showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Seeing a much quicker transfer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The handoff goes from mountains of western md to the coast instead of northwestern pa to the coast. Huge differences so far. Don't think it's to much of a gamble to say it's gonna be better for people further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: Another 150 mile shift in the next 24 hours and maybe we can start talking inches instead of flakes. 12z Nam's had plenty of inches for areas north and east of DCA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 fun.. maybe it's the NAM's warm bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Light snow mixed with rain in NE MD at hr 42... probably near mappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, MD Snow said: The handoff goes from mountains of western md to the coast instead of northwestern pa to the coast. Huge differences so far. Don't think it's to much of a gamble to say it's gonna be better for people further south. Think it's going to come down to whether the 500 low develops quick enough to capture the surface low and pull it back. At this time we are seeing the progression at 500s coming in slower when we need quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: 12z Nam's had plenty of inches for areas north and east of DCA... sorry a little MBY bias in that comment. Nice to see a positive trend even it is the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Looks good, maybe we can get a blizzard of '96 shift in last few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Light snow mixed with rain in NE MD at hr 42... probably near mappy Def much further SW with QPF field comparing 18z at 42 with 12z at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Def further SW with QPF comparing 18z at 42 with 12z at 48 I know it's the NAM and was already out on it's own. But what happens if it's on to something? Huge implications for the Northeast. Major blizzard for everyone...except us...but what happens if it were on to something and trended just a little further south with the handoff from the primary to the coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 ramping up too far NE imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: I know it's the NAM and was already out on it's own. But what happens if it's on to something? Huge implications for the Northeast. Major blizzard for everyone...except us... Yeah but it's still quite jumpy with the axis of heaviest snow...hard to take it too seriously until it settles a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: I know it's the NAM and was already out on it's own. But what happens if it's on to something? Huge implications for the Northeast. Major blizzard for everyone...except us...but what happens if it were on to something and trended just a little further south with the handoff from the primary to the coastal? Though a touch farther south with the coastal low development would probably be ideal it is in a pretty good spot now. The biggest thing we need to see is a quicker progression at 500's. We need the closed low that forms to capture that surface low as close to the MD/Del shores as we can get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The low is further east than 12z. Affects the wind field too, down at least 10mph on the gust product from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 doesn't look like the NAM is going to do it. Made a shift the wrong way at the H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 -NAO storms are Mid-Atlantic, not SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 We're still 48 hrs until this thing is fully cranked up. Still got some time. Either way, should be fun to watch even if we don't end up with anything to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 LOL S NJ crushed with a foot of snow... interesting run of the 18z NAM as a whole... but h5 closes off too late for us... we need it to close off a bit earlier as @showmethesnow stated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Looks about right for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Looks about right for us. Hits that Maryland Force field. We are know that Garrett County is not part of Maryland when it comes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 even with the primary low being way more south.....we still cant win....no matter what happens..we still end up getting shutout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 27 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Another 150 mile shift in the next 24 hours and maybe we can start talking inches instead of flakes. you are still relying on dynamic cooling to give you that snow. which isn't a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 LWX afternoon disco .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will continue to track through the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley Thursday. The warm front associated with this system will likely stall out near the Potomac Highlands into central Virginia. Increased isentropic lift will cause rain to overspread the CWA from southwest to northeast during the morning hours. Periods of rain will continue during the afternoon as well. Rainfall amounts close to a quarter inch are most likely during this time. The low will pass by to our north Thursday night and it will also be transferring its energy to a coastal low off the New Jersey Coast. The cold front associated with the primary low to our north will pass through our area Thursday night...first across Potomac Highlands and central Virginia during the evening...and then across the Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas after midnight. More showers are expected along and ahead of the cold frontal passage. The coastal low will rapidly intensify as it interacts with a closed off upper- level low that will be approaching from the west. The rapid intensification will cause a strong pressure gradient to develop over the area and this will lead to strong winds behind the cold frontal passage. Latest guidance continues to show a strong mixing layer close to 3-5kt developing from the cold advection behind the cold front with winds around 50 to 70 knots at the top of the mixing layer. Wind gusts around 60 mph are possible behind the cold front Thursday night. The low will continue to intensify as it remains nearly stationary off the New Jersey coast Friday before slowly moving off to the east Friday night through Saturday. More strong winds are expected Friday into Friday night. Latest nam/gfs bufkit shows 50 to 70 knots at the top of the mixing layer. The strong gradient...deep mixing layer and downsloping northwest flow will cause the potential for winds to gust around 60 mph at the surface. A High Wind Watch is in effect from later Thursday night through Friday night. A prolonged period of strong winds and already saturated ground poses a significant threat for wind damage across the entire area. Now is a good time to secure lightweight objects outside, and check flashlights and batteries as well as other items needed in a power outage. Also, stay tuned to the latest forecasts for updates. Also of note is that upslope snow is expected to develop late Thursday night and continue through Friday. Accumulating snow is expected along and west of the Allegheny Front. Wrap around moisture from the coastal low may make it into northern Maryland Friday. Rain and snow showers are possible across this area. Latest thinking is that confidence for accumulating snow is low due to warmer boundary layer temps but not completely out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: you are still relying on dynamic cooling to give you that snow. which isn't a lock. At this point I'm rooting for anything possible in the next two weeks including the windstorm flurries. The golf portion of my name takes full effect come mid March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3k is sluggish on TT but what panels have shown up indicate at least some snow still gets into MD early Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ji said: even with the primary low being way more south.....we still cant win....no matter what happens..we still end up getting shutout We haven’t been in this game for several days so why be upset. Euro and GFS are not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 18z 3km NAM still gets snow to DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: 3k is sluggish on TT but what panels have shown up indicate at least some snow still gets into MD early Friday. yes, yes it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Pretty sharp cutoff -- but that's 4" IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ji said: even with the primary low being way more south.....we still cant win....no matter what happens..we still end up getting shutout It's south but also east. And the driving factor for us is the upper low not the surface. Everyone was looking at the surface and celebrating and showme was rightfully pointing out that's the h5 was going the wrong way and that's all that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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