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January 12-14 Kitchen Sink Storm Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He nailed the blizzard well in advance, so perhaps we should keep letting him tell us what his weather will be.

I think there was a snowstorm a few days after that that he was all over, too.

If it ends up colder/snowier/more wintry for north-central CT as we approach hour 0, chances will be he called it right, ha ha.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Just realized it was the 3km NAM I was looking at and not the Swiss. Looks cool with the low level cold pouring around the Presidentials leaving IZG/N Conway briefly in a warm bubble.

Le Suisse doing the same thing. But we've seen that actually occur, so I'm definitely buying it. It's pretty rare to see a front barrel through the area unless it's coming from from the northeast or east. Maybe the odd southwest cold fropa.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Sleet doesn't really whiten up the landscape for me. It's going to be cold and the precip will be frozen though.

I'll take sleet over ZR all day long.  I think it's pretty wintry, all frozen QPF is good QPF, ha.

I actually don't mind a good ol' sleet storm for some reason.  Then we can go back to fluffer nutters. 

I'm leaning towards mostly a sleet storm here... I think the BTV forecast of 4" here is pretty solid.  I'll go with 2" sleet and 2" snow or something like that.  0.7" frozen QPF.

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snowgeek

snowgeek

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I'm expecting my 15 inches of snow on the ground to melt, first time seeing grass since November, the temp drop doesn't do much for me unless we had the precip, which we don't. I'm pretty depressed about it this will take a good week to recover at the mountains

I just turned 50, and I think I finally am starting to not let winter disappointment depress me.  Don't get me wrong, I'm still obsessed with snow, xc skiing, downhill skiing, snow chasing, mountains, etc.  Nothing better than the ADk high peaks with 5 feet of base and super fluff on top, but when it comes down to it, it's just the icing on the cake that us "1st worlders" get every day with all of the comforts that we take for granted.  Here's to food, clean water, shelter and health!

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I'm expecting my 15 inches of snow on the ground to melt, first time seeing grass since November, the temp drop doesn't do much for me unless we had the precip, which we don't. I'm pretty depressed about it this will take a good week to recover at the mountains

Glass definitely mostly empty huh?

It's a two day January thaw.  It happens.  We end with some winter weather.  You're going to see a lot more than 2 hours of frozen in Lake George.

Sleet skis really nicely too... it won't take that long if the mountains can get a couple inches of sleet followed by a couple inches of snow.  That'll groom out nicely.  Like sandy texture.

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snowgeek

snowgeek

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Yes the temp drop is nice and all but sensible weather is two hours of IP with a coating

I'll see your 2 hours of frozen and raise you 10 hours, especially up your way.  Any frozen is good as far as I'm concerned. 

I give the solid phase my praise, i'll take pingers or a glaze, if snow can not find it's ways.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Not what I expected with the 18z suite. Riding the 12z euro/EPS with one more 50-100 mile tick SE. Still thinking we see the lead wave dampen further.

That seems like a lot for a 24 hour forecast.  That would mean that what is currently forecast up here would be what LEB-CON zone actually experiences.  That will take some work.

Hopefully you are right, as that would but the NNY snow in my backyard, but I don't see it.

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snowgeek

snowgeek

Posted
Posted

In the late 80's or early 90's we skied into Janack's Landing on Cranberry lake with the intent of spending 5 days ski touring.  We skied in on a 12-15" base.  The next day, it got up into the 60's and poured (February).  Everything melted and there was crazy flooding.  Our lean to was surrounded by water.  The next morning we woke up to -10F and heavy sleet. Everything froze, including my gore-tex jacket.   We skied out on 2" of sleet with no base underneath.  It was super fun /  fast skiing lol.  Major flash freeze.  The next day I got the flu lol.  I bet the storm was similar to this one.  I wish I remembered the year.  I'm thinking 1989 or maybe 1990 or 91.  

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

If it ends up colder/snowier/more wintry for north-central CT as we approach hour 0, chances will be he called it right, ha ha.

If there is like .2" or more accretion, sure.

Difference is I gladly admit when I'm wrong...this all started simply because I expressed the opinion that there would not be damaging ice in most of sne...I didn't attack anyone.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That seems like a lot for a 24 hour forecast.  That would mean that what is currently forecast up here would be what LEB-CON zone actually experiences.  That will take some work.

Hopefully you are right, as that would but the NNY snow in my backyard, but I don't see it.

That move just does not happen inside 24hrs. This isn’t wishing a deform band well NW of guidance in a coastal. We may get a tickle of temps being too warm so the frozen stuff is SE a bit...but you’re not shifting the entire boundry 100 miles at this stage. 

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That seems like a lot for a 24 hour forecast.  That would mean that what is currently forecast up here would be what LEB-CON zone actually experiences.  That will take some work.

Hopefully you are right, as that would but the NNY snow in my backyard, but I don't see it.

Not that much considering GFS op is still nw of the GEFS mean. And the 18z GEFS is pretty close to the12z EPS/Euro. I think we see the rest of guidance shortly fall in line with the 12z EPS/Euro 18z GEFS. And then we can have very minor adjustments from there inside 24 hr.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Not that much considering GFS op is still nw of the GEFS mean. And the 18z GEFS is pretty close to the12z EPS/Euro. I think we see the rest of guidance shortly fall in line with the 12z EPS/Euro 18z GEFS. And then we can have very minor adjustments from there inside 24 hr.

Favoring the usually progressive GEFS on a 36 hour forecast?

This isn't day 5...good luck, though...could def. trend a bit colder, but not wholesale changes.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Stop telling people what the weather will be like in their back yards!!!

:lol: Kev has been pulling hard for a "colder" solution.  Not sure what he means by this.  We have about 48hrs of what I would call pack eating torch(temps/dews/winds/precip).  We will see about 1-4" of rain before the front crashes and changes any remaining moisture over to frozen precip.  This amount will be negligible to what has already fallen.  The biggest impacts to this storm are the pack melt and rains on the roads and rivers.  We need to watch for street flooding as well as ice dams on rivers causing water to overflow banks.

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Dan

Dan

Posted
Posted

Here is the rest of the discussion that he cut off:

  

Freezing Rain...

Assuming there is no ice within the column, colder air undercutting
quickly with favorable lift / ascent aloft prior to dry air eroding
the column, looking at a roughly 3-6 hour window of freezing rain /
drizzle over N/W interior S New England, roughly W of interior Essex
County MA, Worcester and Tolland Hills. There is the potential of
reaching the I-95 corridor, some uncertainty on the speed at which
colder air moves in with precipitation ongoing, but expecting the
column to dry out into afternoon lessening the chance. Collaborating
with WPC and neighboring WFOs, upwards of a tenth of an inch of ice
accretion, the highest amounts in the Berkshires / NW MA, forecast.
Majority of impacts around sunrise into early afternoon drying out
thereafter, perhaps just freezing drizzle lingering before all is
said and done. Held off on WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES as we`re coming
up to a potential flooding event, will let the overnight crew have
another look as the 11.12z NAM / Canadian are a bit faster with the
surface cold front and drying over global guidance.
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