Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 minute ago, ma blizzard said: surface to ~900 mb is prob somewhere between 0.5 c to 1.5 c .. gonna take some time to dynamically cool this layer but Id say its encouraging that you are already under 34 It’s been a steady drop , Dew is 30. I just find it hard to believe it takes until 1:00 am to flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, 25thamendmentfan said: ginxie, Why should I apologize? You're the one posting on the internet saying he's putting out failed forecasts. You should be happy he posts on this site. He doesn't have to, or need to. He has plenty of weather watchers on social media. If I were a newly minted chief meteorologist in a top 30 market and I had some guy saying I was failing in my forecasts I certainly wouldn't be happy about it even if you are a valued, albeit needy, overly sensitive weather watcher. Why are you accusing me of bigotry? I know you love your backyard, but the news directors at the providence/Hartford/New haven tv stations could care less about your backyard when 90% of the dma lives an hour away from you. It's simply one of the realities of commercial television, just like in the New York city tv market news directors don't care about the upper reaches of Rockland or dutchess counties when millions live in the 5 boros and Bergen/Westchester/Fairfield. Do you believe your own B.S.. Ryan's reply to you is all we need to know. Take a hike Jack ,take your political B.S. to another forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m down to 33.5. But it seems like 925 is torched no? True, that looks warm through 8-11pm... but seems precipitation dependent. Like the HRRR cools ORH to 0C at 925mb as early as 8-9pm but then rise again with lighter precip at 10-11pm (showing how marginal it is). The model low level temps, wind and QPF fields show a SW upslope flow (which aids low level cooling) into your area up through Hubbdave on the eastern side of hills. We'll see, I bet you ramp up around midnight and run to around sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 I am actually at 33.8/32 right now with light rain....probably be stuck at 33 degrees for most of the night...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: True, that looks warm through 8-11pm... but seems precipitation dependent. Like the HRRR cools ORH to 0C at 925mb as early as 8-9pm but then rise again with lighter precip at 10-11pm (showing how marginal it is). The model low level temps, wind and QPF fields show a SW upslope flow into your area up through Hubbdave on the eastern side of hills. We'll see, I bet you ramp up around midnight and run to around sunrise. Let’s see what this bright banding does over the next hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s been a steady drop , Dew is 30. I just find it hard to believe it takes until 1:00 am to flip If you were up you might hear thunder. Nice instability sounding right over your noggin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Down to 34F now... rain has picked up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s been a steady drop , Dew is 30. I just find it hard to believe it takes until 1:00 am to flip just need to get heavier precip in faster Id think if you want to see an earlier flip as powdefreak noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Do you believe your own B.S.. Ryan's reply to you is all we need to know. Take a joke Jack ,take your political B.S. to another forum Ryan's as nice a guy as they come, but if he opened his weather cast each night discussing snow in tolland and moosup he'd be out of a job. An inch of snow and travel accidents on 91 and 95 in Hartford and New haven is more newsworthy than 5 inches in moosup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Flip is around 1am in NCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Still 37 here off a high of 44 with light rain. Yeah 925 is pretty warm perhaps some mixing under the heaviest radar returns in the highest terrain but mainly rain for most at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, 25thamendmentfan said: Ryan's as nice a guy as they come, but if he opened his weather cast each night discussing snow in tolland and moosup he'd be out of a job. An inch of snow and travel accidents on 91 and 95 in Hartford and New haven is more newsworthy than 5 inches in moosup. Yea 395 is just a rural backwoods road. You are as dumb as dirt. Were you harveyleonardfan? I have no idea how you evolved from dissing Ryan to being a TV analyst. I only said that Ryan has often underforecast the Eastern Hills, if you knew squat you would know 95% of Moosup is in a valley. If you knew squat you would also know what the hell I was referring too.Ryan replied to me saying yea the Eastern hills bordering RI would do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Flip is around 1am in NCT Now 33.1. If I rot at 32.6 and rain till 1:00 I’ll be very surprised. I know HRRR shows that , but I would think it’s sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Wish we were there. These are fun events to mico-analyze when