Yeoman Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS has some support for a decent snow storm d8-10. Also supports all rain, rain to snow, snow to rain, freezing rain, sleet, and no precip at all. for the upteenth time this season.. time to give it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Glad i won’t be vested in this one. Seriously, I hope y’all get it. I honestly don’t even care at this point. I’ll follow from the beach in Cartagena. Are you working for Trip Advisor now? You've got more vacation days than carter's has liver pills.. I'm jelly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 GEPS is showing some small hits around the 17th, but generally less than an inch for DC. It seems more bullish on the period around the end of the month. Five members give DC at least 2" in the 22-25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 40 minutes ago, Yeoman said: for the upteenth time this season.. time to give it up Why? We're just tracking. If it fails so what. If it hits great. Why do you want others to give up? You're welcome to but in the last 11 years 3 times my only big snow of the year was in march. Given those facts why would I give up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Why? We're just tracking. If it fails so what. If it hits great. Why do you want others to give up? You're welcome to but in the last 11 years 3 times my only big snow of the year was in march. Given those facts why would I give up? Nah, yeoman is poking fun at others. I lol'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 @C.A.P.E. Yea man, that ens mean is a ok in my book. A +pna/-nao combo like that hasn't happened since Jan 2011. Couple more in a row like it and we'll prob start getting teased with blocked miller A fantasy storms. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Can we please get some well timed cold air to go with all the moisture. If I get 3 inchs of precip over 2 weeks in February and it's all liquid.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @C.A.P.E. Yea man, that ens mean is a ok in my book. A +pna/-nao combo like that hasn't happened since Jan 2011. Couple more in a row like it and we'll prob start getting teased with blocked miller A fantasy storms. Lol If things are going to go our way for the stretch run, the next few runs will feature lowering heights over the east, with the continued good look(maybe better) in the NA and out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: If things are going to go our way for the stretch run, the next few runs will feature lowering heights over the east, with the continued good look(maybe better) in the NA and out west. Chances are we'll get at least one wxporn bomb besides the cmc in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 46 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nah, yeoman is poking fun at others. I lol'd Sorry missed that one my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Why? We're just tracking. If it fails so what. If it hits great. Why do you want others to give up? You're welcome to but in the last 11 years 3 times my only big snow of the year was in march. Given those facts why would I give up? Its going to snow HARD in DC. Tracker will relax and enjoy the beach in Cartagena. We'll relax and enjoy getting shellacked by snow here in DC and all over the Mid Atlantic subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 If the SSW event is responsible for the modeled blocking I would think the -NAO should continue to progress down the line. Warming at 50mb continues to press into GL through the end of the gefs run. This has been pretty consistent for the past few days and it seems the models are picking up on the response. Man! That ridging in GL looks great on the gefs...It at least seems likely that we will at the very least see some transient blocking. Maybe my interpretation is wrong...feel free to correct me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 i did some excel work and filtered out the highest -NAO Days/Stretches since Winter of 2004 NAOWinter.xlsx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Couple of interesting discoveries November 2010---had a huge -NAO towards the end of the month Jan 2010 had a huge -NAO to start the month December 2009 had a huge -NAO Dec 12-14 right before our blizzard Lots of 2009-2010 days March 23-25 2013 had a big -NAO..did anything happen then? March 2005 seemed to be a big -NAO month but i think it was too big and things were suppressed Feb 25,2005 had a big -NAO and i think we had a noreaster that day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Well a totally different look on the GFS at 138 on the H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ji said: March 23-25 2013 had a big -NAO..did anything happen then? Sarcasm, right? 3/25/13 was the best real spring (after solstice) snowstorm in my lifetime. It stuck on roads even down in lower elevations of DC predawn and was a nice 3-5” in Montgomery County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Well a totally different look on the GFS at 138 on the H5Still snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Sarcasm, right? 3/25/13 was the best real spring (after solstice) snowstorm in my lifetime. It stuck on roads even down in lower elevations of DC predawn and was a nice 3-5” in Montgomery County. Oh yea. I remember now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 I find it encouraging that even with a different set up we still see snow next weekend. Comes in 24 hours earlier too. It's now 7 days away . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 I find it encouraging that even with a different set up we still see snow next weekend. Comes in 24 hours earlier too. It's now 7 days away .Would be funny if it snowed during a bad pattern after wasting cold patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Upper pattern is good for sneaky storm s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ji said: 13 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I find it encouraging that even with a different set up we still see snow next weekend. Comes in 24 hours earlier too. It's now 7 days away . Would be funny if it snowed during a bad pattern after wasting cold patterns Actually a fluke within a bad or so-so pattern is probably the most likely shot of getting snow in the remainder of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Y It’s great because the remainder of the run is what you might call a disaster..when Detroit is continually getting crushed you know is bad for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It’s great because the remainder of the run is what you might call a disaster..when Detroit is continually getting crushed you know is bad for us Not really sweating anything past 7 days anyway -- I just want to see continued improvements in trends run to run. I really think that the LR is going to be even more volatile than it already has been YTD until models have a better handle on how the SSW shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 I can definitely see this trending NW to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 EPS also seems to be warming up to the idea. 10 or so members have frozen precip through the area next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Fwiw EPS/GEFS continue to show general ridge/warmth hanging tough for the east in the LR, despite the nice look developing in the NA. GEFS has cold anomalies in the N central US, EPS a bit further NW days 10-15. Not sure how much influence the strat activity would be having during this period, but regardless, at this range- as we all know- nothing is certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 6z gfs:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 43 minutes ago, Ji said: 6z gfs:( Wave along a front on the 21st produces some snow though. Those always work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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