-NAO Coastal Bomb March 1-3, 2018 Disco

[Dan76]

4 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Coastal flood warnings hoisted for the Fri overnight into Sat AM high tide cycles for the area. A few locations forecast to reach major flooding levels (Freeport, Pt. Lookout, East Rockaway Inlet, Lindenhurst) during the Sat morning cycle.

I don't know about major, moderate yes tide was not in the streets in freeport today and the winds are supposed to be NW tomorrow evening.

 

Fri

N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming NW 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to less than 1 nm in the afternoon.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

11 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

I don't know about major, moderate yes tide was not in the streets in freeport today and the winds are supposed to be NW tomorrow evening.

 

Fri

N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming NW 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to less than 1 nm in the afternoon.

I don’t think your getting the whole picture. The giant circulation of the storm has an enernous area of easterly fetch. This will build a fully developed sea state with waves 50’+ offshore. These waves will become a long period swell. Swells with a period over 15 seconds have tremendous energy. They in turn will add to the water run up by blocking water from existing from the inlets. We saw this with major beach wash over and flooding during jose this past September 

 

[friedmators]

The NAM still wants to flip us by 10 am. But loses dynamics faster and only 6”. CNJ area. Inch or two of slop sounds about right.


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[Dan76]

7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I don’t think your getting the whole picture. The giant circulation of the storm had an enernous area of easterly fetch. This will build a fully developed sea state with waves 50’+ offshore. These waves will become a long period swell. Swells with a period over 15 seconds have tremendous energy. They in turn will add to the water run up by blocking water from existing from the inlets. We saw this with major beach wash over and flooding during jose this past September 

 

Could be wrong but NWS has moderate in their discussion with low probability of major we will see

 

Surge guidance has come into better agreement with moderate
coastal flood thresholds being reached along the southern bays
of Nassau County and Jamaica Bay for Friday morning high tides.
Elsewhere generally minor coastal impacts expected.

There is quite a bit of model spread for the Friday Night high
tidal cycle, with competing factors of increasing energetic
easterly swells and ekman pumping versus strong offshore winds.
At this point a middle of the road approach has been continued,
with potential for moderate coastal flooding for the southern
bays of LI and Queens and twin forks of LI and even for locally
moderate impacts along the north shore of LI due to to 3 to 5
ft wave action. Elsewhere generally minor impacts are expected.

With only around 1 to 1 1/2 ft surge needed for minor flooding
and 2 to 2 1/2 ft for moderate flooding during the high tide
cycles Saturday into Saturday Night, the potential for several
tidal cycles of minor to moderate coastal flooding continues.
Ekman pumping and energetic easterly swell energy along with
weakening offshore flow should help water levels continue to
build along the coast. It is not out of the question that this
threat continues into Sunday. At this time there is only a low
probability of isolated major coastal flooding during Saturday
high tides for the south shore bays

[weathermedic]

Just now, Dan76 said:

Could be wrong but NWS has moderate in their discussion with low probability of major we will see

 

Surge guidance has come into better agreement with moderate
coastal flood thresholds being reached along the southern bays
of Nassau County and Jamaica Bay for Friday morning high tides.
Elsewhere generally minor coastal impacts expected.

There is quite a bit of model spread for the Friday Night high
tidal cycle, with competing factors of increasing energetic
easterly swells and ekman pumping versus strong offshore winds.
At this point a middle of the road approach has been continued,
with potential for moderate coastal flooding for the southern
bays of LI and Queens and twin forks of LI and even for locally
moderate impacts along the north shore of LI due to to 3 to 5
ft wave action. Elsewhere generally minor impacts are expected.

With only around 1 to 1 1/2 ft surge needed for minor flooding
and 2 to 2 1/2 ft for moderate flooding during the high tide
cycles Saturday into Saturday Night, the potential for several
tidal cycles of minor to moderate coastal flooding continues.
Ekman pumping and energetic easterly swell energy along with
weakening offshore flow should help water levels continue to
build along the coast. It is not out of the question that this
threat continues into Sunday. At this time there is only a low
probability of isolated major coastal flooding during Saturday
high tides for the south shore bays

That discussion was out at 7:03pm. The warnings came out at 8:48pm. They will probably update their discussion before midnight.

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

NAM finally caved. This is a sloppy 1-3” on the backend, nothing more. Winds should be impressive though.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, friedmators said:

The NAM still wants to flip us by 10 am. But loses dynamics faster and only 6”. CNJ area. Inch or two of slop sounds about right.


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Nam shows several inches for the area

[MJO812]

Nam shows 6 + for central Jersey lol

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Nam shows 6 + for central Jersey lol

Only for a small area by the coast. 

[MJO812]

Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Only for a small area by the coast. 

Central Jersey

[MJO812]

3k Nam shows 3-5 for NYC area and 6+ for the same area in central NJ

[Dan76]

5 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

That discussion was out at 7:03pm. The warnings came out at 8:48pm. They will probably update their discussion before midnight.

Changed more fun

The probability of major coastal
flooding for the south shore bays on Saturday has increased.

 

[Dan76]

Camera now http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065

[SnowGoose69]

There is a better chance of significant snows in NYC now than most of SNE

[sferic]

Is the OZ Nam better than the 18Z so far?

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There is a better chance of significant snows in NYC now than most of SNE

Nam shows them all rain

[friedmators]

Idk I can’t imagine the rap or hrrr are that wrong this close. 80 and north special


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[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, friedmators said:

Idk I can’t imagine the rap or hrrr are that wrong this close. 80 and north special


.

 

They were brutal at this range in the March event last year.  Its generally only reliable 4-6 hours out in highly marginal cases like this

[jm1220]

Might be a sneaky 925mb warm layer that takes forever to mix out. That could be something to watch tomorrow. It’s been the bane of several a potential snowstorm for me.

[tempestatis014]

It almost seems as though the storm might scoot back towards the Jersey shore before it makes it's slow departure too the East. Which means that any possible changeover to snow might go back to rain, and maybe even higher wind gusts.

[Dan76]

From Mid Atl        60k w/o power in Cleveland Metro already.

[SnoSki14]

Could see a lot of power outages if those 60mph+ gusts verify. Wet February plus another 1"+ of rain tonight will make it easier to take some trees down. 

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, friedmators said:

Idk I can’t imagine the rap or hrrr are that wrong this close. 80 and north special


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We have seen the models wrong this close to an event this winter.

[MJO812]

Isotherm thinks 2-4 for NYC with the potential for more

[hudsonvalley21]

[qg_omega]

38 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Isotherm thinks 2-4 for NYC with the potential for more

I'm going with Upton at less than one inch for NYC on the grass at the very end

[jm1220]

My final call: We’ll see what happens south and east of 287. I’ll be happy if I end up with over an inch. I can see how it happens but I’m pessimistic. Seems like these sneaky warm layers below 850 show up on the modeling and keep it rain or slop. Plus a lot of the heavy stuff in the CCB will be in the daytime. 

[sferic]

My thoughts: plenty of surprises with this storm most likely. There is no real handle on this and it will make up its own rules as it progresses.

[friedmators]

My opinion. No one south of 80 gets anything to accumulate. We might snow for a few hours with white rain but at the end of the day nothing sticks anywhere.


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[jm1220]

Seems like the NAM is caving in to the warmer models too. Never a good sign for a colder outcome. Something always messing it up. Again, CCBs are always very fickle. It’ll be weird seeing heavy rain from a developed CCB on March 2nd but it is what it is.