JC-CT Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: 3k NAM would be a top 10 snowstorm easily. I was about to scold you for gross exaggeration, but then I took a look at 500mb and there is really no argument that you are correct. Verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said: N. Litchfield county has got a ton of snow this season, just this month they got 6-8, then 16-28 last storm, now could be looking at another 6-12ish Not really bro I'm about 15-20 BN,. maybe far NW Litchfield county, but I'm at 61 i think, avg around 80 ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I think high resolution beyond short range is subject to more noise so for this time frame I’d trust neither (NAM) but the 12k more. Thanks. Pulling for 3k so Washington can join in the fun too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: 2’ at the Canal. 1-2’ river east. We R E 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Which is more realistic, 3k or 12k NAM. 3k is a typical Washington to Boston classic. I'm actually rather surprised that there is that much variation through those mesh differences... Almost head scratching why was we get smaller resolution we are ending up with a westward lean - hmm. I need to think about that one. From my experience, usually, these higher resolution models don't really change those types of aspects; they're better for things like storm component/detailing, such as winds...QPF .. etc. I dunno. Not sure what to make of that. I mean I could go science fiction author and say it's convective sequencing where the off-the-charts q-vector forcing first moves over the interface between land/fresh polar air and the west atl heat source... and in fact, there may be something more than fiction about that... but I am less than certain what physical differences there are in these 3 versus 12 versus 32 km runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: We R E What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Not that it means anything, but for fun: the jackpot for snow between the first and second storms moved 80 miles ENE from Schoharie County to southern Vermont. 80 miles further is smack on to Manchester, and given how the FGEN set up last time, would extend down just west of Boston. NAM 3k FTW? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: From my experience, usually, these higher resolution models don't really change those types of aspects; they're better for things like storm component/detailing, such as winds...QPF .. etc. That's not my experience with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm actually rather surprised that there is that much variation through those mesh changes... Almost head scratching why was we get smaller resolution we are ending up with a westward lean - hmm. I need to think about that one. From my experience, usually, these higher resolution models don't really change those types of aspects; they're better for things like storm component/detailing, such as winds...QPF .. etc. I dunno. Not sure what to make of that. I mean I could go science fiction author and say it's convective sequencing where the off-the-charts q-vector forcing first moves over the interface between land/fresh polar air and the west atl heat source... and in fact, there may be something more than fiction about that... but I am less than certain what physical differences there are in these 3 versus 12 versus 32 km runs. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not quite as extreme but it reminds me (meteorologically...not from memory as I'm not old enough) of the roughly 2 week period between Jan 21-Feb 6, 1978...just kept getting dynamic bomb solutions out of seemingly every threat. Very high dynamics in each system. Also had a rotting NAO block much of the time. I remember that period well. January 21rst storm was the biggest snowfall in Boston history then the Blizzard of 78 two weeks later. I was a college student at the University of MD and salivated listening to scratchy distant WBZ broadcast what was going on up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Out riding in the NW territory of Maine, Looks like it’s on!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: What? “We River East” DIT 101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: “We River East” DIT 101 NAM was fine through the berks. 3km even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 hour ago, CTWeatherFreak said: Lol.. Have to ask.. When is 3-6 not serious snow for NYC? in the new era of the past 15-20 years when 1-2 footers have become commonplace they are sharing similar company with esne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, ariof said: Not that it means anything, but for fun: the jackpot for snow between the first and second storms moved 80 miles ENE from Schoharie County to southern Vermont. 80 miles further is smack on to Manchester, and given how the FGEN set up last time, would extend down just west of Boston. NAM 3k FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said: in the new era of the past 15-20 years when 1-2 footers have become commonplace they are sharing similar company with esne 3-6 has never been anything more than a moderate event. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not turning it down but it’s forgettable bs what’s being modeled for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: That's not my experience with the NAM. Just so's we be clear yo - I'm not talking about the NAM in comparison to other guidance. I'm talking about the 3, 12 and 32 KM version of the NAM. But like I said, ...just my experience. I must admit that I do not look at those finer meshed variations of the NAM on every event- it is entirely possible that the times I have, happened to collocate the low position similarly albeit coincidentally. But I was aware of this... I was thinking ever time, well... they're not likely to place the low differently, just the attributes ...and seemed to always be the case. In this situation, the finer the mesh, the more west the low position. That may be completely understandable from a physics perspective/convective loading and so forth .. If so, could be a sign of where this thing is head in other guidance. The Euro tonight is going to be pretty heavily sought after as a guidance source to put in nicely - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Maybe we can make national grid go bankrupt. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, JC-CT said: What? River east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Maybe we can make national grid go bankrupt. Powder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Maybe we can make national grid go bankrupt. They’re not going anywhere. Wait for the rate hikes lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Just so's we be clear yo - I'm not talking about the NAM in comparison to other guidance. I'm talking about the 3, 12 and 32 KM version of the NAM. But like I said, ...just my experience. I must admit that I do not look at those finer meshed variations of the NAM on every event- it is entirely possible that the times I have, happened to collocate the low position similarly albeit coincidentally. But I was aware of this... I was thinking ever time, well... they're not likely to place the low differently, just the attributes ...and seemed to always be the case. In this situation, the finer the mesh, the more west the low position. That may be completely understandable from a physics perspective/convective loading and so forth .. If so, could be a sign of where this thing is head in other guidance. The Euro tonight is going to be pretty heavily sought after as a guidance source to put in nicely - No I got you. I'm saying I've noticed the 3km will sometimes show a completely different solution than the 12km, to the point where you scratch your head and wonder if they are really the same model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Lol utilities. National Grid delivers me gas and eversource electric. Used to be NStar and before that Boston Edison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Let’s talk about winds. 12km NAM is sayin 20-25 kt 10 M winds at the height (by me). Thoughts on wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 This as modeled is a tide and wind event in addition to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Low astronomical tides right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 WSW for West Virginia and Virginia. This is for snow Sunday and Monday. Is that related to this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 JB comparing it to Jan 1996 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Love the trends today. I don't need to jack, just want enough to play outside with my kids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, rnaude241 said: Love the trends today. I don't need to jack, just want enough to play outside with my kids. That’s really sweet. We’ll take your JP lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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