you are talking only 500 feet of elevation difference could mean 5" at 32F vs. 2" at 34F. Everyone on here knows I get a hard on for mesoscale elevation stuff, ha ha. Yeah hopefully you give me that detail next time it’s an OE event here 38.7 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea 395 is just a rural backwoods road. You are as dumb as dirt. Were you harveyleonardfan? I have no idea how you evolved from dissing Ryan to being a TV analyst. I only said that Ryan has often underforecast the Eastern Hills, if you knew squat you would know 95% of Moosup is in a valley. If you knew squat you would also know what the hell I was referring too.Ryan replied to me saying yea the Eastern hills bordering RI would do better. You've called me Jack, now Harvey. I'm a woman. Women are as fascinated by weather as much as men are. We just don't cry when it doesn't snow. I'm not gonna play the sexist card because that's not my style. But I do wish more women were in this field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Now 33.1. If I rot at 32.6 and rain till 1:00 I’ll be very surprised. I know HRRR shows that , but I would think it’s sooner You are WAA a bit aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: You are WAA a bit aloft. So 1:00 am flip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 Well.. maybe it’ll be a few hours of zr on trees. 32.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1.3” snow with 0.12” w.e. this morning. 28.8F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Probably won't be that bad, but if it is, folks could be caught off guard. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/02/very-slippery-travel-possible-during.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Looks like the NWS BOX going for impacts rather than criteria, up to 1 inch of snow with no mention of ZR and 1-3 for the NE hills of CT...atta girl. That's how it should be. AM communte disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: What's the difference? The models could show 6-8" and you'd still expect 1-2". lol MPM is melted fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Excellent GIF, have to save that 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Excellent GIF, have to save that 1. Timing felt right. What are your thoughts down here? A little slop for the commute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 May not be a flash freeze but it will be pretty slick underneath the 1-2” overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 21 minutes ago, 25thamendmentfan said: You've called me Jack, now Harvey. I'm a woman. Women are as fascinated by weather as much as men are. We just don't cry when it doesn't snow. I'm not gonna play the sexist card because that's not my style. But I do wish more women were in this field. Harveyleonardfan is not Harvey. Thanks for letting me know women are into weather too, I will let my obsessed daughter know she is not alone, maybe send a DM to Heather Archambault and Eleanor , maybe one to Alice Bentley. And yea you are wrong again .I listened to my granddaughter b**ch for hours when the snow evaporated this month. She couldn't sled in my backyard and was pissed, but happy as a clam when she woke up to 8 inches in SECT. Go away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Why do you always have to make it about you? You're so sensitive. You get in dust-ups on a daily basis with a whole host of others, not limited to your evening battles with Ray. Chill, man. I know it's weather and it's the only weather you got but you don't have to take everything so personally, or freak out when you're criticized or when someone throws cold water on your over zealous, world coming to an end forecasts. Besides, this isn't your profession. you have great passion for life and weather. Try to enjoy it. And no, I'm not asking you to apologize for confidently predicting a dramatic change in the pattern to epic snows that will not be occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 I don't know might get a foot in my ten day period, that's a pretty dramatic change, let's see how the rest plays out for our local LR model hugging crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 Plymouth , CT at 800 feet is now snow . It’s coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, 25thamendmentfan said: Why do you always have to make it about you? You're so sensitive. You get in dust-ups on a daily basis with a whole host of others, not limited to your evening battles with Ray. Chill, man. I know it's weather and it's the only weather you got but you don't have to take everything so personally, or freak out when you're criticized or when someone throws cold water on your over zealous, world coming to an end forecasts. Besides, this isn't your profession. you have great passion for life and weather. Try to enjoy it. And no, I'm not asking you to apologize for confidently predicting a dramatic change in the pattern to epic snows that will not be occurring. Lol you have no idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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