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Feb 7th snow threat


UlsterCountySnowZ

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4 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

My winds are out of the due East,very light at 2-4mph but east nonetheless.

likely due to your elevation....you're closer to the warm air than the coast. cold air will be hardest to budge in valleys and low-lying spots (where winds should stay N/NE longest).

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3 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

likely due to your elevation....you're closer to the warm air than the coast. cold air will be hardest to budge in valleys and low-lying spots (where winds should stay N/NE longest).

Yup, looks like one of the home weather stations at the bottom of the hill is still east rather than up here where it just shifted to ESE.

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19 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

12Z NAM valid at 15Z is 30-50 degrees too far east with 10m winds at the three major airports; also making for a warm bias in 2m temps. Nearly all guidance has this bias today, which is why nowcasting >> model watching in these scenarios. the shallow arctic air that came in last night acts as a meso-high that helps keep winds more backed N/NE. adding fresh snow up north and a surface low track thru NYC should help lock those colder surface temps in longer than just about any guidance is suggesting. 

JFK and LGA at least as of now are 050-060.  060 is usually enough to go to rain jn these setups.  I’ve seen it where it’s precipitating exceptionally hard where you can hold frozen on 060 though 

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

JFK and LGA at least as of now are 050-060.  060 is usually enough to go to rain jn these setups.  I’ve seen it where it’s precipitating exceptionally hard where you can hold frozen on 060 though 

yeah, def think it will go to rain at jfk by noon and probably lga too. some high res has a mesoscale setup favoring backing winds at ewr and lga as the warm front approaches early to mid-afternoon, but we'll see. def think ewr could see freezing rain much later into the afternoon. 

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2 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Roads just went from snowcovered to sleet compacted and horrendous very quickly. 1.3" will probably do it here as we are 100% sleet now. Next couple hours before we go to plain rain is gonna be ugly.

I'm not sure we ever flip to plain rain given surface temps are a good 3-4 degrees colder than forecasted.

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