Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,390
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    scourt
    Newest Member
    scourt
    Joined
Queencitywx

Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Rah goes up again

969618A6-A137-4EC6-B79E-A498E3DAE753.jpeg

Could anyone provide a direct link to this particular product? The map portions are always blurry and pixelated once they're embedded in the forum.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hate to weenie out too bad, but the Hrrr is just crushing mby from 5am to 10am.  It's now got solid 3 to 4 inches total for all of Oconee, Pickens, and Greenville counties. 

 

HRRRSE_prec_snow_017.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, thess said:

Could anyone provide a direct link to this particular product? The map portions are always blurry and pixelated once they're embedded in the forum.

It's from their weather hazard briefing: http://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf

Edit: better versions of their snow maps here: http://www.weather.gov/rah/winter

 

StormTotalSnowWeb1.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I hate to weenie out too bad, but the Hrrr is just crushing mby from 5am to 10am.  It's now got solid 3 to 4 inches total for all of Oconee, Pickens, and Greenville counties. 

Pulling for y’all. Go get them. Seems like HRRR matches up well with other guidance QPF here.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said:

Yeah. I'm questioning the validity of the HRRR out that far. Also, those of us, myself included that are worried about boundary layer temps really don't need to look at the latest run because it's seriously warm for central NC.

Yeah those HRRR frames for 2m air temp out to the end of the run look off. Almost like its just some normal daytime heating scale. Weird. Could be the southerly fetch as the upper level vortex approaches I guess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, drfranklin said:

Greenville County (SC) schools closed tomorrow (they were planning to decide tomorrow AM)

Please don't let this be a jinx

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I hate to weenie out too bad, but the Hrrr is just crushing mby from 5am to 10am.  It's now got solid 3 to 4 inches total for all of Oconee, Pickens, and Greenville counties. 

Don't worry  about it...you've earned it ;) 

Have to pause to appreciate how wideapread this system is. Its been a while since just about everyone gets something. 

 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, DopplerWx said:

4" for clt on the gfs. up from 2.9 at 18z.

At just 10:1. You average 15:1 and that four tenths is 7.5 inches.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I hate to weenie out too bad, but the Hrrr is just crushing mby from 5am to 10am.  It's now got solid 3 to 4 inches total for all of Oconee, Pickens, and Greenville counties. 
 
HRRRSE_prec_snow_017.png.91af9fb1c797fec35d535c76c451fdaa.png

Hell dude, I’m right with ya. Weenie on.


.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Yeah those HRRR frames for 2m air temp out to the end of the run look off. Almost like its just some normal daytime heating scale. Weird. Could be the southerly fetch as the upper level vortex approaches I guess.

Except winds are from the north most of the event. I honestly can't fathom why it shows rising temps with 0.1"+ liquid per hour rates and a northerly wind from a cold high building in as a lobe of very cold arctic air. It boggles the mind.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Except winds are from the north most of the event. I honestly can't fathom why it shows rising temps with 0.1"+ liquid per hour rates and a northerly wind from a cold high building in as a lobe of very cold arctic air. It boggles the mind.

Between hr 11 and 12 it jumps up in eastern NC and even goes into the 40s after another few hours for some- they may be east of the cold air still, but it still seems too much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

It's a fight between the HRRR/RAP and everything else. Honestly, I'm not sure where to go with this. 00z GFS/NAM/NAM4K held serve and have shown higher precip, colder temps and haven't adjusted the timing much. Usually in these kinds of situations, I expect precip to arrive earlier than expected. But this isn't a normal overrunning event, so I'm not sure.

Never trust HRRR or RAP outside 8 hours. They’re useful under 10 hours but past that they’re prone to being way off with qpf and especially thermals on the HRRR. 3km NAM and RGEM is preferred at this range. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Jet Stream Rider said:

Between hr 11 and 12 it jumps up in eastern NC and even goes into the 40s for some- they may be east of the cold air still, but it still seems too much.

Far enough east they may be out of the clouds, and certainly not precipitating. But I don't see why central NC under clouds and frozen precip should be warming.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, snowlover91 said:

Never trust HRRR or RAP outside 8 hours. They’re useful under 10 hours but past that they’re prone to being way off with qpf and especially thermals on the HRRR. 3km NAM and RGEM is preferred at this range. 

Unfortunately, RGEM is now also showing the warming, albeit not as much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, WidreMann said:

Far enough east they may be out of the clouds, and certainly not precipitating. But I don't see why central NC under clouds and frozen precip should be warming.

It won’t be. Hrrr is terrible with thermals and especially bad when past 8-10 hours. Trust 3km NAM and RGEM for thermals they are money. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Except winds are from the north most of the event. I honestly can't fathom why it shows rising temps with 0.1"+ liquid per hour rates and a northerly wind from a cold high building in as a lobe of very cold arctic air. It boggles the mind.

I just had a flashback to Jan 2017.  Which model had the warm-nose-of-death that we all wanted to discount?  I hope it wasn't the HRRR. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Far enough east they may be out of the clouds, and certainly not precipitating. But I don't see why central NC under clouds and frozen precip should be warming.

They won't be warming... we've seen this with just about every winter storm on the Hrr. It definitely has a surface warm bias in the 12 to 18hr time range.

Honestly, this will give you the best indicator of the battle lines 9 times out of 10:

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, cbmclean said:

I just had a flashback to Jan 2017.  Which model had the warm-nose-of-death that we all wanted to discount?  I hope it wasn't the HRRR. 

I'm almost positive it was the NAM.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Norwegian Cyclone said:

Good precip development continues in the Deep South

CODNEXLAB-regional-southeast-rad-ani24-201801170335-100-100-raw.gif

On the wcu tower webcam it's coming down nice. Met reports moderate snow Haywood County. Both have everything covered up solid now in snow.Should be in Asheville soon. That's telling if you look close at the radar and it doesn't look like much, so imagine when it really gets cranking over head in the morning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, WidreMann said:

Unfortunately, RGEM is now also showing the warming, albeit not as much.

It’s all snow for you and dropping 6-8” across your area and temps are plenty cold aloft and at the surface. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, WidreMann said:

Far enough east they may be out of the clouds, and certainly not precipitating. But I don't see why central NC under clouds and frozen precip should be warming.

Once that frozen glob of arctic gets over us it wont be. Sure there's the old latent heat of condensation, but its not going to make much difference with this air mass. I think the hrrrrrr is just out of its range. Like snowlover91 said, if its past 10 hrs, hrrrrrrr is suspect.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×