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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Wow he was out in the allagash on those dirt roads during that one then...I've sledded out to St. Pamphlet a time or two...nothing out there for miles except those roads...beautiful country for sure, but remote area no doubt.  Ya, he wasn't getting back to ST. Francis in that type of snow in a truck...Mountain/powder sleds of today for sure...but no way any wheeled vehicle is going through snow of that magnitude being in that remote an area.  

 

Neat story Tamarack..thanks for sharing.

Great memories - love to brag them up.  And since the Ft. Kent/Estcourt/St.-Pamphile triangle surrounded my workspace 1976-85, there were plenty of stories.  And given the magnitude of the snow-clearing iron there, Jeff (not that Jeff) was probably able to drive home Saturday afternoon - Sunday morning latest. 

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47 minutes ago, tamarack said:

In addition, it's the only snowstorm I can recall that pounded CHI, NYC and CAR.  Normally, storms that hit the first 2 keep heading east, and that was predicted for 1982 - less than 6 hours before they had SN+ the CAR forecast was for cold, windy with flurries.  26.3" of flurries.
 

It's funny that there was actually an event up there on that date, though...I just pulled a random date from tamarack's prime out of my rear.

:lol::weenie::lol:

I was 12 years old and if I remember correctly that was the storm where I picked up a good 14" or so where I was living ...Just south of Albany.
Maybe more?  

Will with the snow map?

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7 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

I was 12 years old and if I remember correctly that was the storm where I picked up a good 14" or so where I was living ...Just south of Albany.
Maybe more?  

Will with the snow map?

I had just turned 14 a couple weeks before(8th grade)...it was truly an event to remember for sure.  I'd love another one like it soon.

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NUMBER ONE  those that say cant get good snowstorm in april  is wrong. With this weather pattern is very goo likely chance of a good snowstorm coming to sne area during next two weeks of april .  very cold air during next two weeks of april for sne area and the northeast area.

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Nobody said we can't get a good snowstorm in early April.  But there is never a "very good chance" that you get one in April...odds are always stacked way against us at this time.  So there is a much better chance you miss out than score.  And chances are we miss out this April as well....just the way the odds are at this very late juncture.

 

And can you please take the time to proofread your posts and put some punctuation into them...

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17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nobody said we can't get a good snowstorm in early April.  But there is never a "very good chance" that you get one in April...odds are always stacked way against us at this time.  So there is a much better chance you miss out than score.  And chances are we miss out this April as well....just the way the odds are at this very late juncture.

 

And can you please take the time to proofread your posts and put some punctuation into them...

Hey Wolfie easy the man is a classic here and has some severe disabilities 

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57 minutes ago, blizzard24 said:

NUMBER ONE  those that say cant get good snowstorm in april  is wrong. With this weather pattern is very goo likely chance of a good snowstorm coming to sne area during next two weeks of april .  very cold air during next two weeks of april for sne area and the northeast area.

Have not seen anyone claiming that.  However, the odds aren't all that great; my area averages nearly 90"/year, and I've measured only 4 April storms over 4" in 19 years.  (Though the top 3 ranged from 11.2" to 18.5", so biggies - though rare - have happened.)

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3 hours ago, tamarack said:

Here in the foothills, where late season snow should be more common, 17 of our 19 Aprils here have failed to produce a snowfall greater than 4". 

 

40 minutes ago, tamarack said:

...the odds aren't all that great; my area averages nearly 90"/year, and I've measured only 4 April storms over 4" in 19 years.  (Though the top 3 ranged from 11.2" to 18.5", so biggies - though rare - have happened.)

Well as usual, Tamarack is always offering up fun ways to use one’s snow data, in this case “April storms over 4 inches”.  Our location isn’t particularly snowy in April with the low elevation, but that frequency does seem surprisingly sparse for a place with that snowfall average (could just be a bad stretch I guess).  Anyway, running the numbers I find seven storms of 4” or more in April in my 11 years of data.  Two did fall in the same year, but in any event, the frequency of getting a ≥4” storm in April is around 64% with the data I have thus far.  Interestingly, we’ve had a recent “better than average” run in that department, with April storms of 4” or greater in each of the past four seasons.  We’re therefore probably not “due” this year, although of course the stats don’t really work that way.  If we’re running at that rate down here in the valley though, the numbers for the higher elevations around here have to be up near 100% in frequency for those events.  That’s not actually surprising really, but I’d say that, on top of the deep snowpack, is one of the reasons we like April.

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Have not seen anyone claiming that.  However, the odds aren't all that great; my area averages nearly 90"/year, and I've measured only 4 April storms over 4" in 19 years.  (Though the top 3 ranged from 11.2" to 18.5", so biggies - though rare - have happened.)

ORH has only seen 2 snowstorms over 4 inches in the past 15 years in April. April 3, 2016 and then April 4, 2016. Two back to back events. Though Mar 31-Apr 1, 2017 and the same dates in 2011 produced a snowstorm over 4 inches, but the actual snow on April 1st past midnight was under 4 inches.

The period from 1982-1997 though saw 5 April events of 4"+.

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