-NAO Coastal Bomb March 1-3, 2018 Disco

[friedmators]

So it seems like we need the transfer to complete before using these meso models so they have something solid to initialize off of. I can buy that.


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[EasternLI]

2013 was 1"+ rain to about a foot of snow over here. Pretty much the same as my boxing day experience actually.

[Rtd208]

Started an Obs thread.

 

[USCG RS]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

where exactly are they going to fly into the storm - where will it be located ? what time ?

Sorry, just saw this.

 

000
NOUS42 KNHC 281702
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EST WED 28 FEBRUARY 2018
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z MARCH 2018
         WSPOD NUMBER.....17-090

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
       A. A61/ DROP 8 (39.1N 72.1W)/ 02/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 03WSA TRACK61
       C. 01/1745Z
       D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 02/0200Z

 

There will be ten drops with this mission. It will conclude at 0200z, so it may not have all the data at 00z. Furthermore, the control point is 39.1N 72.1W, which is the point where the mission will roughly center around. 

[Snowlover11]

can we talk about past storms in the banter thread?

[SnowGoose69]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Generally when we beat snowfall guidance, it's when the storm starts out as snow. Very rare to get a surprise warning level event at the coast when it begins as 1-2 inches of rain first. 

12/25/02 is actually the only storm on record where NYC saw at least 1 inch of rain and 5 or more inches of snow.

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

12/25/02 is actually the only storm on record where NYC saw at least 1 inch of rain and 5 or more inches of snow.

Snowicane? March 1888?

[WeatherFeen2000]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It's very rare along the coast to get more than a slushy C-2 on the colder surfaces following an extended interval of heavy rain.  

These are all storms that rained a good amount and snowed and the least snow was 5 inches which happened the record El Nino year March 22nd 1998

Also the other dates had much bigger snowfalls after a bunch of rain

 

February 3rd 2013
February 26-26 2010
March 5th 2015

April 7 2003
November 7th 2012
March 22nd 1998

 

I'm sure there's more before I moved to America from Luxemburg. I moved to New York back in the summer of 1995 But that doesn't seem that rare especially in the 2000's

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Snowicane? March 1888?

I honestly don't remember.  

[sferic]

If we want good snow at the coast what is one of the first things we want to see on tonight's 0z nam?

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[Ja643y]

30 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I've noticed DirecTV usualy only goes out in EXTREMELY heavy rain. Usually it has to be the tropical type downpours that you get in summer t-storms. It almost never goes out in heavy rain during the winter because heavy rain in winter is lower end heavy rain. I doubt the DirecTV will go out during this storm but we'll see.

The great thing about DirecTV,  even if it goes out, you have the App... if connected to WiFi in your house, you have almost every channel on the App anyway even IF (mine rarely ever goes out) the satellite is out!

[friedmators]

If we want good snow at the coast what is one of the first things we want to see on tonight's 0z nam?

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

The surface low not where the rap/hrrr has it


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[NorthShoreWx]

6 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Disregard my last post about the 3k snow map

3k Nam

The run shows 6-12 for central and south Jersey, 3-6 for Manhattan, 12 inches for central LI, 4-8 for the south shore of NYC

Very weird

With the occluding low, there are going to be "bubbles" of air wrapping around so that 850s could be all over the place with little regard to north- south.  The 3k is trying to depict this and you can see the result on the 850charts and in some of the NAM p-type charts (blob of snow over the ocean south of LI while LI and NYC rain, etc ), but queue the butterfly effect.  It may be correct in a general sense, but if it pins the details down, it's a heckofa model.

 

 

[friedmators]

The great thing about DirecTV,  even if it goes out, you have the App... if connected to WiFi in your house, you have almost every channel on the App anyway even IF (mine rarely ever goes out) the satellite is out!

Lost mine two Saturday’s ago with that heavy burst we got. Snow actually piled up on it and killed the signal.


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[Rjay]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

December 2002 was the last inch of rain in NYC followed by 5" of snow.

