 3Z run.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, just extrapolate the RAD....that death band looks to camp out between 128 and 495.

Yeah

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

crankywxguy at it again, still adamant it sweeps eastward unlike what the models continue to show 

Who cares, enough of this cranky....he’s a nobody who all of the sudden is getting noticed. 

[Berlin1926]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nice!!

 

Already put on 350, hoping for another 150 for tmrw before the snow sets in up here in the evening.  

 

This is gonba extend the season even longer up here, and for Jackman/Eustis as well!

Eat at Lakeview.  You on Van Buren Lake?  Say hello to the Cyrs and Dionnes.