Thanks!

[jm1220]

At least in Long Beach, Snowicane 2010 was over 1" of rain followed by 10-11" of snow. It was a quick flash over, then a brief dry period and then heavy snow.

[Brasiluvsnow]

6 minutes ago, friedmators said:

Lost mine two Saturday’s ago with that heavy burst we got. Snow actually piled up on it and killed the signal.


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same here that was the first time that ever happened to me-----now back to THIS storm !!!!!!!

[ILoveWinter]

This is a great storm to track as the upside is big compared to what’s expected snow wise (in the city). Will be interesting to see where the CCB sets up and whether the wonders of evap cooling will sneak in some some surprises for the immediate metro. If not then it will just be as expected - it’s essentially a tie-win scenario.

[Stormlover74]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

At least in Long Beach, Snowicane 2010 was over 1" of rain followed by 10-11" of snow. It was a quick flash over, then a brief dry period and then heavy snow.

It was in nyc as well. There may have been a break after the changeover before the heavy snow though.

[Rjay]

26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

At least in Long Beach, Snowicane 2010 was over 1" of rain followed by 10-11" of snow. It was a quick flash over, then a brief dry period and then heavy snow.

I thought we had over 2" of rain before the changeover.  Not positive.  Wish that Wantagh mesonet was around back then.  

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It was in nyc as well. There may have been a break after the changeover before the heavy snow though.

I remember a break here for several hours. 

[jm1220]

19 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I thought we had over 2" of rain before the changeover.  Not positive.  Wish that Wantagh mesonet was around back then.  

May have been 2" of rain. I just remember commuting west on the LIRR and it suddenly flipping to snow around Jamaica and being a blizzard by Woodside. On the way back, the R/S line essentially followed me, and it crashed to snow in Long Beach. After maybe an inch it stopped, then soon after and especially that night there was +SN in the CCB. Just after dawn, the accumulating snow shut off. 

[sferic]

In an hour when the 0Z suite begins with the NAM this should be fun especially if there are positive trends for snow on the coast.

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, sferic said:

In an hour when the 0Z suite begins with the NAM this should be fun especially if there are positive trends for snow on the coast.

Actually we need positive trends from the other models

[sferic]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Actually we need positive trends from the other models

True, but I would think we'd want the suite to start off positively with the NAM then the GFS then the rest.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, sferic said:

True, but I would think we'd want the suite to start off positively with the NAM then the GFS then the rest.

Globals are useless this close

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

can we talk about past storms in the banter thread?

Yeah that stuff is history keep it in banter

[Brasiluvsnow]

I watched Bernies latest video,,,,he showed how hard it was snowing in Detroit today --said it was 34 or 36 degrees at the time of video and started snowing at noon and around 5 pm they had 5  inches and the totals had not been updated---thats headed this way. Does anyone know if the moisture is still over performing in areas that the models had predicted at this time frame ?

[weathermedic]

Coastal flood warnings hoisted for the Fri overnight into Sat AM high tide cycles for the area. A few locations forecast to reach major flooding levels (Freeport, Pt. Lookout, East Rockaway Inlet, Lindenhurst) during the Sat morning cycle.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

30 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I watched Bernies latest video,,,,he showed how hard it was snowing in Detroit today --said it was 34 or 36 degrees at the time of video and started snowing at noon and around 5 pm they had 5  inches and the totals had not been updated---thats headed this way. Does anyone know if the moisture is still over performing in areas that the models had predicted at this time frame ?

 

NAM has a pretty good handle so far.  It’s 18z forecast for 9 hours is pretty much on the button at the moment, but precip is overperforming in certain parts like over here....eastern PA.  

Im post limited, so saving my next post for when the changeover occurs here...I’m thinking by midnight.

many areas in northern PA have already switched over to snow...even though 850 0 line is suppose to still b back in Ohio. Bgm is very close to snow or may already be.  Also unexpected.